what do equity traders KNOW that miners (HUI) FEAR? as
Safe Harbor premium gets devalued leaving AU to the safety of its Commodity Value.
Check out the 90% decline in the $HUI:$SPX ratio
with the (C)ommodity (V)alue of (A)U or CVA @ $978 yesterday, only Safe Haven Premiums hold AU above $1000 & GS' $1050 prediction of months ago
It seems that the VAMPIRE SQUID might be right....esp if commodities continue to plunge
the realty is that miners have been lagging AU since Nov 2003 when the HUI hit .6% of AU or $HUI:$GOLD
currently @ .101,they are BELOW the 2008 lo. Miners are still above their Sept lo @ .0924 and the trading pattern smacks of a POTENTIAL P&F H&S Reversal formation.
Every reversal pattern over the last 50 month bear mkt has FAILED so the odds favor another abortive conclusion to the current one, but " this time could be different".
talks of a new bull market are ludicrous altho new highs can't be ruled out
you can fool all of the traders all of the time!
Last year's 4th Qtr rally in AU lasted 13 weeks (+ 15.6%) & it took 8 weeks to test that lo in the new year...
This year's 3rd Qtr rally in AU lasted 13 weeks (+11.2%) & has been cancelled out in 3 weeks!
How's that for fine-tuning your manipulative skills?
How's that for strong hands?
AuBugs, thoroughly far down on the endangered species chart!
down 30% from last year's hi &
YET the equities mkt stands within a few points of its dec 2014 close & all-time hi
"the NEW NORMAL" reigns
BUT NOT ANY LONGER.
the RLX hit another all time hi @ #1287.68 on Fri.
but a recent peek behind the curtain revealed who the wizard(s) was... AMZN ! (NFLX)
generate a HLC chart on the $RLX:AMZN and see for yourself..
that explains the new hi vs the reality of the Walmarts-the KOHLS-the MACYS etal
my how the industry has become, as someone recently said, a gambling casino in drag since I entered the security Industry in 1966.!
in the future?
are you kidding?
they have no shame!
their dirty deeds go unpunished!
their blatant intrusion into their beloved "free mkt" orientation flies in the face of their hubris!
they needn't cover their tracks
wjo's to punish them?
they need a good dose of Icelandic justice!
the RISK-OFF Ratio coincidentally probes multi- year hi's!
At 141bps we're above the Jan 2008 level (125bps) on its way to 330bps & the DOW on its way to 6700?
NEW NORMAL or DEJA VU ?
p.s. bear mkt rallies have been known to retrace most or all of the 1st leg down before resuming their cyclical trend
As ugly as today was, today's intra-day range (RIGHT SHOULDER) did not come close to taking out the $28.90 ( LEFT Shoulder ) of the pattern
Grasping @ straws? perhaps but why is it that the electronic trading session provides the cover for the PPT's stop running?
Maybe it's simply the fact that ABX is down 30% from yr ago while GG only 17%
IMHO no resumption of the secular bull mkt in AU can occur with miners not reaching a new hi & breaking the downtrend
CURRENT READING: 43.333%
You are rightly concerned, but this is the 5th bout of underperformance since the move began in Dec 2012.
hopefully " this too shall pass"
Once the neckline @ $48.06 is broken, convincingly, a move to $70 is possible
While AU, the commodity, is within striking level of parity with its yr ago Oct close, MINERS (HUI) stand sickeningly below #156.22
and with earnings due this week for the biggies, any hope of achieving +MoMo+ seems out of the question.
tho AU can turn +++ yr/yr this month, the following months (NOV-JAN) pose quite a hurdle for AU!