I'd be surprised if CELG goes below 114, but who knows. Great company & stock regardless, everyone should buy and hold some shares for the long term.
Thanks for posting about the Fearnley website, it's been frustrating trying to gauge NAO's fleet status. I wish we could find out the dayrate amounts for the NAO fleet too. I disagree with the claims in their press releases that NAO is "very transparent."
It looks like they have 2 PSV's in need of contract (NAO Thunder, Blue Storm), two that have recently started short term contracts (Blue Viking, Blue Protector), and then no status on the remaining 4 (Blue Fighter, Blue Prosper, Blue Power, Blue Guardian)?
I'm concerned that Net Charter Revenue dropped 30% last quarter ($14.3m down to $9.89m), and also that the revenue reduction is as much or more than the 2 newbuilds would add even if fully chartered (for the current quarter they aren't). Even if the 2 newbuilds returned Net Revenue's back to the $14 million's in the current or future quarters, the dividend hasn't been sustainable at that level, I'd have to go check the numbers but I believe it was roughly falling $3mil - $3.5mil short per quarter.
In order to sustainably cover the dividend, right now it's feeling to me like it will take all remaining newbuilds (the last arriving September 2015) operating nearly full time and with no additional material drops in dayrates.
SDRL and LNCO shareholders both asked that same sort of question ("Where are you going to get such a high yield?") several months ago. They also made the same sort of statements about the dividend looking solid.
Just be careful, and IMO don't over-allocate until there's more clarity on the situation, especially since the dividend isn't currently sustainable.
Up until a few months ago, I'd at least have interest in hearing what Gartman had to say when it came to oil and the overall market. He seemed like a seasoned veteran who could keep his cool and objectivity, and would draw upon his decades of experience. And the quips between him and the Fast Money crew were mildly entertaining.
But along the lines of what you are saying, he started becoming more and more over-the-top in his statements, and I started finding his behaviors mirrored the over-emotional, quick-to-overreact, long-term-wisdom-lacking "investor" that we all try so hard to avoid being (but from time to time fail at of course). First I think he said he was totally freaked out by how the market was acting, the sky was falling, and he went totally to cash, a rookie mistake. A week or two later of course the market had bounced very nicely and he looked foolish. Then after his comments roughly a month or two ago about oil being like whale oil and that it was going to go to $10 and never come back and that $30 wasn't the bottom, etc... Well, now I don't even bother listening to him, I just keep fast-forwarding as I do through the commercials. He's truly become worthless.
Though I'm pretty sure he is making $$ starring as that older gentleman on a sofa calling Liberty regarding the one of many different catheters available! (Man what a horrible, over-played CNBC commercial!). Between those commercials and all the cialis/viagra stuff...
You might want to check out Lunco's posts on the Yahoo AI forum, written in maybe the past 30 to 90 mins or so.
It sounds like much of the book value drop may relate to accounting on part of the big tax-loss carryover they've had on their books for years.
Core earnings (which goes towards covering the div) held up great, they have nearly 160% coverage, and management noted in the CC that the increasing spread is positive for earnings. Especially when it comes to mREITs (or mREIT-like stocks, in AI's case), one has to ask how much one cares about book value declines vs. the company's ability to generate profits and cover their div. They tend to move inversely: when the spread widens, profits increase but BV tends to drop. Though in such a case, BV should not move nearly as extreme as what AI's just did, as mentioned that may be a result of 2014 expiration on some of those tax credits per Lunco.
And let's not forget LNCO, with its great 13-14% yield in the $20-22's. Now with its div cut, it still yields 13-14%. Except of course the stock trades at $10, a 50%+ loss of capital. I'm sure we can all do the math regarding how many years of $1.25/yr it takes to make up an $11+ loss of capital...