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BB&T Corporation Message Board

a-mar 93 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2013 6:36 PM Member since: Aug 27, 2002
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  • Reply to

    YOU CAN TAKE ALL YOUR ...

    by nyy00010 Jun 20, 2013 9:12 PM
    a-mar a-mar Jun 21, 2013 6:36 PM Flag

    AGNC is the same market as NLY, but they played it more aggressively. That means they both have the same net rate exposure, only AGNC will have a bigger dose. It's OK as a riskier alternative to NLY, but I don't see much virtue in having both.

    If you want another mortgage REIT, consider diversifying into a variable-rate one like NYMT. NLY's fixed rate portfolio loses value in a rising-rate environment. So it might be wise to diversify with someone who gets the opposite effect.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    When will DLTR get SSS of 4% or higher??

    by tshih_90630 Feb 28, 2013 10:59 AM
    a-mar a-mar Mar 2, 2013 5:54 PM Flag

    [i]"The CEO said that on average each customer was purchasing more "nuggets"."[/i]

    Yes, 2.3% more. You're using a vague description to avoid coming to terms with the numerical fact that growth is slow.

  • Reply to

    Subject

    by a-mar Feb 28, 2013 7:07 PM
    a-mar a-mar Feb 28, 2013 7:08 PM Flag

    Sorry this was meant to be a response to the dividend boost thread. Not used to Yahoo's odd choice of having large "new topic" buttons when viewing a thread.

  • a-mar by a-mar Feb 28, 2013 7:07 PM Flag

    I was worried when they did a tiny boost in 2012. That it happened again is more of a "fool me twice, shame on me" situation.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When will DLTR get SSS of 4% or higher??

    by tshih_90630 Feb 28, 2013 10:59 AM
    a-mar a-mar Feb 28, 2013 7:03 PM Flag

    That's the question, isn't it?

    Nice quarter with the margin improvement, which is tough to do when prices are fixed right in the name. But what was the same store sales growth? 2.3%? The multiple is still way to high to justify that sort of growth.

    I think this recent pop has to be an opportunity to sell, until the multiple comes down or they can demonstrate faster growth again.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • a-mar a-mar Jan 31, 2013 1:54 AM Flag

    Not sure I share your outlook, but he made a cheap shot and good for you. There's no virtue in overbetting.

  • a-mar a-mar Jan 25, 2013 5:35 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, the message board seems to have cut out the part of your post why you explained why this price movement is, or should be, illegal. What's left makes you look like a ranting lunatic.

    It's a shame how a technical difficulty can do that to you. Perhaps the SEC should investigate it.

  • a-mar a-mar Jan 25, 2013 10:10 AM Flag

    No, it's secured by the stock you own. However, if you sell a naked call (which would be more than the one you can cover) then they would require more capital.

  • a-mar a-mar Jan 24, 2013 9:33 PM Flag

    Let that be a lesson to everyone. A full position, PLUS margin, PLUS single calls? Bad bad risk. But you know that now.

    AAPL held $450 today. Tomorrow it either holds that or shows weakness that shows it can sink to $425, where the next support is. My suspicion is that it will hold, and then a bounce will come, but the stock isn't going above $500 this quarter at least.

    You're gonna eat huge decay on that option, especially as the recent volatility comes down. So time is not on your side. Forget $15, if you can get $5 for that puppy you jump on it. If the stock gets into the $480s, you dump that margined stuff, too. Then sell a $500 call, just one against the stock you own, and do it 15-60 days out. That's how you're going to make your money back, by collecting premiums. Repeat that month after month, picking higher strikes if shares start showing momentum gain. Worst case is the stock goes up so you can sell higher, but your goal is to make time work for you instead of against you.

    Morals:
    1. Diversify your holdings.
    2. Don't use margin.
    3. Buy spreads when you're long premium. No sense in being greedy.

  • a-mar a-mar Jan 24, 2013 6:21 PM Flag

    You sound like a great guy, and I wish you the best. But it also sounds like you treated AAPL stock like a magic money machine instead of a investment in a hard-to-measure asset.

    You can't expect a stock price to act a certain way just because you think it should. You don't own public sentiment. You own a piece of a company. If you think the reaction was wrong, then this is your opportunity to buy more and let time prove you right. If you think the reaction was right, then you misjudged what AAPL was and at least you're in good company. And if you were ony investing because you thought good companies can't possibly go down, then be glad you learned here instead of eating an internet bubble-type flash crash.

    Stocks are risky, by definition. (It's actually the owners' job under capitalism - employees and lenders get guarantees, owners take risk in return for everything left over.). If the risk isn't for you, then you're right to get out. Put your money in CDs, or maybe TIPS bonds. But please don't think Wall Street "got" you in some way. You got what you signed up for.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • a-mar a-mar Dec 17, 2012 7:15 PM Flag

    I see some confusion in this thread. If you buy stocks for dividends, you need to understand how they work. There are four dates involved with each div, and two of them are of particular importance.

    Declaration Date
    This is when the company announces the amount and what the other dates are. Even when it's a quarterly dividend that you just expect, there's always a declaration date when they confirm what's going to happen.

    Following the declaration, all brokers are asked to report to the company how many shares are in each persons account. But share are still moving around, and obviously they don't want to count anyone twice. So they pick a specific point in time to do the counting.

    Ex-Dividend Date
    The ex-dividend date is the day after that counting was done. (Hence the "ex".) You must own the stock before this date to be counted as a shareholder for the dividend. As of the ex-dividend date, the headcount was already done and you're too late.

    Then the brokers send the owner data to the company. Although communication is instant nowadays, by tradition there are several days to allow for delays in the process. So they have a

    Record Date
    Which means absolutely nothing to you for the shareholder. It only has meaning for the brokers, who must get their reports in by this date so the company knows who to cut checks to. And then when do the checks go out?

    Payment Date
    This is when the money comes to the people counted way back before ex-dividend. It doesn't matter if you still hold the stock or not. If you were holding into the ex-dividend date, then you're getting your money on this date.

    So for COST's special dividend:
    Declare Date: 11/28. This is when the special dividend was announced.
    Ex-Dividend Date: 12/6. The count was done the night before this, so 12/5 was the latest you could have bought. Anyone holding overnight from 12/5 - 12/6 will be getting a check for $7 which is why COST opened $7 lower.
    Date of Record: 12/10. Meaningless to you.
    Payment Date: 12/18. This is when the cash comes to those owning into ex-div.

    In short, anyone who bought on 12/6 or later got in after the $7 drop because they won't be getting any dividend.

  • a-mar a-mar Dec 17, 2012 6:57 PM Flag

    I got out at $10.80 immediately after the Google fiasco. (My theory being that even though it wasn't a material mistake, it would be bad press that might sour future customers from Edgar or RRD in general.) However, at $8.00 - $8.25 it does represent value again. (Unless there's some news I don't know. I'm guessing this yield-based stock is getting at least a chunk of selling due to tax law changes.)

    There is a point at which cutting the dividend becomes the right play, because a 10% yield with greater solvency may be more desireable than 13% yield from debt. And it wouldn't surprise me if management takes the opportunity of tax changes to declare a reduction. Also with a nasty downtrend since August the sales momentum is still going against it, so I'm not going to rush. I am intrigued, though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I really don't get why the options reset

    by s.p.k Dec 6, 2012 9:56 AM
    a-mar a-mar Dec 7, 2012 7:11 AM Flag

    You're absolutely right, in that if you ever think you found "free money" then it's almost certain you're the one who missed something. So the idea that you could collect a $7 drop for a $1 premium should have been a warning sign.

    That said, the fiscal cliff accelerations have actually created some interesting forecasting situations. A lot of people have tried to predict which companies will accelerate, and in so doing tried to get options that weren't pricing that in. (Which in turn moved their premiums.) So it's kind of a Schrödinger's cat situation - either it happens or it doesn't, and the options are trying to price both ways. So if you think you can predict better, that's an opportunity.

  • Reply to

    I really don't get why the options reset

    by s.p.k Dec 6, 2012 9:56 AM
    a-mar a-mar Dec 6, 2012 6:11 PM Flag

    Easy mistake to make. Regular dividends don't shift the strikes. Accelerated regular dividends don't shift the strikes. But special dividends do. (Because they're too unpredictable to expect the options to have priced them in.)

    However, technical support before a special div doesn't tend to be that reliable, either. For example, look at DPZ after their special div in March. It declined right past the previous support, before setting a new bottom for a good run. Which means you might hit that 93 for COST, despite where support was before. Buyers are less likely to come in at the same price now that there's $7 of debt in place of cash. (I have the 98-93 put spread myself.)

    You'll want to be careful holding through January though, as the last month Theta will eat you. I'd look to close the position around Dec expiration or at least roll or spread it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Republicans Desperately Need a Scandal

    by sixgunsarnmy Nov 16, 2012 9:46 PM
    a-mar a-mar Nov 19, 2012 5:54 PM Flag

    Maybe I'm thr idiot here ... but dafuq does this have to do with Tibco?

  • a-mar a-mar Nov 19, 2012 5:51 PM Flag

    Well they beat guidance that had been lowered twice, so that's not so great an accomplishment. At $38 it was definitely good value. (I sold a bunch of $37.5 puts, a much bigger position than I usually take, and am very happy.). But that's more to do with the serious knockdown it had taken than with pure performance. If you check the chart, you'll see DLTR could run to $45 from here and not even break the downtrend!

    This stock is fine for a short-term trade, and I genuinely like the stores. But I think the sector needs capitulation on multiples before it becomes a longterm investment again.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Nothing goes up in a straight line

    by mick188125 Nov 16, 2012 10:55 AM
    a-mar a-mar Nov 18, 2012 8:53 PM Flag

    In fact, I'm curious about how saturated we are already. So I did a search of my area, suburban NJ. Within 5 miles of me are 12 dollar stores:
    4 Dollar Tree
    3 Dollar General
    1 Family Dollar
    4 lesser-known variants

    Then I checked another location, where my parents live (different part of NJ). In about a 6-mile radius, 13 dollar stores:
    4 Dollar Tree
    2 Family Dollar
    1 Dollar General
    6 other

    Now these are not urban-density areas, nor are they particularly low income. (Median household income for both counties are around $60k, though I confess my family probably drags down the neighborhood. :) ) If there are that many stores that close together, in an area we must agree is not the first choice in demographics, how many more can they fit in?

    They best DLTR can really hope to do now is steal business from lesser competitors. And IMHO they are the best of breed from a customer's POV. But this kind of slugfest is slower than finding new areas, and much harder on margins.

  • Reply to

    Nothing goes up in a straight line

    by mick188125 Nov 16, 2012 10:55 AM
    a-mar a-mar Nov 17, 2012 2:18 AM Flag

    Well it's certainly a lot more attractive than it was 4 months ago. But what growth rate are you assuming to get those values?

    Same store grew less than 2%, and while they're still opening new stores we really need to worry about saturation. Margins are decent, but you also have to expect pressure there for a chain that can't just sneak in price increases. I'll assume a 7.5% sustainable growth rate, giving earnings next year around $2.85 (which is above estimates).

    So the most I would pay, a PEG of 2.0, is $42.75.

  • a-mar a-mar Oct 19, 2012 10:03 AM Flag

    You played it better than me, then. :) My $260 calendar got overshot and with terrible bid/ask spreads I'm barely breakeven. For as high profile as this stock is, it's really hard to get in and out of the options.

  • a-mar a-mar Oct 19, 2012 9:54 AM Flag

    BTW, when I say "suggest" I mean that's what I would do, not that this is actual "advice". I don't need the SEC coming after me. ;)

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