Check out what the WMC mean targets were in 2013 and tell me you trust those numbers again
You are truly #$%$ if you think this stock is going to trade at a premium to BV (NYMT it is not) and if you think a SA blog is what stopped WMC from going higher you are stupider than I thought you were. A hold reiteration by a major ratings group and the fact that the stock is horribly overbought on a technical basis is the reason for it. It will conitune to muddle in a 10% discount to BV range until such time as headline interest rate risk based on past fed statements are over (not happening) or dividend is raised on a sequential basis (grossly unlikely any time dsoon). Dream your silly dreams, I bought in the low 14s and sold out at 14.80, its a trading stock, not a long term hold until managemtn shows it can transition a difficult environment (hasn't yet, last 2 Q were easy environment). Get in when the market says to, get out when it says to! Marry a stoick and lose your shirt.
Technically it is not a reit, it is a note that promises to pay 2x the coupon rate of the payout on the Market Vectors® Global Mortgage REITs Index less fees. UBS is not required to hold the actual index but may, and probably does, but may also "own " by using options.
Well, the note is for only 30 years so you have 1 problem already :). And if UBS goes #$%$ up, all note holders are screwed.
Unemployment claims fall, 4 wk at a 8 yr low, more pressure by Dallas fed chair Fisher on Yellen to tighten! And what is this #$%$ about euro denominated cmbs??? Great, euro currency risk?? What were they thinking? And back up to 8x leverage, very dangerous levels. And way too much dabbling in TBAs, not sure they have the experience for that, even agnc had problems with them once. Way out there on the risk curve.
SA author posits nav and sp decrease due to PHK overly large premium being significantly lowered. YMMV, it is SA. 13.5 to a bit over 12 drop on phk in about a week or so.. that will hurt.
Not a short myself just experienced with wmc, One day you MIGHT be correct. Hasnt happened yet though are we at 22 yet?
Fear is always more powerful than greed. Lot of fear in the sectors vulnerable to interest rate risk.
No need, mgmt will still need to have a good concall and they have shown no past ability for that, Assuming bv 15.50 10 percent discount to book leaves value at 13.95, hardly a target to be excited about. Still a falling knife, still way below 200 day average, see what happened to nly and agnc after good results on their calls. Does not bode well for wmc. still wanna talk about that $22 call you made? and still way below the 14.10 floor you posited post divvy. Advice still good, Wait for mgmt to perform. and provide a clear path fwd in case of rising rates. Good luck with that.
Riiiight, thats why the SP still is bumping along $2 below the offer price from the last SPO, it was just brilliant!
WMC: Double Digit Return In 30 Days With Western Asset Mortgage Capital
Cannot wait for that ex date end of August! What a buffoon! Did you write that one Jack?
You know it will