Yesterdays Eco indicators were off the chart bullish. Today China interest rates, Draghi comments, fall in dollar are all ingredients for another record close. But the market is watching oil. So what we could see in the final hours is a short covering in oil which will spike SP futures and the market should be up 150.
We will be much higher then this as part of the 26% short interest starts to cover on the way to buy out from approved drug with only two companies in the space.
Not sure it is Wall Street. This stock has a tendency to trade up ahead of news as insiders position themselves and then consolidate a few points on that news.
CLVS will be bought out as the cost for development by another mega-pharma is huge compared to cost of purchasing a proven and approved product. Whether its next week, month or year, you should see $120 per share when the bidding ends.
For the last 5 years I have seen individual stocks and the whole market "price-in" everything short of nuclear warfare, yet the valuations and stocks prices seem to move up endlessly.
HLF has everything on the table. The SEC investigation has been priced in, the .06 loss has been priced in, the forward guidance has been priced in.
Here is what has not been priced in. The SEC settlement, Ackmans; $1B cover, Materials being purchased in countries with currency issues, increased sales personnel in Asia.
This stock has overshot the downside and based on all the positives not priced in, we could see a double in short order, especially with all the new shorts joining the party that is ending for them.
I have been in and out of many stocks over the last 20 years and have visited and read many Yahoo stock message boards, but I have never seen someone post so much, so often and with such spin as Texexec.
It is my personal opinion that when you spend so much time, effort and creativity to "chat" a stock down you with have an enormous short position or you are on the payroll for someone who does. This is not charity work because he believes he is doing society a favor, but strong financial motivation.
In terms of the stock, there are other stocks out there with higher multiples. questionable business practices, criminal mgmt., no earnings, without substantial short position and without a proven product that have both much higher stock price and do not have anyone similar to Texexec on the message board.
Bottom line is to take his comments and those of Alpha in prospective. Just like the political spinning we are seeing with the elections today, anyone can take any facts and spin them positively or negatively. What you have to keep in mind before forming your own opinion is what exactly is the motivation of the poster or publisher.
Also, this is why the NYSE and other exchange put into effect circuit breakers. They knew that since computers and not humans were making the trades, they would need to power down the system and recalibrate the programming as to stop the crash. This only happens when the market falls, not when the market is rising.
In essence humans make decisions the same way, except we do not do it at the speed of a computer, nor do we have access and the processing capability of all the data that feeds the programs. Do you realize that the programming is propriety and the programmers have to sign a NDA?
any different then video poker, roulette or buying a lottery ticket?
You can argue the bull or bear side all day, but at the end of that day, unless you are the guy who set the parameters for the Algo, how do you know the direction of the market?
You can say never fight the Fed, but that is ending soon. You can say historically when the Fed took away QE the market corrected an average of 15%. You can say that profits are strong even though companies are using cash to buy back stock rater then hire employees which creates the look and feel of higher EPS. All of this is valid but when you watch the Algo melt the market up day after day and the HFT traders jump the bid to feed the Algos into moving higher, how is this any different then gambling?
Wall Street fund managers are now chasing performance even though last Wed the market has lost all their gains for 2014. Understand that they do not have one penny at risk in this overbought, overpriced, overFED, market. What they do have at stake is their bonus. So unless they outperform, they will not make a portion of the millions in trading commissions that their house makes. So it is a win-win for those you have entrusted your life savings and retirement with. If they lose it for you, that is the risk you take, but they assume no risk for buying high multiples, in a disinflation economy, with Europe and Asia moving into recession and depression, with rates going higher and housing going lower, with no wage growth and not quality jobs. These earnings beats are just above the extremely lowered expectations that were never priced into the stock to begin with, although the professionals will always tell you in priced in, as well as massive amounts of leveraged capital buying back shares to create a false higher EPS, so the "C" class can make their bonuses.
It is low volume static and since ATT missed, along with IBM, MCD and the low quality of YHOO earnings, you will see selling in Asia tonight and Europe tmrw with futures selling off.
I was just watching two imbeciles on CNBC telling everyone to buy without worrying about anything. I remember last week that these experts were staining their pants not knowing how low it would go. It occurred to me that it is easy to tell everyone to buy when it is not their money at risk.
This leads to me to conclusions which are consistent with the last dive the market took in 2008:
1. Every two hundred points down, the experts said if you liked it last week you have to love it this week at these sale prices.
2. While they were telling the retail to buy, they were unwinding their premier customers, while the houses they were working for, were shorting the markets.
With a 50% retracement of the loss from last weeks recovered, shorts have covered and with Draghi's plan for the EU look for continued weakness for the remainder of the week.
how soon the panicked bulls forget. just last week everyone was saying we go lower and now 4 days later, everything is back to normal with the Algos driving the market higher on light volume, with the bell weathers reporting poor earnings. Even though all of 2014 gains were lost through Wednesday last week, there appears to be a sense that it is clear sailing ahead even with the wind down this month of QE.
CNBC are just talking heads. Its all about ratings. It is an entertainment station, not news station. Just when they got rid of Maria Bartiromo and you thought you heard the last of "we are well off the lows" every day, they recruit a new bunch of no-nothings, with little or no economic/financial formal education. It is all spin.
That's all this market has been. Its like bait fish panicking and moving in large schools in one direction and then the next. Everyone is following the money which equates to following the Algos. Computers are the only traders in this market creating premiums to the underlying stocks and again on low volume they move the stocks up a few points with lack of sellers to close the premium. Last week, everyone was panicking, this week, everything is fine.
the Algos that are driving the market higher on losses in both IBM and MCD get the programming information to stop the move higher. What is unusual to me is the 2.1 million SPY buy AH yesterday when the SPY was 190.80. This leads me to believe that one of the big Fed receivers got the word that the Algos were being reprogrammed to move the market higher today. The SEC never investigates this type of activity from GS, ect, but will certainly go after the little guy who buys 10 options contracts because he read something on a stock chat thread.
What you are seeing on this 3rd day of short covering is purely computer driven trading and front running HFT that are jumping the bids to get the Algos to push even higher.
Food, energy, housing, medical, clothing or IPads?
If the market sees disinflation, we go lower.