With the meeting out of the way, the current sell off in the VIX, stabilization of bond yields, the follow through we will see in Asia and Europe and the end of year tendency to rally, we should see continued strength in the market through Friday and into year-end.
The real story is the leveraged buy out and additional financing now that we have clean audit. This could open at $95 in the morning after everyone reads the potential
There is no inventory at several trading houses. We could see a record close if we pull any inventory from the day trading shorts. They do not want to sit over the weekend and have news released before Monday's open.
Since everyone can see we still have the HTB designator on this stock, lets all pull our sell orders at 3 PM and see if it has any impact. If anyone has level II, there are only small lots, no big fund or institution orders and at this time of day, the day traders need to cover.
With 4 mil volume trading I believe we have a combination of profit takers from the last 8% up and short sellers trying to pick the top. In seeing how HLF has traded over the last few months we could see news at any time including over the weekend and additional comments from the heavy hitters still in. This would equate to another 10% up quickly. Anyone short and up 3% in a day trade position will likely cover before the close.
Belgian commercial law is consistent with US law. This was one of the biggest unknowns that is disappearing. The audit results will be clean since the original audit report was not an issue of content but rather of conflict of interest. This stock may see $80 by Friday.
The explanation is simple. You SELL puts when you think the stock is going higher and you SELL calls when you think the stock is going lower. The puts will expire worthless if the stock moves above the put price on the expiration date.
discounts and subsidizing accounted for them beating by .01. Ask any young person and HP is the last thing they want for xmas. They lowered full year estimate range and took some tax credits to make number. Look for a lower sp from here
..everyone that CNBC parades in says the market goes higher
.. VIX is close to historical lows
.. volume does not confirm the move
.. day after day records while fundamentals remain weak
.. Europe markets consolidate
.. Fed buys SPY, continues to print money and prop market with QE
.. any no one expects it
The market will be down 500 points in minutes and then you will wring your hand and ask why you didn't lock in 20% profits for the year
I have heard since 2008 about all the money on the sideline that is coming into the market. New Flash, it is not.
People are smarter and understand that these low volume rallies are just the Fed buying futures. Nothing underneath this market as support other then QE and zero interest rates.
Maria will probably still be saying the day the dow drops 2000 points, when we are only down 1900 points that "we are off the lows"
This party is going to be ending soon and 90% of the people with the "don't fight the fed" attitude and going to suffer the casualties of their decision.
They are having a discussion about the fundamentals say the market goes higher but the technical say lower. What fundamentals say higher except infinite QE? UE at record, consumer spending down, consumer savings up, consumer credit low, housing lower, quality of corp profits lower, philly fed lower, inventories up.
This cheerleaders need to be taken off the air.
Jobless claims represent new and existing claims of people of work, meaning consumers who spend money. Since there are no extentions and people stopped looking for work two years ago, this number represents a misrepresentation of the current employment situation.
Philly Fed represents the actual activity which historically can be extrapolate to other regions.
So we rally on a number which means nothing and ignore the number that means everything.
The Fed will tapper sooner then later although they are throwing the kitchen sink at conveying that just because they stop tapering they will no increase rates. This market is only up on taper, not real profits, economic expansion and americans feeling good about the economy of the US.
What do you base that theory on? QE is putting liquidity into the market. We saw just the fear of taper in September caused rates to rise.
They are going to taper, not if, but when and it looks like by year-end. They buffer this statement by saying that it doesn't mean that federal funds rates (Fed interest rate) is going to rise, but the market should understand that once taper begins, market interest rates will rise dramatically.
Banks want this to add margin to their business, but this will crush housing and consumer credit spending. They are caught between a rock and a hard place.
With equities at record levels based on QE, the upside potential is limited and downside may also be limited to 40%.
I think that Bernanke is speaking this evening. Here is the mistake that retail investors are making in following the momentum caused by zero rates and QE: when the professionals push the sell button and there is a rush to the exits, the retail investors will be at their jobs and hear about it after it drops 1,200 points. Then the margin calls will push it down another 1,00o points because margin purchases are at records.
This free money will have to end eventually and it will not be pretty. If not, explosive inflation in the US, the dollar will no longer be the world's currency and/or Fed Balance sheet will cripple the US public.
They try to take the froth out of the market, but no one wants to listen to reason and for the party to be over. So enjoy your paper profits, because it is not a question of if, only when the mechanism that has keep this market at record levels with record unemployment, falling profits and contraction of consumer credit.