yes, it is much easier to prescribe new drug to new patients rather than switch an old patient off Renvela that worked for years, makes sense
I don't think markets are ready to go higher, after pretty bad 5 day sell off we are barely dancing round zero on the day 6, this time around that correction talk could be real, especially in Biotech, let's see how GILD does tonight
the problem is Renvela and to lesser degree insurance coverage, doctors are conservative people, you have very ill people that take a lot of medications, these poor people live on fragile chemical balance, these patients been taking Renvela or other binders for years and it worked, now new binder comes in, no responsible doctor would be rushing to switch his patients, the iron benefit aspect is important but it takes time until doctors gradually would be willing to try this new binder..
many people, including analysts, over estimated the power of iron benefit, yes on the paper it sounds good and can provide important savings but this is not math problem we are solving, this is real people, very sick people, and no doctor will be quick to change medications, it will take time, 1-2 years perhaps, assuming Kerx's drug works well and feedback is positive you will see gradual increase in adoption, I am guess new patients is who you have to go after first, new dialysis patients will be the driving force for this new drug
free samples is center piece of any new drug marketing program, they can run for as long as 3 years or more, they are part of the game, you can't blame bad script numbers on the free samples in my opinion, scripts are where they are because of other reasons, and the small dip we seen is more seasonal in nature I think, in July/Aug there are fewer doctors in offices, vacation time for sales people as well
to be honest there is nothing new there, and still there was not given good explanation on why 120mg did not work, just handwaving argument that such think happened in the past is not very comforting, it is hard to invest in something that I do not understand, it goes against my intuition, I don't have much issue with the fact that part of the trial was unblended and 60mg shows good efficiency and much better safety profile, this is all very good, but that 120mg placebo is concerning
QCOR was making tons of cash every quarter, I was long QCOR, nothing similar between QCOR and Kerx except large short interest
when company is not generating sales technicals will not save you, week ago techicals were all good indicating start of an up trend and see what happened
yes Dave, someday perhaps, I am just in dark mood tonight, did you load up on IDRA? it should more than cover for any potential loss in Kerx
Janet, it is selling off because scripts are shrinking instead of growing and we just had 2 downgrades, c'mon this sell off should not surprise anybody except paid pumpers who work for a long fund and keep going in circles blaming some evil manipulation
Dave, who will pay 2B for a company that barely generates 640K a month in sales?
buckle up, the $8 is not the bottom, this is shaping up to be a long summer, until scripts turn around which I think happens only in mid September we will continue trending lower, feel bad for people on margins
most ESRD patients are already taking some binder like Renvela and been taking it for years, they are comfortable taking it, ok with side effects and the co pay, Kerx yet to prove that their binder is significantly better and will not cost more to the patient, it takes time
judge the message by its content/merit, who cares about the motives of the poster, we are all anonymous here, also witch hunting on the message board will not help the stock price, this is just silly exercise
scripts numbers going lower, we just had two downgrades yesterday and today's script numbers confirming that sales are not growing at all, what the heck did you expect?
you thought some positive regulatory opinion in EU will change the negative trend? grow up, you are clueless, widely expected events have no impact on the stock price and Kerx is all about generating sales not getting another approval, the phase of playing approval run ups ended last September...
now we are in the "show me" phase and so far Kerx has shown the company can NOT generate decent sales, traders every day looking for a weak stock to short and at the moment Kerx is a very weak stock, naturally it is easy targets for the shorts, but this is not evil manipulation, this is simply how markets work!!
getting tired or this constant complaining about manipulation, the stock is at $9 because the script numbers are not good, get over it!!
yes, I am aware of that, part of this is seasonal weakness, July/August generally the most "vacationing" months, but one thing for sure there I no positive momentum for the scripts at the moment, we are stuck a little bit