when you have a stock that is trading close to a P/E of 1 who cares what analysts think. Just close your eyes and buy :) . These are the same analysts that are causing a bubble in the US by advising clients to buy stocks like GPRO that have a stock price that is 13,000% above its book value.
Nice to see someone who understands how cheap Gazprom has become.. I try to explain this to others and as soon as they hear Russia they immediately stop listening. You don't have to agree with the politics to know this is an absurd valuation. I doubt we will ever see second most profitable company in the world trade at a 450% discount to it's book value ever again. In fact, by next year Gazprom may very well be the most profitable company in the world (definitely by 2017 with the China deal) surpassing Apple and it's market cap is not even in the top 100.. That is mind boggling. I know you can't compare Apple to Gazprom, but since it's the only other company that earns more money this is like buying apple at 4 dollars/share (if you use book value) or 6/dollars per share (if you used earnigns). insane.
CJES is getting cheap... Forward earnings of only 8 and nearing it's book value. Main risk is if oil dips below 70/barrell and fracking comes to a hault. My value play is gazprom (OGZPY). P/E is close to 1 if you use EBITDA (P/E of 2 after taxes and depreciation) and it's book value is only 0.2. Of course it's in Russia so that's the reason for the 500% discount to book value. But it's one insane value play.
CJES held up better than many other fracking companies that aren't diversified. For instance Carbo Ceramics fell 70% from it's highs on the downturn in oil prices. Big question is at what oil price does fracking become unprofitable. Maybe 70? Maybe 80? Time will tell...
The exporters like Gazprom definitely benefit from currency exchanges immensely. Some Russian stocks are domestic, but oil and gas should be 30% higher now than 3 months ago just based on the ruble collapse. The problem is Russians are having to liquidate assets to get US dollars to pay their debts and this is creating a once in a lifetime discount in their stock market.
Very true... buying up rubles could prove very profitable to Russia once sanctions are lifted and once oil prices recover. I would much rather be buying Russia at these all time lows than US stocks at these all time inflated book values.
Look at a long term chart on TVIX... it's down about a 100,000% in the last few years... why would you trade something that just doubled but always loses money??? Lottery odds are better...
Buy more while under 7... Every 2 wks I'm adding to my position as long as OGZPY stays in single digits. Hope it stays here for awhile longer....
100 per barrel for Saudia Arabia to balance their budget. They can't allow prices to stay below 90 for long.
I've read similar articles. Russia seems to be taking steps to try to lift sanctions. That may help the situation. Oil can't stay below 100 for long or a lot of countries will get hurt beyond just Russia and Iran. Saudia Arabia has a budget that needs 100 dollar oil too to break even so unless the US is financing the drop in prices they can't keep it up for long..
I believe the issue is Oil Prices have to be above 90/barrel to make projects profitable. Right now Oil prices have dropped from 110 all the way down to 85. You can bet when OPEC meets in November they will cut supply to raise prices back up to 100 or else oil countries will go bankrupt.
Oil prices have come down 20% from their peak, so I could see a similar drop happening to CJES. But CJES is down closer to 35% from its peak. Any other news for CJES bringing down its price?
3.1 Billion US dollars to be paid to Gazprom by end of year (with help of European loan to the Ukraine) and 1.9 Billion in prepaid Gas (minimum) to be delivered between now and March. That's 5 Billion in profits the stock market was not expecting for Gazprom over the next 6 months. Not to mention a further deescelation in the crisis. Add on top of that EU is going to discuss lifting sanctions next month. You would expect a 20% or more gain in the stock price over the next week once this deal is finalized if this was a normal stock. Come to think of it, it this was a high flier US stock it would triple next week :)
Amazing that america prints money out of thin air with nothing to back it up and the ruble is being panic sold to exchange for US dollars despite Russia having no debt. Sweet deal for America though. Makes you almost think America orchestrated this entire Ukraine crisis.
and people will continue to raise up the prices of GPro, Pandora, and others that trade at 100 times book value...
And somehow this is disappointing? On pace for 35 to 40 Billion of profits this year in a challenging environment, and it's market cap remains only 80 Billion! buy more