"If this market falls it will be the first time put buyers have been right since the '87 crash."
Random remains the king of making stuff up. The put call was massive in mid September 2008. The S&P fell 25% in the next 3 weeks.
"i like to round things also. to say 43 and 30 are pretty close sounded like a stretch."
Then it's a good thing I didn't say that. I said it's verging on a neutral sentiment reading. As in, not playable as a sentiment reading. Because sentiment is playable at extremes.
"yeah, it looks just saw, -8 for US, -12 for Canada. that's -20."
You're not separating out oil and gas rigs. Oil is plus one in the US, minus 9 in Canada.
"since when is a 13 point spread verging on insignificant?"
Sentiment is playable at extremes. 43 to 30 is not in that vicinity, in my book.
I think it's minus 8 for North America, with all of the minus coming in Canada. U.S. was plus one. If I'm reading it right.
Let me amend that. I can't say "it's not going to happen", I'm not Kreskin. I consider it hugely unlikely to happen. A lot of people who have never been right in their lives would have to be extremely right.
"Expect huge squeeze into next days- weeks, and trend up into future."
People here not only expect it, they are counting on it. That's why it's not going to happen. It's not enough for a stock to be heavily shorted, it has to be the right shorts. If HR, Rails, and Finster were posting 15 times a day on why the stock will crash, your call would make enormous sense.
The difference is retail hates ACI and loves BTU. $5 is not going to happen with the current retail cheerleading corps on board.
Pretty fascinating that the one guy who has called the stock perfectly for *years* still gets completely brushed off here.
On the weekend, it was roughly 64% saying the market will continue down and 16% saying it would go back up. Among tonight's respondents, 43% say down and 30% say up. Verging on a neutral reading, which is incredible when you think of the apocalyptic atmosphere Monday.
In other news, sure looks to me like Dez absolutely crushed it this week. Short into the nosedive, called the bottom pretty much to the hour, covered into it and went long into a monster spike. Can't do much better than that.
I think the Saudis are just doing what any other suffering commodity country must do right now. They're not the swing producer anymore, the U.S. is.
Not his first ill-fated ride:
Did Anyone Hear?
by sballen123 • Jan 8, 2014 3:17 AM
That I just loaded up on some april and jan 2015 calls. The coal train is getting ready to take off. Don't get left in the dust.
Allllllll Aboarddddd, chooo chooooo
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"I can't be. when I saw the news, the stock price was 1.50 around. Why he pays premium of double, non-sense. revisit your idea"
Chris, you're mistaken. The 'news' was the release of SEC filings of trades made months earlier. You are welcome to read the filing, it's public. He bought a little over a million shares. He paid a little over 2.25 million dollars. Price: 2.19.
"Last three days down are on big volume, especially for the summer, especially August. Always against the odds to call a crash, but this kind of volume puts that risk on my mind."
FWIW, in 2011 we put together a few volume days like this and the next day was down 7%. VIX spiked from 32 to nearly 50 that day. The crash was an excellent buy. No idea what value this one example has if any but it's a scenario that happened. In 1987 we had a crash just like that but then crashed 20% the day after that.
In 2008, the worst we have seen, you wanted to wait for the 60 VIX before trying to trade or (average in long term) from the long side.
"Bad year for the markets means bad for the party in power. Republican pres in 2016!?"
I don't think there's much proof of that correlation for the White House.