"Either the market is going to be higher in a year or two or it won't make any difference because money will be worthless."
Totally false dilemma.
Poor, poor Rails (literally). Great Lakes ice cover 79% 2 years ago, 48% 1 year ago. 6% today.
Similar collapse in his "global cooling portfolio".
Now he exploits marine valor to push his floundering agenda, like the #$%$ stain he has always been.
What a mess.
As long as they don't cut the dividend, I'm happy.
Wonder why Rails no longer uses his go-to example of the Great Lakes. Maybe this is why.
Great Lakes ice cover on this date in 2014: 62%
Great Lakes ice cover on this date in 2015: 38%
Great Lakes ice cover today: 5%
One day Rails will make a call that is not a disaster. Maybe. OK, doubtful.
"Maybe it depends more on Saudi Arabia? It's less low global demand than over production."
U.S. is far more the swing producer than SA now. Remarkable that there has been so little supply response here to a 70% price drop. The absence of that U.S. response, even with big shale producers teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, is keeping the price down.
What is not clear to me is how much of their 'earnings' is from share creation.
Since 2013 they have created roughly $185 million in shares and added about the exact same in book value.
"Trump says a threatened blizzard on caucus day could threaten his victory. Just think, global cooling is now helping the lefty causes."
The Rails conceit is that a blizzard in February has to be "global cooling". There is no way to overstate how stupid that is.
"Not much has changed since my last report, but that snow in South East Asia, Taiwan and other places that are not supposed to see snow is really shocking a lot of people."
Translation from Railese: it's warm in North America and Europe.
Great Lakes ice cover on this date 2 years ago: 52%
Great Lakes ice cover on this date 1 year ago: 37%
Great Lakes ice cover today: 9.8%
Simply put, the Rails Ice Age isn't happening. And the Rails "Global Cooling Portfolio" is, of course, a disaster.
" get used to it because it will be like this for the next 400 years."
Rails couldn't make a successful prediction for 2 days let alone 400 years.
Warm weather around the Great Lakes has hit the poor guy hard. And I use the term 'poor' literally.
"That's a large part of why Teck is in trouble today. Similar to 2008, when Teck bought Fording at top of the market pricing"
Great point. It's not just one blunder, it's a pattern. It's very clear that they don't know how to navigate commodity investments.
Fort Hills is a staggering write off, imo. Canadian oil sands is not viable in the shale/electric vehicle era.
One of the many, many things Rails doesn't grasp is that it's not that cold. That's why the snow is so heavy, and in NJ much of it fell as rain and there is severe flood risk.
"I'm sure by now most of you are aware of that killer Global Cooling storm"
I see, so the secret is to take a normal noun and put 'Global Cooling' before it.
Hey, Rails, how are you coping with your catastrophically huge Global Cooling losses on your ill conceived Global Cooling portfolio?
"The share price will reflect the dilution accordingly."
Share price is beside my point. My question was whether the balance sheet reflects it accordingly.
If they had issued 185 million of stock to the free market and made (say) 100 million in earnings- and none of the money was distributed- then net assets should increase by 285 million dollars. If it only increases by 185 million, then for me the earnings are still an open question.
Very open to explanations. Thusfar nobody has chosen to step up.
"Lots of snow all over the place, and report on animals dying in Mongolia due to the snow."
Did any animals die from the heat last summer?