Joe, your very accurate 'situation looks to be truly dire" presents a bit of a sentiment argument. Bankruptcy is becoming consensus, "coal is dead", China is "over", and the usual cast of pumpers has gotten fairly unpopular. The stock could make a 50% up move from here on any whiff of survival and it wouldn't even show up on the long term chart.
Would be a stronger argument if History, Rails, etc. were no longer here pumping. And unfortunately, sentiment can't prevail if a stock goes to zero and no longer trades. But it's an argument with some merit, imo.
Good conspiracy explanation. Here's another possibility: retail is the dumbest of dumb money and has no idea what it's doing nor talking about.
"I want to see half those yeses...or is this already bullish from your experience with these polls?"
It didn't scream anything at me, Dez. Over 30% wanted to buy, and it's hard to believe that wouldn't be higher if there weren't 2 versions of 'no' on the ballot. 60-40 is not an actionable kind of sentiment number.
Excellent call, ccpro.
The conversation here feels a lot like the one on the BTU board the last couple of years, where a crowd of bulls shrugs off every massive decline with phrases like "best in breed" and "last man standing". BTU now trades for close to $1.
"Trump is still rising in the polls to the shagrin of all the GOP Candidates and Hillary Clinton."
I think Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party are absolutely ecstatic about the Trump situation. It's as though a live grenade was released in the Republican tent. They could not have asked for a better scenario.
Yahoo Finance did some polling on this today. Never understood why their polls always have three options, two of which are basically the same.
As U.S. crude inventories rise and the oil glut continues, is it time to buy oil cheap?
30 days remaining
Oil hasn't bottomed yet (2003)
"That warrants some discussion of these facts. The last time NG was $5 was 2009. BTU had $2.20/share in free cash flow and the share price climbed from $25 to $45 over the course of the year."
That's why I said 'most of these companies', and you didn't endeavor to look at the point I was responding to.
If the point I was making was that BTU can't make money if NG goes back to $5, that would be an excellent response.
Throwing around numbers with no regard for context does not constitute substance. It's gibberish.
"He is still more popular on this board than you'll ever be because you bring NOTHING to the table and he does."
That is one expensive popularity prize.
"I'm saving your post for future reference."
Why? To see if his lifetime prediction record goes from 0-75 to 0-76?
Suffice it to say, HR's ability to divine the future is not as magical as he would have you believe.
"who would you sell this etf to? There will be no liquidity. No market. You holding will become worthless overnight. The leveraged etf co's will cease to exist."
2008 was a very real market crash and this ETF went up about 170% from its 2007 low.
"This is not normal market behavior."
That's highly debatable. Most of these companies had negative cash flow when NG was $5. Is a move from $2.80 to $2.90 more significant than creeping insolvency?
A lot of people don't want big stuff anymore, they want small stuff. Huge part of the under-40 generations has chosen walkable cities, car sharing, Uber, etc. and wants to spend its time on Facebook and its money on iPads and Starbucks and NFLX. btw, you'll notice FB, AAPL, NFLX and SBUX all at or near all time highs. F and GM are languishing.
For example, if you look at airlines over the past couple of years, they've done pretty well. Hotels have done OK in that time frame. But rental car companies have been annihilated. Clearly people are traveling. But the car business has been disrupted.
"Moose, what part of the words "stable" and "remain within current ranges" do you not understand? I understand very clearly. It's not complicated."
Clearly there is plenty you have not understood over the past 3 years and plenty that Moose did. For example, almost everything.
So I'd give Moose a little more benefit of the doubt.
Agree with your take, bj. Those Greece/China market lows would be pretty tough to break convincingly without more rallying to wring out some bearishness. Maybe 50 to 75 S&P points? Just going on what has happened after similar VIX spikes over the past couple of years.
"Guys, don't laugh TOO hard at Rails. Well informed scientists are entertaining the idea of a mini ice age in the next 20 years."
I doubt anything directed at Rails has to do with the idea of an ice age generically. We've had ice ages, we'll have ice ages.
It's about listing cold places, making up numbers, infusing this 'science' with politics and occasional racism, being almost the exact mirror image of Al Gore while insulting Al Gore, clumsily trying to reconcile all of it to disastrous BTU buys, continuing to dispense investing advice while being underwater on pretty much everything he has ever bought. I've probably left some things out.
"do you think the Chinese care about "less toxic" hahahahaha. Really....only thing that matters to the Chinese, Indians, Indonesians is "Less Cost""
I think they do care now, tri, because they're starting to infer that environmental degradation has a financial cost.