They missed earnings because they had more stock on the open market. So, did they really miss or not? Seems to be a matter of opinion, but to me, the revenue and actual dollar amount they made shows they didn't miss earnings.
For the last week or so, investors just threw away millions of dollars worth of value in ABTL for no reason other than the stock wouldn't go higher for the time being. ABTL investors always need pumping up on a daily basis, otherwise they just dump the stock.
Now that the naysayers have kicked the #$%$ out of the price of the stock again, the price is really looking good. The public responds to good news articles and then loses interest. They'll be back again and have to pay more for the same stock they just decided to sell. That's how it always goes.
I'm not sure what an Internet show room entails, but it seems counterintuitive to me that ABTL would be selling cars over the Internet when their main business is supplying leads to dealers. If an Internet sales show room means what I think it does, the dealers that ABTL makes its money off of might be really angry with ABTL and break off all business relationships. Sounds like a horrible idea to me.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Great news for ABTL. This should clear the air for the naysayers who said dilution was on the horizon, and the people who didn't believe that their acquisitions would be accretive, and those who said the company. NOL's will help out too.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is the most comprehensive guru report summary I could locate.
Very Positive or Strong Buy (Rating=1) 2 2 2 3 3
Positive or Buy (Rating=2) 2 2 2 1 2
Neutral or Hold (Rating=3) 6 6 5 6 4
Negative or Sell (Rating=4) 0 0 1 1 2
Very Negative or Strong Sell (Rating=5) 0 0 0 0 0
Total Independent Research Providers 10 10 10 11 11
Jaywalk Consensus (SM) 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.45 2.45
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I never followed Zacks before, and now I remember why....they're total nonsense. They downgraded ABTL three times now in about a month, and that's really crap, totally illogical, and shows they have no idea what they're doing. I like the way they waited until the stock dropped from it's high in the 18's and waited until it hit 12 before telling investors to sell. If they had any credibility, they would have told the public to sell when it was 18, not 12. I see they have another stock I follow listed as a "buy", and the company is one interest payment from Chapter 11.
My advice, "Don't follow Zacks, good or bad". They're out of their minds!
Actually, that $25 I mentioned is a very conservative figure. If history is any guide, the stock could go up to $60 without any hype. In the old days, even before ABTL did most of its own lead generation and wasn't showing cash accumulation and a profit, it was up to $12 in presplit terms. $12 of course, translates into $60 in todays terms.
I don't know who was being called a jerk, coward, and juvenile delinquent, but for me and my messages, I was being ironic. ABTL's going to be raking in the money, and this selling that we've seen only looks like a knee-jerk reaction to a "not meeting expectations". These expectations imposed by gurus are artificial and shouldn't be taken seriously. They seem to take on a life of their own, and who says that the gurus expectations have anything to do with reality.
The other side of this situation is that ABTL management is very aggressively pursuing accretive businesses and there's little doubt that the company will be one of the biggest lead suppliers in the USA. Just got to wait it out. If you take into account that the current stock price represents a reverse split of 1:5, it's easy to see that this stock could go up to $25 with little problem.
This is catastrophic, it's horrible, it's the end of the world. Will Autobytel go bankrupt as many have predicted? If so, it should be very soon. Maybe this weekend.
Quite a comprehensive analysis. It's too bad that the "experts" haven't taken the time to put out some words on ABTL other than just a 30 second analysis of the last quarters results. It kind of makes you wonder whether or not the gurus really care about what they're doing or not.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That's all this board can talk about! Did anyone ever consider that whatever they do with the new shares might be accretive to earnings? Certainly not, let's all just dump the stock and not ever think positively. Same thing applies to all the gurus who downgraded the stock because it missed their expert guesses by 2 cents. Don't you just love the stock market?
Dilution doesn't have to happen. If a company issues more shares, warrants, or whatever and uses the proceeds to acquire another company that's accretive to ABTL's earnings, ABTL could be making more money per share than it would without issuing more shares, warrants, etc.
I seems like everyone's more willing to look at the negative side of things than they are the positive side. The way Coats operates, I really don't see that he would be dumb enough to use any proceeds to buy someone elses lame company that isn't pulling in a half way decent earnings and revenue. Additionally, no one's actually said ABTL is going to do anything requiring issuance of shares. Could be warrants, preferred stock, etc. which would explain the "omnibus" part of the shelf registration.
In any case, ABTL's current price movement and downgrades looks far more like knee-jerk reactions than actual analysis of the situation. ABTL should be better off for whatever Coats is doing, not worse off as the current sellers believe. These market movements never cease to amaze me.
As you stated, companies will prepare for a possible hostile takeover by making a large number of shares available to dilute the takeover companies holdings. If the takeover company holds say, 6% of abtl and attempts to put an agent on the BOD, ABTL can turn the total outstanding issue to 2X the current number of shares and reduce the takeover agents number of shares to 3% instead of 6%. Incidentally, insider shares do not have any special status and would be diluted in value just like all the rest of the outstanding shares.
Frankly, I would be surprised if this was the reason for the omnibus filing. ABTL's put so many safeguards in place that it's almost impossible for any company to get anyone on the BOD that ABTL that doesn't want there.
Considering the total possible size and type of offering that could happen, I'm fairly convinced that ABTL is setting the stage for a possible M and A with another company. Just my guess, but considering Coats philosophy and past actions, consolidation of the industry seems likely. I just can't see what company ABTL could possibly buy out. How about a merger? Could be the reason for the "omnibus" filing that would allow preferred stock, warrants, etc.
An omnibus shelf registration (also called a universal shelf registration or universal S-3) allows for many different capital raising options for issuing stock, for example, straight stock sale, convertible debt, preferred stock convertible into common, warrants, etc.
Obviously, Yahoo did do something. It's their board, and it's their error(s). Google didn't do it, It didn't just do it on its own. Yahoo did it (amongst the many other errors and changes to their Internet format). Also, P/E does mean something. It's a major concern, and if you don't believe it, just look at the loss incurred after the last earnings were stated. If you don't want to pay any attention to P/E, that's your right, but the vast majority of investors do.
Yahoo went totally crazy on this one. P/E and EPS are way, way off. Projected EPS for the year are 24 to 28 cents. Current P/E somewhere around 75 if I recall correctly.
Yes, the target price is higher now....at least according to Yahoo. After much checking around, I still can't find anything specific about what an "omnibus" shelf filing is. Have to call ABTL on that one.
Autobytel is going to do something big. They have a net of about $9 million, and they're going to the market for additional cash. Whatever it is that they're going to do must be big and important. Coats is no fool, and he's doing this the right way. I'm in for the long term.
I'm an engineer too, but that doesn't stop me from listening to what management stated in the CC. As far as the earinings per share is concerned, the number of shares went up to over 11 million shares versus the previous 9.1 million shares. That share dilution accounted for about 1.8 cents per share. The interest payment on the convertible note accounted for the rest of the incorrectly stated "miss". What's of concern to the serious evaluators is the real earnings, not the knee-jerk reaction of the public that stumbles around never taking the time to take a real look at what's really being said...even when management states it so clearly.