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TripAdvisor Inc. Message Board

aaroncpc 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 6, 2015 4:09 PM Member since: Oct 30, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Steve Miller on CNBC

    by manny3000 Feb 6, 2015 3:28 PM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Feb 6, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Not sure how it using ABBV benefits the patient, I do see how it benefits ESRX bottom line which is what this is all about. How does CNBC not press him on the true amount of pills one has to take, the side effects and why all other major Payors including CIGNA yesterday have gone with exclusive deals with GILD?

    Oh well, just creates the opportunity to buy calls a bit cheaper so I guess I should be thankful for their misinformation.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nrx trx 1/30

    by bjrock_99 Feb 6, 2015 5:12 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Feb 6, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    In addition, those numbers are for US only scripts, not considering Europe, Japan and the rest of the world as things ramp up in 2015

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • aaroncpc aaroncpc Feb 4, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    The strategy was to buy a company as they did with Pharmasset for $11B.
    Be first to market and have a year to prove you have best of breed cure with no competition.
    Pay yourself back for purchase or at least a large percentage after blockbuster sales
    Fine tune product and launch Harvoni at a higher price
    As comp comes on with inferior product, offer discounts for exclusivity deals to protect turf
    Sales price is still close to $50k per treatment which is higher than what Pharmasset was planning at $35k
    Volumes go up, Revenues go up, Cash cow for years and have will have already recouped the initial outlay of capital to buy the drug in the first place. To me this is a no brainer

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upstream Oil exposure = 6%

    by aaroncpc Jan 22, 2015 11:14 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 22, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    In configuring their guidance, they use a 30% hit on oil exposed branches and then 15% hit on all other business within those same branches. Once they shake it all out, they are looking at a $36m +- profit reduction for the year, hypothetically, providing that they were not able to optimize their fleet.
    They feel these assumptions are ultra conservative but they did this exercise in order to look at a worse case scenario to put a better light on their potential exposure. So there is a lot of room for another beat next quarter IMO if oil doesnt have a larger negative impact.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • In Texas, main oil state, only 20% and offset by other industries which benefit from lower oil. Plus flexibility to reduce exposure of fleet to Oil quickly and repurpose towards manufacturing. Any decrease from Oil will be offset by growth in other customers. Net Net is growth...

    Lower oil prices can equal significant upside for URI overtime.

    Entering at this price = No Brainer

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 12, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    In addition, they will say what percentage of their current and future business are related to Oil production which I believe was 5% last quarter. According to pundits, production has not slowed down and will continue to grow going forward even with cap budgets being cut so perhaps the hit from that sector will have minimal impact on URI earnings. Could it be that instead of Halliburton buying equipment, they will lease in order to give them more flexibility?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I am thinking about starting a position and doing some research. I came across this note from Dec 26th. Anyone have any thoughts on how real this is? Given the share price action, you would think that the low cost of oil is already baked in and could be a good set up for a relief rally???

    Morgan Stanley said: Dow's performance plastics business (46% of EBITDA) primarily sells polyethylene (plastic resins). Polyethylene is a globally traded product whose price is determined globally by crude oil based producers (i.e., naphtha-based producers in Asia). Thus, as the price of oil goes lower, polyethylene prices face downward pressure which could hurt Dow's earnings power. Nonetheless, we estimate that ~25-30% of this segment's business is non-US (i.e. high-cost regions) which would provide an offset as their costs may work down with oil. In addition, Dow's US business buys ~ 3.3Bn lbs. of merchant ethylene, so it stands to benefit from lower ethylene prices.

  • Reply to

    anyone home???

    by jmfnyc99 Jan 5, 2015 9:54 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 5, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Bought April $30 calls for $1.65,
    Company dominates its area.

    Sentiment: Buy

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