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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

aaroncpc 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 11:33 AM Member since: Oct 30, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Upstream Oil exposure = 6%

    by aaroncpc Jan 22, 2015 11:14 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 22, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    In configuring their guidance, they use a 30% hit on oil exposed branches and then 15% hit on all other business within those same branches. Once they shake it all out, they are looking at a $36m +- profit reduction for the year, hypothetically, providing that they were not able to optimize their fleet.
    They feel these assumptions are ultra conservative but they did this exercise in order to look at a worse case scenario to put a better light on their potential exposure. So there is a lot of room for another beat next quarter IMO if oil doesnt have a larger negative impact.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • In Texas, main oil state, only 20% and offset by other industries which benefit from lower oil. Plus flexibility to reduce exposure of fleet to Oil quickly and repurpose towards manufacturing. Any decrease from Oil will be offset by growth in other customers. Net Net is growth...

    Lower oil prices can equal significant upside for URI overtime.

    Entering at this price = No Brainer

    Sentiment: Buy

  • aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 12, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    In addition, they will say what percentage of their current and future business are related to Oil production which I believe was 5% last quarter. According to pundits, production has not slowed down and will continue to grow going forward even with cap budgets being cut so perhaps the hit from that sector will have minimal impact on URI earnings. Could it be that instead of Halliburton buying equipment, they will lease in order to give them more flexibility?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I am thinking about starting a position and doing some research. I came across this note from Dec 26th. Anyone have any thoughts on how real this is? Given the share price action, you would think that the low cost of oil is already baked in and could be a good set up for a relief rally???

    Morgan Stanley said: Dow's performance plastics business (46% of EBITDA) primarily sells polyethylene (plastic resins). Polyethylene is a globally traded product whose price is determined globally by crude oil based producers (i.e., naphtha-based producers in Asia). Thus, as the price of oil goes lower, polyethylene prices face downward pressure which could hurt Dow's earnings power. Nonetheless, we estimate that ~25-30% of this segment's business is non-US (i.e. high-cost regions) which would provide an offset as their costs may work down with oil. In addition, Dow's US business buys ~ 3.3Bn lbs. of merchant ethylene, so it stands to benefit from lower ethylene prices.

  • Reply to

    anyone home???

    by jmfnyc99 Jan 5, 2015 9:54 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Jan 5, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Bought April $30 calls for $1.65,
    Company dominates its area.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • from taking 5 pills versus 1 from Gilead. What a joke. Like a new contraption that reminds patients when they have to take the many pills every day can ever compete with popping one pill with no side affects. He looked like he was lying when he was justifying the decision. This will boomerang and bite him in the #$%$

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Script numbers anyone

    by elgrego1 Nov 21, 2014 10:54 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Nov 21, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    IMS data Harvoni up 37% TRx 3,606; #HCV franchise TRx up 13% to 7,424

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone have the script count for this

    by k1ltnow Nov 21, 2014 7:23 AM
    aaroncpc aaroncpc Nov 21, 2014 7:37 AM Flag

    Harvoni scripts were 2954 + solvaldi 3274 = 6228
    12% up Harvoni NRX=2575
    These are USA numbers only, does not include Europe, Japan or Canada

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • aaroncpc aaroncpc Nov 19, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    So basically, the approval of ABBV drug will have no effect on GILDs numbers this quarter. ABBV will be ramping up in first q of 2015 while GILD is already hitting full stride and multiple approvals in multiple countries not to mention having a superior product.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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