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Zhone Technologies Inc. Message Board

abare_bull 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2014 3:39 PM Member since: Sep 8, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Another Counter Update...

    by alakamuna Mar 27, 2014 4:14 AM
    abare_bull abare_bull Mar 27, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Correct _ not just Zhone, but all access companies report to analysts, etc., the PORT CAPACITY as line shipped and not actual ports in service (line cards) - just part of the marketing game. As a delta, a MXK 819 with control cards may be riced at $40 K and have max. port capacity for marketing of 312 ports. If it was filled with GPON cards that price would be more like $250K. It is easy to understand, if you followed the counter, that if all the MXK lines were line cards, Zhone's revenues would be $1B a year. Same holds true for Calix, Tellabs, Adtran when you see reports.

    Another way to look at it is a majority of customers these vendors report have 3K-5k subscribers, and may buy 10-12 systems initially with 10% fill, and may fill to 80% over 5-10 years. So things like the counter are indicated of long term revenue potential from filling out over a period of time.

  • Reply to

    Another Counter Update...

    by alakamuna Mar 27, 2014 4:14 AM
    abare_bull abare_bull Mar 27, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    That's called the disconnect between marketing hype and accounting reality. Sure hope you don't believe TV ads as well....

  • Reply to

    Baud Telecom…13% Customer

    by alakamuna Mar 7, 2014 2:47 AM
    abare_bull abare_bull Mar 7, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    BTC, Or Bin Laden Telecom of Saudia Arabia, has been a large customer since 2007 for Ethernet Access.

  • Reply to

    Alakamuna- does this concern you?

    by stock.face Mar 7, 2014 11:31 AM
    abare_bull abare_bull Mar 7, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    They face the issue that Etiselat, like a number of middle east customers, do not pay until acceptance. That means products ship, are delivered, and until tested and accepted, revenues cannot be recognized. It prolongs the revenue recognition process...

  • Reply to

    Uncertainty in Zhone

    by stock.face Feb 7, 2014 11:53 AM
    abare_bull abare_bull Feb 10, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Who says Q1 is historically low? In TelcoWorld, most spend there budget the first half of the year and install before winter weather. Q4 is usually the lowest. Because capital budgets can/often get reduced during the year if revenues slow, the network folks like to spend it quick on a "use it or lose it" basis....I note some CEOs like to use the "this is historically a slow period" line to excuse results - and suggest a graph plotting 10-12 telecom equipment companies would be interesting to see if this is indeed true as an industry axiom.

  • Reply to

    Bottom???

    by alakamuna Jan 30, 2014 1:23 PM
    abare_bull abare_bull Jan 30, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    you have a spanking fetish? Oh, stock talk....what or where a bottom is a matter of time and circumstance. For a week, month or quarter do you refer. As a long term investment the top or bottom (being a butt and boob man) cannot be predicted - or every investor would be a billionaire1

  • Reply to

    SOLID Q4 RESULTS

    by alakamuna Jan 22, 2014 4:44 PM
    abare_bull abare_bull Jan 22, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    two comments. 1) Mory has spoken at the Needham conference every year since 2005 so it doe not equate to coverage, and 2) the added marketing expenses may be a result of paying for JITIC certification, which is about a million dollar bill, and if so a one-time event.

  • Reply to

    Rising Rev & Profit...Should Rise

    by pro_stock_picker Jan 22, 2014 5:22 PM
    abare_bull abare_bull Jan 22, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    There has actually been only small revenue growth despite the hype of FiberLan and MXK between 2012-2013. I would wait until there is a measurable increase of $3-5 M to a level of $35-40M per Q to get all excited. This would validate the value of JITIC certification as a revenue generator in my opinion. If this happens, the stock could jump to the "next level" of $8-10.

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