The long term outlook is bad at current spot prices (price is almost cost for CLD) and CLD will most likely show improvements in operating costs with top line revenue declining. The good thing is that spot seems to have hit a seasonal low.
The market is slamming the market price of the equity side of CLD due to the 2-5 year framework looking really bad for US coal companies overall using the forward strip. In my opinion CLD's equity is worth somewhere between $425 and $475m, however they will need to start selling something forward soon to secure $12/ton in 2017 and be able to maintain their margins going forward. Even though $12 is low and they probably will get something like 12,75-13,00 for 2017, it would strengthen the argument for a higher stock price in the short term, they of course have to also show lower operating costs excluding the unusual capex for the dragline they are moving.
Hold is this vague term that means nothing, it means 'hold off, dont buy' and also 'just sit back and enjoy the red if you already hold it'.
When the markets are fearful like now with bears in control, a stock with rating hold is a short, simple logic.
You cant fault them for telling the truth, I mean, it is quite obvious that more savy investors are short BTU and that by helping them realize gains and take the market cap below intrinsic value eventually they may be able to attract some of those gains into the company to extend their pay check...
Which bonds do you mean? I think I saw that they have like 2066 junior bonds that will obviously never be repaid.
Today's volume though was quite meaningful, looks like we could be nearing a bottom. But I suspect we still can go lower.
Is your valuation of CLD equity really that high? $7 seems plausible on paper but not in the current environment we are in right now. 10% down today on lower volume, about half, than what was needed to move it up 6% yesterday which suggests that holders are still selling even into the news of the supreme court yesterday.
I kind of see CLD stock pessimistically at about 350m market cap which is a little more than what it is at right now but when the market is going crazy about a greek default you need to have a bigger margin of safety. However that said, I do believe that the coal industry is nearing a bottom and that while CLD will survive much longer than others, plenty of coal miners will go belly up in the next 2-3 years, except WLT, RNO which are already dead.
CLD could trade much lower in the next 3-6 months so waiting patiently to add substantially will pay off more than complaining about the market keep letting CLD go down.
Just enjoy the summer and come back in september to buy the stock is my opinion, the market will gift you it much cheaper.
Temporary pump up yesterday, suckers buying on news...
Shorts still in control and adding to the short positions until the cows come home. BTU will go to $1 before September no doubt.
I dont know to be honest, but I tried looking up NAT bonds, if they are not traded actively you wont find accurate quotes, morning star has some info but not always anything of value, otherwise you can check with your broker. I get your idea though ;)
I have learned in the stock market that it doesnt matter which company is best, in the short term weaker companies' shareprices can significantly outperform those of there stronger peers.
BTU is just not responding, nobody is buying it, even not at these levels...
How do you qualify "and doesnt go down again" that is like taking the future to the present to make a decision, total nonsense