I dont know when, but from the action today, you can see that it is mostly day traders running it up and closing their position at the end of the day, that is what smart investors use to offload shares they buy low or shares they want to get rid of before the lows come. There are always suckers buying into short term rallies thinking they can get out at the top... Have patience, the 2s will come IMO. I would not go long anything above 2.10, even would consider shorting or buying puts when it is above 3.
You will have to explain that probabilty stuff to me before I can think about it. how do you get those odd and figures for your curve?
Sad to see these short pump and dump rallies making you believe it is about to reverse and go up as traders just make a market in a small range ready to dump when it goes below the 2,85 support in the next few days.
This stock has seen more red days than russia in the time of the the soviet union, i am however surprised that it went from roughly 0,60 to 0,95, too bad i didnt buy any, but i know PGN is a stock that always provides lower entry points so I havent missed the bottom that's for sure.
I am not short, I have been wrong for a long time on my small position, that is all :)
They mentioned in the conference call that they took out some put options to limit the downside on the export tons, I think that the domestic market is not so good since the prices on the CME PRB forwards 2016 are pretty low compared to where they were in 2014. This is why I am saying that the domestic market will not help offset the losses on the 4-6m tons at -20 per ton. They only have like 72m tons domestic at lets say $2 margin which is 144m, so the idea to buy from westmoreland the option for shipping in westshore port and committing to ship it with the rail and port is killing them, otherwise CLD would still be $10 or so.
CLD needs the dollar to go down real bad so the US wont import coal from abroad and so CLD can compete in the export market.
I just think CLD just made a terrible move when gambling on the price of newcastle going up in late 2014.
I dont see what good signing the deal for the port in washington will do if newcastle stays in the toilet. Maybe they have some kind of plan for the crow coal to produce it for nothing... I have no idea about the crow project, there isnt much available about the it if i am not blind. maybe you can fill me in