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AudioCodes Ltd. (AUDC) Message Board

abeles_s 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 5, 2015 11:54 AM Member since: Aug 5, 2014
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  • Reply to

    New Management

    by p_w_smith Jun 3, 2015 3:16 PM
    abeles_s abeles_s Jun 5, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    well said Peter!

  • Reply to

    Goldman sell

    by patsbaz May 18, 2015 3:35 PM
    abeles_s abeles_s May 18, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    I saw a brief blurb from Goldman after googling it. Some jargon about a well about to slow its production blah blah blah. I think its BS - maybe some collusion to get the PPS to drop before a sale

  • abeles_s abeles_s May 11, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    "Either the CEO is the dumbest MF on the planet or the most brilliant." Ha! Yes, I echo those sentiments entirely. Either way the lack of transparency is horribly irritating. What is missing here? Seems like the new products are absolutely crushing it yet there are never any concrete numbers explaining why this stock is a screaming buy.

  • Reply to

    Now we will see action

    by patsbaz May 8, 2015 9:27 AM
    abeles_s abeles_s May 8, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    I agree with peace - excellent post and very honorable. I was really on the fence with selling but I'm going to hold out for a sale or major uptick in Brent before cashing in. With Guidry in there I think a sale is all but booked

  • Reply to

    Takeover

    by patsbaz May 6, 2015 10:08 AM
    abeles_s abeles_s May 6, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Agree. Pacific's has a crushing debt burden. GTE's? None to speak of. Its hard to see the PPS not hitting $5 in the next 3 months.

  • GA French brought up a good question when he wrote "Could it be Shabtai's end-game is to frustrate everyone to the point where then to take private?".

    After 2 years of conference calls I think its a pretty good question to ask. I always seem to be so confounded in the aftermath of these calls. Like last year when Shabtai was really pushing the prospects of mobility and then *poof* does not mention it again on the next CC. AUDC hired tons of new engineers and then very little guidance as to what they are actually doing and when we will see the fruits of the ballooning Op-ex which tanked a few quarters. Grant from the Israeli govt? Not very much color on this. The buyback? Anyone's guess as to the motive.

    Any normal CEO would be pounding the table about the partnerships with BSFT (take a look at today's action) or MSFT which crushed earnings. Not much talk at all. I've become more and more suspicious of Shabtai as these quarters go on. It would be nice if the analysts stopped asking the same questions about financial metrics and started asking the tough ones about share performance and loyalty to shareholders. After Q3 of last year here is a question that should be asked every quarter:

    Abba Horwitz - Old School Partners
    You've announced another share repurchase program to extend it. And I'm wondering how much of that do you want to complete at these levels? And also, given the fact that the business itself is actually quite healthy, would you have any insight into as why your company is selling at such a discount to any of the competitors to effective almost 50% discount in comparison to the valuations of anybody else out there? And I'm just wondering would it not even behoove you to be more aggressive with this share repurchase program, given the valuation?

    and

    Abba Horwitz - Old School Partners
    Is there any initiative to get the company in front of fund managers and sort of wane the brokers off the stock? Certainly the volatility and the huge trading volatility of the stock is due to the brokers or retail. What is being done to make sure that fund managers see this idea and get it on their desks?

  • abeles_s abeles_s May 1, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Agreed. I'm trying not to get too carried away with GTE. I've learned some painful lessons in the past about irrational exuberance -especially when something looks too good to be true. However, its just so hard to ignore the low share price, strong balance sheet, activist investors, ect ect.

  • abeles_s abeles_s May 1, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    I apologize if I offended you in any way. It was just a guess as to what the p_w perhaps might be.

  • abeles_s abeles_s May 1, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    Patrick - I made my post without knowledge of your second post. Just to throw out my wager - I believe GTE will eventually get sold for $7.50. I have no additional knowledge other than a hunch. Best of luck to you and Killorbe.

  • abeles_s abeles_s May 1, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Hello Patrick Warner Smith. Good post - I appreciate your viewpoint and it seems like you have done a fair amount of due diligence in the past on this dynamic small cap. However, I think you are ignoring a few key points regarding West Face.

    First is the general lack of credibility of the current BOD. Yes, Dana did a fine job building the company out of nothing but the fact remains he got a little too trigger happy regarding exploration all over Latin America. How did Argentina play out? How did the market react to the Peru results in January? All the hope and excitement about the "elephant hunt" in Peru turned out to be a huge failure. Granted, GTE also was caught in the downward price of Brent but come on, that was a huge miss. Dana's departure signaled a need for some damage control.

    Take a look at the stock's performance from 201. For a company with so much "potential" that is a pretty disappointing chart to look at. Too much potential and not enough execution on that potential in my opinion. Columbia is the core competency of this company and that is exactly what West Face wants to exploit going forward.

    I agree, mgmt has done a decent job of communicating their way forward regarding cost reductions and focusing on core operations in Columbia. Too little too late. Its time for some new blood in there. I don't care too much about their ideas about debt or exploration ideas - I believe they are going to get GTE ready for a nice buyout offer as the PPS is still remarkably undervalued. If we get some more positive Brent pricing in the future then the sky is the limit.

    If I was a shareholder back when the price was $8 and Brent was $100+ I would be skeptical about West Face's intentions. Since I'm a buyer in the high $2's - I see the potential take over & sale as a huge value creator. Again, thanks for your post. Its not often we get to see intelligence discussions on these boards.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 29, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    I've only owned one other stock that went through a proxy battle and that is CLF. Casablanca got involved when the share price was getting hammered but it still took a dive after they took control of the board. It had a lot to do with the terrible pricing environment of iron ore and the state of CLF's balance sheet (high debt load, expensive dividend in place ect.)

    In my opinion GTE is a much better play given its balance sheet and undervalued shares. CLF was a big lesson for me since I exited with a pretty big loss - balance sheet strength is key.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 29, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Pats - why do you find it bogus that an activist investor wants to take over a board that has presided over a very subpar 5 years of performance? I would expect you to be excited over the prospect of a proxy battle and subsequent higher PPS. If you have done some digging you would see that GTE was ripe for an activist to take control - no debt, solid cash, brand new CEO with limited credentials....

  • abeles_s by abeles_s Apr 28, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    Sounds kinda wack, right?

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by jbc77199 Apr 27, 2015 7:59 PM
    abeles_s abeles_s Apr 27, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    My prognostication - meet on everything. Shares get taken down to $4.25 - $4.50 bc Shabtai is terrible on conference calls and has no support on wall st. Buy back kicks in the next few weeks and we are back to $5 and change. Then it's another quarter of sideways movement until we get some good news from Vocanom, govt grant, ect. I hope we get something though.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 27, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    Good post - thanks. Desperate move by the BOD in my opinion. I don't see how they get the votes to stay in power - they can point to nothing in their previous track record that would make me think otherwise. I know there are some big funds that have been very unhappy with how things have gone in the last few years. Here is a good clip from the November 2014 CC call when an analyst from Amber Capital took Dana to task:
    rves.

    Jean Blanchette - Amber Capital
    You’re the worst-performing stock of all the Colombian stocks this year. Maybe the market is signaling something that you should listen to?

    Dana Coffield - Chief Executive Officer
    I disagree with you. Our closest peers are [RX] and [Rubiales]. Rubiales has outperformed us primarily because of the take out rumors associated with, I would suggest, the government, associated with one of the big funds in Mexico. [RX] certainly had an outstanding year in growing [unintelligible] reserves in the first six months of this year.

    If you look at the three companies, the three closest peers in Colombia, you’ll see they’ve tracked each other almost exactly for the last six months, three months, one month, and one week, since oil price has dropped. It depends on the timeframe you use. If you use one year, they’ve done better. If you use six months, three months, which are probably more relevant today, we’ve tracked each other very closely.

    Jean Blanchette - Amber Capital
    That’s fair, but your stock price has been almost as low as where it was during the crisis in 2008, 2009. I mean, obviously there’s something going wrong with the formula that you’re currently going on with. I mean, seriously, is there any other plan going forward?

    Dana Coffield - Chief Executive Officer
    Well, we can’t change reality. We’re in Colombia and Peru, and oil prices are what they are. We plan to execute on our [unintelligible]. So we’re not going to reallocate capital to Eagle Ford Shale and we’re not going to change industries.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 26, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    If they get Gary Guidry in there as CEO this stock is going gangbusters. By that I mean $6 easy. Take a look at what this guy has done with other companies and you can see why I'm bullish as heck if West Face gets their way. Good chance this company gets sold somewhere much higher than the current PPS.

    I think there is a better than 50/50 chance they get all board spots and Guidry as CEO. The current BOD gave carte blanch to Dana to go out and explore all over S. America with very limited success. They have nothing to show for the shareholders that have owned this stock for years with a strong cash position and no debt. Peru not yielding squat was the nail in the coffin. They need to go and I believe they will. In my opinion this stock is at least 50% undervalued at this moment .

  • Reply to

    Killorbe8

    by giantzz2009 Apr 16, 2015 8:47 PM
    abeles_s abeles_s Apr 22, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    Killorbe - as the annointed "authority" on this forum what are your thoughts on the recent news of West Face Capital.

  • Finally some activist investor is about to take the BOD to the cleaners. I've been waiting for this day when this small cap with a strong balance sheet finally gets some market recognition. I'm looking for a sale or a major run into the $5's with the news.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 15, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    killorbe, how long have you been following GTE? Good info on your post, looks like you have done some solid due diligence.

  • abeles_s abeles_s Apr 15, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    They definitely hinted at a sale during the last CC. Makes me wonder. I'm glad that they canned the CEO because he had resided over a period of disappointing PPS performance. Columbia is still promising some nice returns in the future. Peru, well, we know what happened there. A nice overreaction though leaves us marching towards the low 4's. Either way you want to look at this, trade or long term investment, it looks very juicy right now after resistance was shattered over the last week.

AUDC
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