SZYM thriving or dying based on palm kernel oil fluctuating $200 a ton?
That doesn't pass the common sense test.
I get the feeling that it would be impossible for the company to break even on the one plant alone. Their R&D costs and SG&A are too high.
Didn't you just say they can make all the Algenist they need and make 25m a year off just a small portion of the Peoria plant? Then, what are you taking about impossible for them to break even off one plant? According to what you just said above, they'd be profitable right now if they just had Peoria.
Are you coming or going?
Algenist has actually been one of the company's few success stories, and that's because it isn't just a Solazyme derived oil.
Are you sure about that? What does SZYM net on Algenist? Not much. Where's it going ? Nowhere. Do you really think Algenist can take on Este Lauder, Lancome, Clinique etc? They are multi-billion dollar a year products. SZYM and Algenist has no chance against them. The don't have enough bank to keep up with the marketing requirements. How do you know that SZYM couldn't have just made 100m a year oil for Lancome and stayed behind the scenes?
Your 3-10 times the price of commodity oils is simply incorrect
I don't think so. Specialty oils go up to 30k MT.
Forbes article out today that says SZYM can't gross 275m in commodity oils in the near future because of precipitous price drop in commodities so it's going to make specialty oils instead.
My reaction is, and? Why wouldn't that be a good thing? Specialty oils go for 3-10 times the price of commodity oils. The article says because the demand isn't there.
So I'm supposed to believe that the entire world demand of specialty oils is so small that little drop in the bucket SZYM's specialty oil making nameplate capacity is more than the entire world needs?
And if specialty oil is so expensive, why wouldn't SZYM have been planning to put the majority of its efforts in specialty oils in the first place and only use commodity oils for say 30% of its production as a conservative play? How could a billion dollar company not understand diversification?
Why is SZYM trying to take its component products from manufacture all the way through retail? Why not just stay behind the scenes and make oil and let the make-up companies do make-up and the food companies do food and you supply them?
SZYM, do you have any idea how difficult it is to penetrate billion dollar markets from manufacturing all the way through retail? It's virtually impossible. The marketing requirement alone is way beyond your ability. It takes years and years to build goodwill. Why try to bite off so much? Why not just quietly make 10s of millions of dollars off 3 production plants for a couple of year until you've become established?
And if you can't makes 10s of millions of production plants quietly why did you blow all your money on 3 production plants? Why not just start off with one small one and see how it goes?
This whole stated problem just isn't making much sense.
Those strains don't warrant full nameplate output due to lack of demand, but it does reduce costs.
Really? Where do you get this from? SZYM has the capacity to make more than the entire world demands?
I find that virtually impossible. I would think that SZYM's full capacity contribution to the world's high end oils would be just a drop in the bucket.
What happens when shorts realize its not working
The ride will be over and they'll ask you to get off the boat at It's a Small World in Disneyland.
Really? Is that a skinny little rap star or something?
The word you're looking for is "imminent". Idiot.
Not most, all.
Key is fundamentals from the perspective of the investment funds.
so this dog isn't looking too good from the perspective of the investment funds. Too bad too because SZYM seems to have invented a money making machine. Just put some water, a cup of sugar and the right algae starter in a pot and in a week out spills $10,000 a megaton oil of your choice.
Investment funds seem to think it's a money spending machine rather than a money making machine.
I expect (hope) to see next quarter's net losses somewhere around $35 million, instead of the $50 million that quite a few people have predicted
The question is why can't they make and sell more? It really is that simple.
Maybe not capacity but why can't they have a respectable quarter in the 40-50m gross sales range.
Please provide objective and quantifiable data which supports your assertion of potential revenues of billions of dollars annually based upon sales
You want objective and quantifiable data for a first ever in the history of the world technology? I don't think so. That's an oxymoron. This is the first time this has ever been done so there is no track record to pull from.
The strange thing about this company is that it was going for $18 a share when it was just a concept. Now, they have proof of concept. It works! They can grow tailored algae in huge quantities. So what if it takes 1 year or 3 years to iron out the wrinkles to positive cash flow from producing plants, the fact remains that it works. It's incredible if you think about it. Now, it's just a matter of time.
And to address your specific demand for data of potential revenue in the billions--pick an industry. Let's say foodstuff. As if what, the foodstuff industry isn't a trillion dollar industry? As if SZYM produced the most nutritious, most high protein, non-gluten, most versatile flour in the history of the world, there wouldn't be room for it to become a billion dollar a year product?
Jonathan S. Wolfson - Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Thanks, Tyler. Our view of Solazyme's potential and our opportunity set has expanded over the course of the last couple of years, in 2014 in particular. The path we've outlined today provides greater strategic focus and alignment with the markets we operate in today and our current manufacturing capacity and capital position. These factors are short term, but by addressing them in this way, we're chartering a course to achieve much greater value over time. And in fact, we've never been more enthusiastic about Solazyme's ultimate potential. We think that's beginning to be demonstrated particularly in the production progress at Clinton/Galva, the upstream successes at Moema, the commercial momentum we are now beginning to build and the breadth and potential of our technology.
We fully recognize the significant impact of these decisions on our near-term sales growth trajectory, but we believe they will better protect and reward the investments we're making in building Solazyme for the long term. We believe strongly in the value we're building. We're as energized and focused as ever and are moving aggressively forward on our commercialization path.
"Now that we have more operating experience at Moema, we also expect that there may be a manageable amount of additional capital expenditures required to enable the downstream to support full nameplate targets, though this should not impact our commercial ramp-up plans given our near-term focus on producing fewer higher-margin products."
Peter J. Licari - Chief Technology Officer
"I'll start with Peoria. Our technology and manufacturing process continues to work well at Peoria, and the plant has been a success story for Solazyme. As previously mentioned, we have largely transitioned this facility from what was essentially an integrated biorefinery into a small commercial-scale plant that is mainly focused on making our AlgaVia powdered nutritional ingredients. The plant operations are now routinely producing in-spec AlgaVia Protein and Lipid Powder. Our experience at Peoria gives us high confidence in our ability to scale AlgaVia powdered ingredient production in our larger facilities in the future. We have reserved some capacity at Peoria and are still using the facility to produce ingredients for the Algenist brand and will continue to produce some oils for development and market-seeding purposes."
Peter J. Licari - Chief Technology Officer
"In short, I'm more confident than ever in the future for our technology and products."
Jonathan Wolfson q3 conference call.
"Over almost 12 years at Solazyme, we believe that we built a company and a technology that will produce numerous disruptive products that are better for the planet and will ultimately deliver a multi-billion-dollar profitable commercial entity. "
I think he just promised me a market cap of multiple billions, didn't he?
It'll only go to 12 if
1. They put out a 50m revenue quarter or
2. A big player, say that likes Encapso, decides to pick them up for pocket change figuring just using the products in house is worth the money.
The point of my original question was directed at my conclusion that biofuels will need to become a large percentage of a much larger production stream if SYZM is to become a behemoth with revenues on the scale of XOM, ADM and others who play in this sandbox.
Nope. Not even close to being true. No fuel necessary. The markets for food, lubricants, encapso, skin care, soaps etc. is in the trillions. More than enough for SZYM to sell everything they can make. They just have to get established.