Agreed. The market isn't going to wait until a company is at nameplate capacity and then move up. I wish, but it just doesn't work like that. If a company is representing that it's now moving into commercial production and anticipates nameplate capacity within 18 mths, the time to get in is now because in 18mths it'll be at 50 anticipating commencement of the next facility and/or partnership.
And that's the most difficult thing about investing--the wait. As I've learned, there are plenty of people here who bought at $18 in 2011 who are incredibly frustrated that SZYM is so far behind schedule.
There are no fundamentals holding up this stock. None.
The dead cat bounce from $5 to $10 was based on die hard BBRY longs prostating themselves to the new CEO and news of what other companies did and that's all. Face reality, there are no fundamentals to back up BBRY being worth $10 a share. It wasn't worth $8 a share last December and it's only gone down hill since then. BBRY market share has dropped off the map.
This thing is going to trickle down all the way up to earnings unless some big internal news comes out.
well, we don't have to worry about that because nobody sees anybody with a blackberry.
Let's take them one at a time:
1. He'll turn the company around and make it a dominant player once again. (just like Prem Watsa says, "when John Chen accomplishes his work at Blackberry, the blackberry turnaround story will be the biggest turnaround story in all of business.")
A conclusion with no facts. Implicitly you're talking about phones because you address the rest below and Chen has already admitted BBRY is dead in phones.
2. He'll monetize and spin-off BBM into a separate company, bringing in significant cash from ths spin-off.
No chance without market share and income and BBM has neither.
3. He'll penetrate and dominate the auto-industry (and embedded OS markets) with QNX.
QNX already dominates the auto industry. There's no profit in QNX, most of it is public.
4. He's already takien head-on BYOD with his COPE, in the field of MDM. This [COPE] could change the current game in enterprise MDM.
Hah? Chen hasn't developed anything. He's pushing the same products the previous CEO pushed.
5. Worst-case: John Chen will find an Asain buyer for all of Blackberry at a 50% premium ove current price. John Chen is a big name for power-broking in China (SE Asia)
Really? Someone going to buy what's left at BBRY for 7.5b? Wow, good luck with that.
All in all, the future is sweet. Even the worst-case is sweet.
So there are no valuations BBRY can coattail off today and it'll have to stand on its on news.
What you say? BBRY has no news? Never has had any positive news? No indication that BBRY is doing anything other than selling things and shutting things down and continuing to lose market share?
Well then. Get ready for the stock to go back to 7.
reporting news today that BBRY supporters can point to to try and ride some coattails? Market is up 100 and BBRY is down. Now that the crazy coattailing is over, get ready for $8 again.
"But, but WhatsApp did something really good and we're kind of like WhatsApp aren't we?"
Who did he beg at 8$ 2 months ago?
Anyone and every who might like to buy this liability. Open auction. No takers.
that's the only thing that's been holding the stock up. As soon as it stops buying, back to 7.
What matters is what these large fund holders think. And they are all over this because they see the writing on the wall now.
You get all excited threatening to dump your 1,000, 10,000, 25,000 or 50,000 shares because Moema isn't in commercial production yet as if anyone cares. These guys move 1,000,000 shares like its nothing. If they see 300m per year revenue 2 years out, they are more than happy park 1-10,000,000 shares here for 2 years waiting for the big day. So what do you think selling your 5,000 shares into their 1,000,000 share order means to them?
So get real. We are fleas on a humongous beast.
not to mention payment of taxes when they receive stock as compensation. Stock as compensation is ordinary income and lo and behold the IRS won't take some shares as payment.
free or minimal money. Not even material. That's why no press release came out. All hype.
As if BBRY would close a big time deal and not put out a press release? Remember this is the company that recently bragged an entity bought 5000 phones.
and time to short. Funny how QNX could make this run when the Ford deal brings in no material revenue.
Sooner or later the hype was bound to run out. Now reality sets in and the reality is that BBRY has no way to make a net profit.
So BBRY still has 2 clients? Wow, where's the press release?
How much profit are these two clients bringing in? 10 million? Great, 10 million done, 3 billion left to go. Kinds of sounds like Obama care spin.
wow, such a compelling argument. Ok, I'll put my life savings going long on BBRY based on your riveting interpretation of the fundamentals.
Do you really think that as a company's product is dropping off the map that they are picking up new BBM customers in droves?
The reality is that the number of active users is probably mirroring the drop in BBRY's market share.