I agree with all what you said. But I have a hard time going over the hurdle that these people are moron and absolutely stupid. (Well, I have been wrong so far). If we assume they are rational, does that mean they have something going on in the back? Maybe that is just my wishful thinking.
I think 60% chance we will be paid.
Do I read it correctly that banks are giving Terry several month to figure things out?
BTW, I think both Cmon and Crab deserve respect at this point.
If they can do it now, they should be able to close the deal 3 month ago. As a matter of fact, the current situation is much much worse and I don't think they can do a deal at $40 oil and $2.1 gas.
With only $78M liquidity and new increased interest payment of $83M each year, they will be in the same situation next year. Who would risk $500M for a 10% return? The $500M would be much better put into use as DIP. Under 11, $310 credit line will be senior note and $877M note will be common. You will end up with much more cash and liquidity and much less debt when injecting $500M then.
It only started when they failed the secured deal in Aug. There were no issue before that.
Finally it is coming.
With common at $0.4/sh, they need to issue 500 million to 1 billion shares. I don't think they have that much shares allowed to issue. Otherwise, common holder would be the biggest winner out of this fiasco.
I really wish Terry a Merry Christmas. Next month or two will be awful for him.
If I don't see the press release by the end of today for the 30-day grace period, I deem it pretty safe.
Actually that is a reasonable guestimate. My model is that they have to cut cap ex starting Oct.1 by half to get to March 16.
If I had $500M to spend, things will be a lot easier. I will spend $30M to buy up 70% of common and take over the company first (look at KBIO in the past two days). Then I will give SFY (or myself) $470M as secured. First all the board member and Terry. I will install several bond holder including you as the board member. Now everybody's interest is aligned and now you know how to spend that $470 to survive.
That would work only as of yesterday though before the poison pill.
Is it possible that institution holders decided that both SD and EXXI were going to BK this year and want to get out. There are really no decent way of getting out of hundreds of millions of bond position other than driving it to the bottom.
I can see the reasons for SD BK next month, but EXXI and BK at the same time? Especially when EXXI common is still trading at 70 cents. The behavior of their bond move are so similar, it make me to believe otherwise.