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Citigroup Inc. Message Board

abooch2000 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 9:45 PM Member since: Jul 30, 2009
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  • Forget all your other fundamentals, and remember this one: Amazon is going after these guys. Soon Etsy's sales and their projections will be fundamentally hurt. There's no doubt about that after Amazon's announcement to enter into this segment...and this fact is at best within the next two years - and maybe two months! I would not be surprised to see this rolled out in full force by Amazon before Christmas.

    And the problems ETSY has over the right here and right now term? as in three or four business days from now when they announce results? If they have even a reasonably small loss (less than $10M), anything beyond that becomes a question of how long can they sustain themselves if Amazon enters soon? ETSY doesn't have unlimited cash, and the word on the street is that management has some ropes to learn, never-mind if they are up to the challenge of Amazon. ETSY seems like a reasonable product, and they should be successful, but this business doesn't deserve the current value in it's stock price. No way. I'm wrong over the short term if they blow out this quarter with some great sales and profit , but otherwise I see a rocky road ahead for these guys no matter what once Amazon gets in the game.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • abooch2000 abooch2000 Jul 23, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Is this the Geico gekko? Because he's a funny character that no one puts much stock in except as a quirky Australian accented sell-out...no one's even seen him change colors!!!

    Non-competes. Hilarious. We'll see about that...in fact, I'm sure that they won't be locking out the likes of Amazon based on non-compete agreements.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • abooch2000 abooch2000 Jul 22, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Sustainable advantage? Are you kidding? You mean these individual craftswomen (and men) wouldn't love to open new doors to bigger markets via the greatest retailer in Amazon? Amazon wouldn't buy something it could as easily build, and they already announced their intentions of entering into the market. And why wouldn't they: Amazon loves to compete, and they like to do it on their terms. And, most importantly, this segment is right in their sweet-spot - individual craftsman who, to some extent, need the internet to make their business happen.

    This thing is going to get pummeled over the short term, and if Amazon does convince even 25% of Etsy's existing vendors to try them out, this thing is sunk. The market cap on this stock will be under $1B in under a year, or just over half of where it is now.

    The smart money knows this stock is going to get played down lower and lower over the coming months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Will cover $20

    by chidragon38 Jun 11, 2015 8:54 AM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 Jun 11, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    You're (or ur, if that helps you understand my message better) crazy.

    This current jump is nothing more than a pump it up over the short term before the inevitable fall. This thing is locked below $15 for at least a few months - and under $10 would not surprise me. With Amazon Homemade now knocking on Etsy's front door, this thing is staying down here for the here and now, and probably for the next year until this new landscape that includes Amazon is assessed. Just look at how Facebook got beat up it's first year before it finally gained traction....and FB is a business that is in a class all of it's own while Etsy clearly is not now that Amazon has joined the fold.

    All (and what I really mean is ALL) of Etsy's sales projections have to reconsidered. And no one in their right mind is going to reward them for blue sky considerations now that Amazon is going to start tearing them a new one the minute their Homemade platform is up and running.

    Additionally, I keep hearing that Amazon's charges are higher than Etsy's for their current seller platform, and therefore that is what will keep Etsy a step ahead of Amazon based on that fact. But anyone that knows anything about Amazon knows they aren't about to be undersold by anyone - in fact, quite the opposite: Amazon loves to live in the world of razor thin, if not zero margins until the day comes that they can finally take advantage of all of their (huge) market share. And every smart Etsy owner is going to at least try Amazon Homemade's platform out if only because it gives them greater exposure than just Etsy, never mind the number of eyeballs Amazon has outnumbers Etsy's many times over.

    This mini-surge higher is a head-fake at best before the inevitable fall....Mark Ronson said it best for this situation: Don't believe me just watch.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Selling climax

    by jim6b Jun 3, 2015 11:24 AM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 Jun 3, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    An end, yes. But when? I don't think the selling ends until sometime after the lockup, which means selling continues through October and lasts until November or even December.

    And what if Amazon Handmade is up and running before then? (which would make sense for them to try and get this launched before the X-Mas rush). I don't see the selling stopping until after the new years...this thing is going to get beat up worse than Rodney King - or if you don't like the cultural reference, like Facebook did in it's first year. But Etsy is no Facebook and when the selling does cease, the subsequent buying won't be anything like Facebook because Etsy is sure to garner many more competitors over time while Facebook still is in a class of its own.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Volume way down

    by mtrushless May 28, 2015 3:48 PM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 May 29, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    I completely agree with all of your comments with the one exception being that Etsy is probably being bought by women. I cannot believe that women went out and bought the stock simply because it is Etsy - a few or more, maybe. But the owners of this stock are employees of Etsy (which are probably predominantly women); and the rest, which is the majority, are mostly stock traders.

    And the traders are savvy, if not blood thirsty sharks, preying on a stock like this that has no place IPO'ing at this point in their life. I don't suspect this thing will hold at this level much longer.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • abooch2000 by abooch2000 May 28, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    You have to be sharding your pants if you are an owner of Etsy stock now that Amazon is on the scene. If those last quarters' results sent a chill down your neck, wait until Amazon gets going - Etsy’s projected sales increases are now projected sales decreases in under a year. Amazon simply existing within this space puts a major ding on the handmade, artisan market Etsy seemed to have artfully carved out for seemingly themselves until now. It reminds me of the saying by Loyd Christmas in the original Dumb and Dumber when he gets swindled by a sweet old lady on a cart: "I didn't even see it coming!"

    Competition is a good thing, but make no mistake that Amazon has this game down pat and will be a worthy if not fierce competitor in this space. Amazon will undoubtedly carve out part of this market and much of its results will be at the expense of Etsy. Even these reports of Etsy partnering with EBay…how does that stave off what Amazon is getting ready to do them? From a stock play, after seeing how swiftly this stock moved down after, let's call them reasonable results - if you add this Amazon twist of fate to the lock up period ending in October, this thing will easily go under $15 in a few weeks or less....and under $10 in a few months.

    This is my call: run for your lives!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • abooch2000 abooch2000 May 19, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Marked by a guy who's brother is named Mark.

    You're welcome richiedouglas.

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