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Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

abooch2000 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 23, 2016 5:53 PM Member since: Jul 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Seems sketchy to me

    by dstensland Mar 11, 2016 3:49 PM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 Mar 23, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    I get how JCOM is the overall company and they have many other little companies inside of that shell. My point is that no one hardly seems proud enough to tout their services on LinkedIn (for example) like almost every other breathing person who has a job that has reached the professional level like upper management at JCOM has reached. Again, it's not in any way an economic indicator of the company but it is leads to more questions as to why that might be. Again, this is a billion plus $$ company and that means the people at the top need to essentially act like other people who work at the top of billion dollar companies. And if they aren't acting like one would expect from the top executives a billion dollar plus media technology company, that raises the question as to why.

    If they had 5000 companies inside of JCOM, wouldn't or shouldn't someone be actively promoting them through social media? And, no, they can't speak for all of them, but you would think upper management would find ways to communicate about all these companies inside JCOM through Facebook, through LinkedIn, etc? Why wouldn't they do that unless it's a 3rd rate company? They sued their way to the place they are, they have questionable billing practices and poor customer service and the company won't disclose exactly how they are going to keep the money spigot flowing. If that doesn't sound like a scary situation to an investor, I don't know what would. Now, yes, they make money. Answer me that question about if or how they make money in 2018 and beyond, and it is then I can decide if I should continue to short this company.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Seems sketchy to me

    by dstensland Mar 11, 2016 3:49 PM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 Mar 23, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    One other comment yours kind of makes one believe you are in the 'in' with this company and pumping their praises vs seeing reality: "with a golden name like efax"

    ...that is a weak, weak argument. Anyone and I mean anyone that comes in and offers anything better (like better customer service or not shaking down their customers) and customers will jump ship in a second for better horizons regardless of the company's name. The name is only as good as the company behind it, and I can't find any significant examples of a quality company behind this great name. JCOM is going to get taken to the back wood shop for some chopping if these are the arguments they have as to why Citron is wrong and that they are a viable and profitable company into the future.

  • Reply to

    Seems sketchy to me

    by dstensland Mar 11, 2016 3:49 PM
    abooch2000 abooch2000 Mar 23, 2016 3:27 PM Flag

    From your comment above:

    "they are the 8000 lb gorilla and have a 20 year lead on any newcomers. what big company is going to want to invest millions in marketing to take a slice of the fax pie from the entrenched market leader with the golden name efax, with fax having an uncertain longevity?"

    Let's see, there are virtually no barriers to entry once the patents expire, and the technology to get into this business is quite inexpensive, so the question is more likely, who ISN'T going to try to horn in on this business once it becomes free to compete? As you said yourself, the numbers easily show $300mm from big fax customers that JCOM has right now. It's not like no one is going to try to compete, and I think it's more likely that even more cockroaches that are even cockroachier than JCOM will gladly try to take some of that pie away. By all indications, JCOM's individual end-users aren't happy with them, and I can't imagination their style changes with the flip of a switch with their bigger customers.

    Since people do bet on the future (and that's why TESLA) is so richly priced now, the future beyond 1.5 years looks and sounds bleak right now. JCOM has plenty of explaining to do about specifically where their income comes from and why that's going to continue beyond the patent expirations.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • abooch2000 abooch2000 Mar 22, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    MM have to reprice all the options so they don't get burned so bad again.

    Going down within the next 30 days is my call, and no more than next quarter's results. The cats out of the bag by that point, and they better have some GREAT news to announce or STELLAR counterpoints to Citron's report, or otherwise this gets punished more.

    I see way more chances for down than up at this point for the share price. JCOM has been too richly valued - a darling that really isn't, and this fall is going to hurt once it truly takes hold.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • abooch2000 abooch2000 Mar 11, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    At the very least address the easy one: the part about their ending patents. Truly a game changer or not? They need to alleviate investors of those fears.

  • abooch2000 by abooch2000 Mar 10, 2016 8:50 PM Flag

    The analysis by Citron is sound, and that's why people are selling so fervently. And I don't believe the selling is going to slow too much because it sure looks like Citron uncovered a gem here: Nobody has been paying attention to JCOM's true growth strategy, nor their impending patent expirations. A sue happy company that acquires it's way to growth, over-pays it's leadership and overnight becomes an organization that 'must' acquire other companies to assure glide path is going to get hammered over the short and long term for these guys. And the valuations are obviously too high if anyone truly breaks down JCOM's separate business like Citron just did....Citron's valuation estimates were even conservative in JCOM's favor, and they are STILL overpriced by a long, long ways. His short term and 1 year term prices are going to prove reasonable unless these guys can pull some big rabbits out of their hats...and FAST.

    The best part about this is that Citron is probably right on, because one way or another it's going to play out before us in the next 13 months as those patent protections do expire for JCOM. So the proof will be before us if Citron has nailed their thesis. But truly, unless JCOM can quite quickly come up with some concise answers to all of Citron's analysis, that's a tell in and of itself that this thing is going down just as Citron predicts.

    And to think Citron hasn't even yet touched the financial questions and 'shenanigans' JCOM is doing.

    This is going below $50 tomorrow and below $40 the following week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell


    The article points out about Gypsy Circle what I've been saying in regards to why Facebook will easily erode Yelp's market share: people would always rather listen to a trusted source for a particular review like a friend on Facebook vs. the review of an anonymous person on Yelp. On a macro level, it really is that simple. This will greatly reduce ad dollars over time as these other competitors come online. This one single aspect alone spells trouble for Yelp, among many others that are now stacking up: lagging sales growth inexplicably blamed on lack of being able to hire enough sales reps (uh, they aren't selling spaceship rockets, they are selling ad space), they could find no buyers this last summer (which makes complete sense: who wants to compete against the likes of Facebook, Google, and now sites like Gypsy Circle), possible employee / morale issues, and they are fully invested in a concept that is very 2011 if you think about it.

    Yelp's prime customer (ad dollars) is going to be taking big hits when this competition starts hitting their own stride, and the formula for their success depends on businesses getting bad-mouthed. This bad-mouthing leaves a bad taste in any business's mouth, so undoubtedly most business owners do not like Yelp. And the people that are commenting and giving reviews are usually professional ranters that are trying to act like they are a typical customer, which they usually aren't. As I said, it's a very easy bridge to cross to assume people will easily ditch Yelp if they want a review they can put some stock into and get the review from their friends on Facebook (or their friend's friends), or they'll start getting reviews from these niche sites like Gypsy Circle. And I cannot even yet envision how Google is going to impact Yelp as they too are jumping into the 'review' business, but it certainly won't be for the better

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • How do you ever value YELP more richly than it is right now? People depend on Facebook in their life. This will ultimately lead to less and less reliance on Yelp, and more and more on Facebook in the 'review' business. To trust your Facebook friend's and their friend's opinions over that of mostly anonymous professional ranters disguised as typical customers on Yelp is no hard leap to make for the common layperson, and nor is it for the investor. And the fact that Google is also nosing it's way into this market is another sign that the canary is more than sick.

    Yelp cannot sustain itself on 20-50% less of their ad dollar revenue that will surely begin to occur with the likes of Facebook and Google entering the space. Eroding market share from a company yet to build solid profits spells trouble. Yelp is overpriced and the market will start to correct the price to a more appropriate level from here.

    Price target for 2016: $12

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

10.61-0.08(-0.75%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT