now an average estimate of 50 cents for Q2, with one estimate at 60 cents. Frankly, my prior comment of 50 cents is probably light. Buying at the current share levels should provide very good fortunes by this time next year. We should be over $20, providing a minimum IRR of over 20%.
UIHC is going to sail upwards - I'm expecting at least $2/share in 2016 - they're reinsuring their risk, growing and management sounds conservative. Acquisition closing tomorrow. Buy more shares if they're available at the $15 price (where it is at) and hold for at least a couple of years.
UIHC's earnings will be positive, probably in the 10-18 cent range. The company has $20M of reinsurance protection coming, so this catastrophe loss is merely an acceleration - if the company has more catastrophes that significant exceed another $20M, then there will be some declinations in yearly earning estimates. I'm thinking that UIHC will exceed $1.80/share in 2016, and possibly $2/share. Hope that this helps.
Pinky doesn't understand - UIHC will not be in a loss in Q1. He lacks perspective and the ability to assess financial statements.
If there business would never recover, i would not given them a P/E in the 12-15 range. It would be lower, but 9-10 due to their dividend paying ability and financial strength.
richoncat - I agree with you on CAT's financial situation (A+). The problem is that 4th quarter sales plummeted 23%, and this year, we can expect a 10% or more decline. Earnings (prior to restructuring charges) may come in around $3.75 or so. I think that the recovery will take longer than most expect. Having said that, I don't see that $75 is a fair price - forward P/E of 20 is much too risk for a cyclical stock. The dividend yield is healthy. I'd say that a fairer P/E is around 12-15, so IMO the shares are overvalued by at least $15 (dividend is what will keep the shares over $60).
There's a flood of avail CAT used equipment, and prices have been dropping. With such availability and at lower prices, this is a major reason for the sluggishness in their business. You looking to "collateral" is a very shallow analysis as you're not digging in and doing some real homework.