Short Interest for Feb 28 is released. It is 8,420,000. Up a little from the end of January, but in line with the number of short shares listed for October, November, and December.
Short sellers are not driving the high share volume in ELNK for the past 3 months.
Yes, the data you display makes my point. The Tutes are doing the trading of 1-2 million ELNK trades per day. Retail shareholders hold too small a pool of shares to sustain the volume.
The Tutes are probably the holders of the small number of shares sold short. They use them as part of a hedging strategy. To play their game you need to invest in them instead of being a direct investor in ELNK. It is your choice.
I agree that the change in short interest over the past few months is minor. I think that this data indicates that the Shorts are not the main controlling factor.
I posted earlier that there are 8 institutions with large holdings in ELNK. It seems that they are trading between themselves. The share price may have more to do with tax loss selling than anything else.
I appreciate your concern for my portfolio. However, the existence of competition is not a reason to hide my money under a rock. ELNK has 90 fiber rings and they own the connections between their Data Centers. RAX is a competitor, but does not have the hard assets to support their VM services.
The ELNK power point shows that CIOs rate ELNK higher than RAX.
A combination of RAX and ELNK makes a lot of sense for both companies. RAX is strong internationally, ELNK is strong in the USA.
The ELNK fiber is already connected with a bunch of the S towers. S closed down the Nextel service at the end of last year. S paid ELNK per the Q4 report. #$%$ upgrades those same towers to Sprint Spark and their LTE build out, ELNK is in the correct position to win those contracts.
Sorry McRed, fear is not an investment strategy.
The updated roadshow slides compare ELNK with its competitors. Most are Cable companies that do not have the same national footprint as ELNK. The Comcast/TimeWarner merger indicates that there may be further consolidation. IMHO ELNK brings hard assets to the table that can attract a bid.
ELNK also has a history of working with Sprint. The new owner of S wants to expand data centers in Japan, China, and maybe the USA.
I would not buy a stock on merger rumor alone. However, the new presentation indicates that ELNK is not as bad off as the current stock price implies.
Short sellers only represent 8% of the float. I do not think they are a controlling factor. RAX is dealing with a 19% short interest and they have very little debt to stir the threat of bankruptcy. ELNK has USA fiber routes which are a hard asset; RAX pays rent for everything. It is a Tortoise (ELNK) vs Hare (RAX) thing.
Future Revenue is the challenge; McRed and I agree on that point. The old CLEC income will carry ELNK for a few more years until the Cloud business grows. This is a long term investment with a dividend that pays you to wait.
I was hoping for news about the ELNK connection to the Mobile Cloud via Sprint Spark. It looks like I need to wait a bit longer. No worries.
ELNK spent lots of money during the past couple of years to build out their network and establish the Data Centers. Therefore, in 2014, Depreciation remains high in the $190M range and will decrease in future years. This a paper write off. Cash Flow will be high enough in 2014 to easily cover the dividend and potential share repurchases during the next several months. No worries.
The per share Net Loss for 2013, $5.25/share, seems high until you read that it is mostly a paper write off also. The Adjusted Net Loss of $.13/share for Q4 is smaller than the $.19/share Adjusted Net Loss that the company projected on the Q3 report. Most analysts estimated a Net Loss of $.19; the better than expected results should improve the share price tomorrow AM.
The company does need to express a plan to grow Revenue. Hopefully the new CEO will address this issue in the conference call. McRed will tell us that the sky is falling. IMHO the low debt ratio and cash held puts ELNK in a stronger position than most of their competitors. RAX has lower debt, but they need to spend capital to build out more Data Centers, if they want to grow. The cash to do that needs to come from somewhere. ELNK has completed their build out. Make your own decision regarding who may be in the better position going forward.
Tutes own a large percentage of ELNK, 78% per the NASDAQ website. Seven of the eight largest holders reported this week. I pulled the Feb 15, 2013 share holdings from the 2013 Annual Meeting Proxy statement to compare with the Dec 30, 2013 recently reported Tute share count. The results are in date order and in Millions of shares:
Dimensional 7.795 7.757 small increase
Vangard 5.710 5.864 small increase
Sterling 6.968 UNREPORTED YET - indication from Sept 30 is large decrease of 2.0M shares
Renaissance 6.812 4.650 a decrease of 2.162M shares
Artisan 7.201 8.479 increase of 1.278M shares
Blackrock 5.868 7.014 increase of 1.146M shares
*new WHV as of Dec 30 4.214 decrease of 4.8M shares from Sept 30, 2013
*new Trioaks as of Dec 30 5.886 increase of .652M from Sept 30, 2013
Note: WHV and Trioaks held fewer than 5M shares in February 2013 and were not in the list of 5% holders of ELNK stock. That is why they are listed as new. WHV owned over 8M shares on Sept 30, 2013, but then sold almost half during Q4. Therefore, they did a short term increase followed by a short term decrease during the 9 month period covered by this data.
There is nothing in this data that supports McRed's panic; only 3 of the 8 are selling. The high volume of ELNK shares traded daily seems to be the Tutes trading with each other.
Retail investors will know more after the bell on Wednesday February 19. IMHO it is better to invest based on facts, rather than emotion.
Good Morning McRed. By your logic, since AAPL cell phones are expensive, then AAPL is going out of business too. Panic is not a trading or investment strategy.
I will wait for the facts to be revealed on Feb 20. FY 2014 should bring:
- lower capital outlays than 2013
- lower interest payments since debt was restructured in October
- better tax leverage since the holding company has been formed
- an increase in ELNK number of employees as they are growing in targeted areas that also happen to be the same metro areas that Sprint Spark has been initiated. ELNK has 115 job openings at the moment.
I am sorry to report that you have misinterpreted the SEC filing. The new ELNK president was granted options and RSU stock by the ELNK Board of Directors on January 17. The shares will come out of our pockets when they vest.
It would be nice to see the BOD step up and buy more shares. Very few ELNK shares are held by retail investors, like me. The bulk are held by institutions, like Blackrock. The high daily volume of shares that we see are the tutes swapping shares among themselves for whatever hedge they are working. The price is meaningless until ELNK reports on February 20 and provides guidance for 2014.
They have already indicated that they are done building out new fiber routes and data centers, So, capital costs should decrease going forward. I do have to agree with McRed that Gross Revenue and, eventually, EPS are the important factors for long investors.
McRed has been correct for the past 6 months. It is yet to be determined what the next 6 months will bring. I believe that ELNK is plugged into the growing Mobile Cloud via its relationship with Sprint Spark. It is the reason Eagle River is interested in ELNK. IMHO
I am long. It is not a loss, if you do not sell.
Eagle River is interested in ELNK; therefore, I am interested.
Actually, the selection of the new Director to the BOD confirms my prediction. I do not know when a formal announcement will be made. It may be after Sprint reports its quarterly results next week.
The new Director that ELNK added to the BOD has Clearwire and Eagle River credentials. This further validates that ELNK is moving successfully to the mobile cloud. Eagle River made a huge amount of cash from the sale of their Clearwire assets to Sprint just a few months ago.
ELNK has a relationship with Sprint. All that is missing is the announcement of expanded service to super fast TD-LTE. TBD
It is my educated guess that ELNK will be offering the new iPads to be announced on Oct 22. They will be designed for Business users. ELNK will use the Sprint/Clearwire TD-LTE network for over-the-top connection that will also be twice as fast as DSL or a Cable connection.
McRed's post is in the dust. My prediction will be shown true or false by this time next week.
The quote can be found on the ExtremeTech website. Yahoo does not allow links to be posted. A simple search should find it.
There was an article released that indicated that the new 5s and 5c iPhones do not make use of the Clearwire 2.5 spectrum. That seemed odd to me. I found the following recent article that may provide some insight into how S can use the Clearwire spectrum in crowded urban areas while the expansion of 2.5 is rolled out to the other 34,000 S towers. The article also has a list of cities where 2.5 is available.
Band 34 is a TD-LTE option on the new iphones.
"Sprint also has another unusual benefit to its LTE TDD network deployment. In areas where Sprint’s LTE TDD network has usable channels in the middle of the 2.5GHz band, it can also use a little-known feature called “multiple frequency band indicator” to allow LTE TDD devices that use LTE band 38 (an alternate subset 2.5GHz TDD band class designed to permit both LTE FDD and LTE TDD operations on 2.5GHz) onto its network. LTE band 38 is used in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and soon Canada. The device ecosystem is expected to be quite large"
I have an educated guess that Appl will soon announce a 'dumb' iPad that will use the cloud for processing and the device for receiving and displaying the results only. It should be much lighter, longer battery life, and very cheap. Put a finger print scanner and a wireless keyboard on it and it becomes a replacement for a business desktop. If the device is lost, there is no data stored on it -- a plus for security. It can also be tethered to the iPhone or home or business WyFy to reduce the need for duplicate contracts with mobile service provides.
To be determined.
The 4% rally today is related to Softbank (the Japanese company that bought Sprint/Clearwire). Softbank is building Data Centers in Japan to work with their LTE-Advanced network.
They are going to want something similar in the USA with their Sprint/Clearwire LTE-Advanced network that is still being built. ELNK already has an agreement with Sprint/Clearwire to carry their upgraded device on their upgraded network.
The specific news item today is that Softbank will soon have new money related to the sale of its stake in a Chinese internet company. With new money, they get to compliment their cellular network services with IT services for business which will lead to more users on its network which uses their upgraded LTE-Advanced resources which brings in money for everyone.
Actually, the way to play the China Mobile/iPhone5C situation is to buy Earthlink. Their Data Centers will be needed by Chinese businesses who do not trust data storage in China.
See the last ELNK presentation at Oppenheimer Conference. Slide 9 shows the advantage ELNK has by having both Data Centers plus their own fiber network.
We have a broad network footprint that provides coverage across over 90% of the country. We have expanded our data center presence and added new network routes:
•Allows for lower latency, customer bridging and a more fault-tolerant enterprise class product
•Network and data center combination creates an end-to-end cloud solution
This is Quality over Quantity. A business can arrange for direct connection to the ELNK fiber for a level of security that is beyond Brand X cloud services.