McRed has been correct about ELNK for over the past 8 months. However, the ELNK free cash flow indicates that a death watch is not warranted.
The BOA estimate was based on a buyout price, not a 12-month projection. I did not read the report in detail, but it probably includes the ELNK debt of $607 million.
The Short Interest report was posted today on the NASDAQ website. It is up to 9.315 million ELNK shares as of June 15 from 8 million in May. The share price rose after the report was released.
The Russell 2000 report comes out on Monday. ELNK will be listed futher down the list this year than last year, but the Market Cap still qualifies it for the list. That is unless McRed shorts a whole bunch more shares over the next 3 trading days.
The ELNK options market does not reveal much enthusiasim either way. This is just a small stock waiting to post their next quarterly report. They will pay a hunk in interest, but will also pay down some of their debt. The decrease in debt is a benefit to current shareholders. As is the dividend. As is the repurchase of shares (to be discontinued per the Q1 Report). No worries.
There may be other buyers out there. The top 15 Institutions own more than 60% of ELNK. All the BOD needs is thier approval to get a super majority vote to sell the company. To me, that means that ELNK has negotiating power.
RAX needs more Data Centers and they need the fiber connection between them in order to compete. RAX has international clients, while ELNK has USA clients. The synergies make a lot of sense. RAX announced publically that they are reviewing deals.
Most of large Tutes reported their ELNK holdings last night; Artisan is at the top of the list with 8,157 shares. The Tutes moved their control of ELNK from 72% as of December 2013 to 85% by the end of March 2014. That leaves very few shares for retail investors to trade.
Of the large holders of ELNK from the December 2014 data, 3 funds have not reported yet - Sterling (4.1 m), Millenium, (3.2 m) and Trioaks (2.9 m). Six other large holders increased their ELNK holdings. Three decreased their shares by a small amount. Finally, Three decreased their holdings by a significant amount. They are:
WHV decreased by 2.565 m shares, now holding 1.650 m shares
Blair decreased by 1.9 m shares, now holding 0 shares
Wells Fargo decreased by 1.740 m shares, now holding .354 m shares
The daily volume of ELNK shares being traded is mostly the Tutes trading among themselves. They will let the share price rise when they are done with tax loss trading and hedging. The Short Interest has remained stable at about 8.2 m shares for a couple of quarters; therefore, short sellers are not a big factor in this stock. IMHO
ARTISAN PARTNERS LIMITED PARTNERSHIP sold over 8 million shares of ELNK during Q4 of 2013 to bring their holding to zero on December 31. However, Yahoo Major Holders lists Artisan now holding over 5 million shares at the end of Q1 2014.
Retail investors got played by this Institution. More Tutes need to report, but the pattern seems to be that the top 10 holders of ELNK will hold more than a majority of ELNK shares. That makes a buyout of ELNK easier to arrange. IMHO
Cash Flow is fine. Ended 2013 with $116M and ended Q1 with $109M. Of that, $5M was returned to shareholders as a dividend plus a couple million dollars was used to pay down debt.
McRed confuses paper losses with susstainability. I do not.
I have been watching the behavior of the Institutional holders of ELNK. So far, they do not share McRed's fear. More need to report over the next week.
Blackrock (a 7% holder of ELNK) added to its position during the first quarter. BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS UK HOLDINGS LTD is new with 480,000 shares. These are in addition to the other funds that I have reported in this thread who have added shares.
The funds that are reporting the sale of ELNK shares are small in number and small in the number of decreased shares, so far.
There are more funds to report during the next few days. The Tutes seem to have increased their share count to 80%. That leaves few retail investors and few shares for retail investors to buy.
Another Institution added a significant stake in ELNK during the first quarter. See the NASDAQ website under NEW holdings:
APG ASSET MANAGEMENT N.V.
The short interest reported for March 15 is 8.4 million shares. Not much of change for the past 6 months.
The prediction of a cut in the dividend has also proven to be wrong, per the recent announcement by ELNK. The BOD were solidly voted FOR during the Annual Meeting. All we need now is a quarterly report on Tuesday.
ROI is not based on weeks or months. ELNK is a long term investment.
Also, the Data Centers are built. They only need to add to them as demand increases. AWS, MSFT, GOOG are cutting prices to compete with each other. However, they do not have 90 fiber rings like ELNK. They are either gonna need to spend more big bucks to build out their network, or buy an existing one. No worries.
I appreciate your passion McRed. I just do not agree with your conclusions. That is what makes a market.
Cash Flow is the catalyst factor for ELNK. They are putting $140 million in Capital Expenditures back into their business in 2014.
Shareholders are being paid 4% in dividends to hold their shares as the turn around proceeds. McRed is not doing that well hiding in bonds.
Sorry McRed, the big Tutes are beginning to report changes in their positions as of March 31. The holder of 1.8 million shares of ELNK, BERSON & CORRADO INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC, announced they increased their share count by 4.65% during the first quarter of 2014.
At least one Fund does not support McRed's Chicken Little act. More will be reporting during the next couple of weeks. I do need to give McRed the credit for being right about the direction of the ELNK share price during the past 6 months. However, his predictions of doom and gloom are overstated IMHO. Berson agrees with me.
The Short Interest for March 31 was released yesterday. It remains at 8.2 million shares. The shorts are not driving the decline in ELNK.
The holdings of the Tutes will be released over the next few weeks for the end of Q1. This information will be more helpful to retail investors. It will reveal what the large holders are doing. My guess is that they are holding on and taking the quarterly dividend until ELNK improves its revenue. Only McRed knows when that will happen.
Short Interest for Feb 28 is released. It is 8,420,000. Up a little from the end of January, but in line with the number of short shares listed for October, November, and December.
Short sellers are not driving the high share volume in ELNK for the past 3 months.
Yes, the data you display makes my point. The Tutes are doing the trading of 1-2 million ELNK trades per day. Retail shareholders hold too small a pool of shares to sustain the volume.
The Tutes are probably the holders of the small number of shares sold short. They use them as part of a hedging strategy. To play their game you need to invest in them instead of being a direct investor in ELNK. It is your choice.
I agree that the change in short interest over the past few months is minor. I think that this data indicates that the Shorts are not the main controlling factor.
I posted earlier that there are 8 institutions with large holdings in ELNK. It seems that they are trading between themselves. The share price may have more to do with tax loss selling than anything else.
I appreciate your concern for my portfolio. However, the existence of competition is not a reason to hide my money under a rock. ELNK has 90 fiber rings and they own the connections between their Data Centers. RAX is a competitor, but does not have the hard assets to support their VM services.
The ELNK power point shows that CIOs rate ELNK higher than RAX.
A combination of RAX and ELNK makes a lot of sense for both companies. RAX is strong internationally, ELNK is strong in the USA.
The ELNK fiber is already connected with a bunch of the S towers. S closed down the Nextel service at the end of last year. S paid ELNK per the Q4 report. #$%$ upgrades those same towers to Sprint Spark and their LTE build out, ELNK is in the correct position to win those contracts.
Sorry McRed, fear is not an investment strategy.
The updated roadshow slides compare ELNK with its competitors. Most are Cable companies that do not have the same national footprint as ELNK. The Comcast/TimeWarner merger indicates that there may be further consolidation. IMHO ELNK brings hard assets to the table that can attract a bid.
ELNK also has a history of working with Sprint. The new owner of S wants to expand data centers in Japan, China, and maybe the USA.
I would not buy a stock on merger rumor alone. However, the new presentation indicates that ELNK is not as bad off as the current stock price implies.
Short sellers only represent 8% of the float. I do not think they are a controlling factor. RAX is dealing with a 19% short interest and they have very little debt to stir the threat of bankruptcy. ELNK has USA fiber routes which are a hard asset; RAX pays rent for everything. It is a Tortoise (ELNK) vs Hare (RAX) thing.
Future Revenue is the challenge; McRed and I agree on that point. The old CLEC income will carry ELNK for a few more years until the Cloud business grows. This is a long term investment with a dividend that pays you to wait.
I was hoping for news about the ELNK connection to the Mobile Cloud via Sprint Spark. It looks like I need to wait a bit longer. No worries.
ELNK spent lots of money during the past couple of years to build out their network and establish the Data Centers. Therefore, in 2014, Depreciation remains high in the $190M range and will decrease in future years. This a paper write off. Cash Flow will be high enough in 2014 to easily cover the dividend and potential share repurchases during the next several months. No worries.
The per share Net Loss for 2013, $5.25/share, seems high until you read that it is mostly a paper write off also. The Adjusted Net Loss of $.13/share for Q4 is smaller than the $.19/share Adjusted Net Loss that the company projected on the Q3 report. Most analysts estimated a Net Loss of $.19; the better than expected results should improve the share price tomorrow AM.
The company does need to express a plan to grow Revenue. Hopefully the new CEO will address this issue in the conference call. McRed will tell us that the sky is falling. IMHO the low debt ratio and cash held puts ELNK in a stronger position than most of their competitors. RAX has lower debt, but they need to spend capital to build out more Data Centers, if they want to grow. The cash to do that needs to come from somewhere. ELNK has completed their build out. Make your own decision regarding who may be in the better position going forward.
Tutes own a large percentage of ELNK, 78% per the NASDAQ website. Seven of the eight largest holders reported this week. I pulled the Feb 15, 2013 share holdings from the 2013 Annual Meeting Proxy statement to compare with the Dec 30, 2013 recently reported Tute share count. The results are in date order and in Millions of shares:
Dimensional 7.795 7.757 small increase
Vangard 5.710 5.864 small increase
Sterling 6.968 UNREPORTED YET - indication from Sept 30 is large decrease of 2.0M shares
Renaissance 6.812 4.650 a decrease of 2.162M shares
Artisan 7.201 8.479 increase of 1.278M shares
Blackrock 5.868 7.014 increase of 1.146M shares
*new WHV as of Dec 30 4.214 decrease of 4.8M shares from Sept 30, 2013
*new Trioaks as of Dec 30 5.886 increase of .652M from Sept 30, 2013
Note: WHV and Trioaks held fewer than 5M shares in February 2013 and were not in the list of 5% holders of ELNK stock. That is why they are listed as new. WHV owned over 8M shares on Sept 30, 2013, but then sold almost half during Q4. Therefore, they did a short term increase followed by a short term decrease during the 9 month period covered by this data.
There is nothing in this data that supports McRed's panic; only 3 of the 8 are selling. The high volume of ELNK shares traded daily seems to be the Tutes trading with each other.
Retail investors will know more after the bell on Wednesday February 19. IMHO it is better to invest based on facts, rather than emotion.