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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

accugrowth 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 6:25 PM Member since: Oct 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    ELNK will be a penny stock by march 2015

    by mccormickred Apr 14, 2014 3:17 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Apr 15, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    ROI is not based on weeks or months. ELNK is a long term investment.

    Also, the Data Centers are built. They only need to add to them as demand increases. AWS, MSFT, GOOG are cutting prices to compete with each other. However, they do not have 90 fiber rings like ELNK. They are either gonna need to spend more big bucks to build out their network, or buy an existing one. No worries.

    I appreciate your passion McRed. I just do not agree with your conclusions. That is what makes a market.

  • Reply to

    ELNK will be a penny stock by march 2015

    by mccormickred Apr 14, 2014 3:17 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Apr 15, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Cash Flow is the catalyst factor for ELNK. They are putting $140 million in Capital Expenditures back into their business in 2014.

    Shareholders are being paid 4% in dividends to hold their shares as the turn around proceeds. McRed is not doing that well hiding in bonds.

  • Reply to

    ELNK will be a penny stock by march 2015

    by mccormickred Apr 14, 2014 3:17 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Apr 14, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    Sorry McRed, the big Tutes are beginning to report changes in their positions as of March 31. The holder of 1.8 million shares of ELNK, BERSON & CORRADO INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC, announced they increased their share count by 4.65% during the first quarter of 2014.

    At least one Fund does not support McRed's Chicken Little act. More will be reporting during the next couple of weeks. I do need to give McRed the credit for being right about the direction of the ELNK share price during the past 6 months. However, his predictions of doom and gloom are overstated IMHO. Berson agrees with me.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Last Month....fwiw

    by mark7182002 Feb 27, 2014 7:48 AM
    accugrowth accugrowth Apr 11, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    The Short Interest for March 31 was released yesterday. It remains at 8.2 million shares. The shorts are not driving the decline in ELNK.

    The holdings of the Tutes will be released over the next few weeks for the end of Q1. This information will be more helpful to retail investors. It will reveal what the large holders are doing. My guess is that they are holding on and taking the quarterly dividend until ELNK improves its revenue. Only McRed knows when that will happen.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Last Month....fwiw

    by mark7182002 Feb 27, 2014 7:48 AM
    accugrowth accugrowth Mar 12, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    Short Interest for Feb 28 is released. It is 8,420,000. Up a little from the end of January, but in line with the number of short shares listed for October, November, and December.

    Short sellers are not driving the high share volume in ELNK for the past 3 months.

    No worries.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Last Month....fwiw

    by mark7182002 Feb 27, 2014 7:48 AM
    accugrowth accugrowth Mar 1, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Yes, the data you display makes my point. The Tutes are doing the trading of 1-2 million ELNK trades per day. Retail shareholders hold too small a pool of shares to sustain the volume.

    The Tutes are probably the holders of the small number of shares sold short. They use them as part of a hedging strategy. To play their game you need to invest in them instead of being a direct investor in ELNK. It is your choice.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Last Month....fwiw

    by mark7182002 Feb 27, 2014 7:48 AM
    accugrowth accugrowth Feb 28, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    I agree that the change in short interest over the past few months is minor. I think that this data indicates that the Shorts are not the main controlling factor.

    I posted earlier that there are 8 institutions with large holdings in ELNK. It seems that they are trading between themselves. The share price may have more to do with tax loss selling than anything else.

  • Reply to

    ELNK Pubished Updated Power Pt Today

    by accugrowth Feb 24, 2014 10:19 AM
    accugrowth accugrowth Feb 25, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    Hey McRed,

    I appreciate your concern for my portfolio. However, the existence of competition is not a reason to hide my money under a rock. ELNK has 90 fiber rings and they own the connections between their Data Centers. RAX is a competitor, but does not have the hard assets to support their VM services.

    The ELNK power point shows that CIOs rate ELNK higher than RAX.

    A combination of RAX and ELNK makes a lot of sense for both companies. RAX is strong internationally, ELNK is strong in the USA.

    The ELNK fiber is already connected with a bunch of the S towers. S closed down the Nextel service at the end of last year. S paid ELNK per the Q4 report. #$%$ upgrades those same towers to Sprint Spark and their LTE build out, ELNK is in the correct position to win those contracts.

    Sorry McRed, fear is not an investment strategy.

  • The updated roadshow slides compare ELNK with its competitors. Most are Cable companies that do not have the same national footprint as ELNK. The Comcast/TimeWarner merger indicates that there may be further consolidation. IMHO ELNK brings hard assets to the table that can attract a bid.

    ELNK also has a history of working with Sprint. The new owner of S wants to expand data centers in Japan, China, and maybe the USA.

    I would not buy a stock on merger rumor alone. However, the new presentation indicates that ELNK is not as bad off as the current stock price implies.

  • Reply to

    ELNK Projections for 2014 Look Good

    by accugrowth Feb 19, 2014 11:21 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Feb 20, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Short sellers only represent 8% of the float. I do not think they are a controlling factor. RAX is dealing with a 19% short interest and they have very little debt to stir the threat of bankruptcy. ELNK has USA fiber routes which are a hard asset; RAX pays rent for everything. It is a Tortoise (ELNK) vs Hare (RAX) thing.

    Future Revenue is the challenge; McRed and I agree on that point. The old CLEC income will carry ELNK for a few more years until the Cloud business grows. This is a long term investment with a dividend that pays you to wait.

    I was hoping for news about the ELNK connection to the Mobile Cloud via Sprint Spark. It looks like I need to wait a bit longer. No worries.

  • ELNK spent lots of money during the past couple of years to build out their network and establish the Data Centers. Therefore, in 2014, Depreciation remains high in the $190M range and will decrease in future years. This a paper write off. Cash Flow will be high enough in 2014 to easily cover the dividend and potential share repurchases during the next several months. No worries.

    The per share Net Loss for 2013, $5.25/share, seems high until you read that it is mostly a paper write off also. The Adjusted Net Loss of $.13/share for Q4 is smaller than the $.19/share Adjusted Net Loss that the company projected on the Q3 report. Most analysts estimated a Net Loss of $.19; the better than expected results should improve the share price tomorrow AM.

    The company does need to express a plan to grow Revenue. Hopefully the new CEO will address this issue in the conference call. McRed will tell us that the sky is falling. IMHO the low debt ratio and cash held puts ELNK in a stronger position than most of their competitors. RAX has lower debt, but they need to spend capital to build out more Data Centers, if they want to grow. The cash to do that needs to come from somewhere. ELNK has completed their build out. Make your own decision regarding who may be in the better position going forward.

  • Tutes own a large percentage of ELNK, 78% per the NASDAQ website. Seven of the eight largest holders reported this week. I pulled the Feb 15, 2013 share holdings from the 2013 Annual Meeting Proxy statement to compare with the Dec 30, 2013 recently reported Tute share count. The results are in date order and in Millions of shares:

    Dimensional 7.795 7.757 small increase
    Vangard 5.710 5.864 small increase
    Sterling 6.968 UNREPORTED YET - indication from Sept 30 is large decrease of 2.0M shares
    Renaissance 6.812 4.650 a decrease of 2.162M shares
    Artisan 7.201 8.479 increase of 1.278M shares
    Blackrock 5.868 7.014 increase of 1.146M shares
    *new WHV as of Dec 30 4.214 decrease of 4.8M shares from Sept 30, 2013
    *new Trioaks as of Dec 30 5.886 increase of .652M from Sept 30, 2013

    Note: WHV and Trioaks held fewer than 5M shares in February 2013 and were not in the list of 5% holders of ELNK stock. That is why they are listed as new. WHV owned over 8M shares on Sept 30, 2013, but then sold almost half during Q4. Therefore, they did a short term increase followed by a short term decrease during the 9 month period covered by this data.

    There is nothing in this data that supports McRed's panic; only 3 of the 8 are selling. The high volume of ELNK shares traded daily seems to be the Tutes trading with each other.

    Retail investors will know more after the bell on Wednesday February 19. IMHO it is better to invest based on facts, rather than emotion.

  • Reply to

    New Pres. buys 300,000 shares @ 4.97

    by insider_buying_alert Feb 1, 2014 1:52 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Feb 4, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Good Morning McRed. By your logic, since AAPL cell phones are expensive, then AAPL is going out of business too. Panic is not a trading or investment strategy.

    I will wait for the facts to be revealed on Feb 20. FY 2014 should bring:
    - lower capital outlays than 2013
    - lower interest payments since debt was restructured in October
    - better tax leverage since the holding company has been formed
    - an increase in ELNK number of employees as they are growing in targeted areas that also happen to be the same metro areas that Sprint Spark has been initiated. ELNK has 115 job openings at the moment.


  • Reply to

    New Pres. buys 300,000 shares @ 4.97

    by insider_buying_alert Feb 1, 2014 1:52 PM
    accugrowth accugrowth Feb 1, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    I am sorry to report that you have misinterpreted the SEC filing. The new ELNK president was granted options and RSU stock by the ELNK Board of Directors on January 17. The shares will come out of our pockets when they vest.

    It would be nice to see the BOD step up and buy more shares. Very few ELNK shares are held by retail investors, like me. The bulk are held by institutions, like Blackrock. The high daily volume of shares that we see are the tutes swapping shares among themselves for whatever hedge they are working. The price is meaningless until ELNK reports on February 20 and provides guidance for 2014.

    They have already indicated that they are done building out new fiber routes and data centers, So, capital costs should decrease going forward. I do have to agree with McRed that Gross Revenue and, eventually, EPS are the important factors for long investors.

    McRed has been correct for the past 6 months. It is yet to be determined what the next 6 months will bring. I believe that ELNK is plugged into the growing Mobile Cloud via its relationship with Sprint Spark. It is the reason Eagle River is interested in ELNK. IMHO

  • accugrowth accugrowth Jan 23, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    I am long. It is not a loss, if you do not sell.

    Eagle River is interested in ELNK; therefore, I am interested.

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