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acedeucenik 6 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2015 10:00 AM Member since: Aug 25, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Volume way down

    by mtrushless May 28, 2015 3:48 PM
    acedeucenik acedeucenik May 29, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    During IPOs analysts run two different scams. First is pulling the rug. They keep pushing up an IPO listing until suckers buy into the momentum (GPRO, SHAK, etc), then they pull the rug out from under them. They usually do this with weak companies companies with a lot of competition, or low barriers to entry.

    Second and the one being played here is take the low float, and Pop and Drop. Push the stock up the first day and drop it after that. Scare the investors with lawsuits where (to be eligible) you need to close your position and realize losses and sell it back to the Analyst. Then the analyst pushes the stock up. They usually do this with strong companies likely to succeed. (FB, ETSY, etc).

    The problem here is that Etsy is probably being bought by women and women have a tendency to hold onto a stock for a while (longer term investment perspective). So there is low volume. Because if traders just traded back and forth it would red flag the SEC for market manipulation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Get real

    by edobrown May 19, 2015 8:15 PM
    acedeucenik acedeucenik May 20, 2015 12:44 AM Flag

    Overstock holds inventory and sells merchandise. Etsy (3.5 percent) collects commissions like eBay (10 percent plus 4 percent paypal). Lots of room for commission rate growth. Ebay had its ups and downs before it became a 70 billion market cap company.

    Apples to apples Etsy will sell slightly more merchandise than Overstock this year. But Etsy collects comissions, while Overstock has to manipulate margins which is why it's valued so cheaply.

    I think Etsy is a long term buy. For some reason wall street is not in love with the stock, but whatever grievance they have will likely be resolved in the coming months as it always is.

    If it hits $15 I would buy a half position and more if it goes lower.

    If you have already bought shares and it drops more buy long term options contracts and double down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wedbush is a scam analyst

    by acedeucenik May 11, 2015 10:11 AM
    acedeucenik acedeucenik May 11, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Search "Star Wars T shirt" on ebay how many of those items are "Counterfeit" or not directly licensed? Many more than found on etsy.

    Same thing for other brands. I would say less on ETSY since you can't sell new goods for most categories. On ebay and amazon you can sell new goods (Beats Headpohones) that are counterfeit.

    Counterfeiting is based on new goods (New Retail products) a company is trying to sell not about the vintage and used items found on ETSY. Most of the questionable items are inline with the other sites and in categories that are not necessarily a threat to profit. ($20 Star Wars inspired T shirt can bring in $5 for amazon earnings, or $3 in ebay earnings after listing and paypal fees) For Etsy its 70 cents. This will not materially affect earnings in a major way. But it will force them to acknowledge it because Wedbush is being hedge fund biased a holes. Selling a vintage handbag (legal) brings in much more in revenue than a inspired t shirt that will not likely be looked at aggressively since the same stuff is on ebay, amazon, and alibaba in higher listing quantities.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • acedeucenik by acedeucenik May 11, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    Majority of the high end luxury goods Wedbush references are VINTAGE GOODS (which means used and old).

    What possibly makes their coverage illegal is that there is a vintage isolation button on the side of the site.

    Upscale means to take something cut it up and make something else or enhance an item (handmade earrings, necklaces, bedazzling, etc). A lot of the handmade items fall into that category.

    The small amount of what is left is directly inline with stuff sold on ebay, amazon, and alibaba.

    WEDBUSH should instead state.

    LETS SAY TRADEMARK HOLDERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON ETSY THEN THEY ARE ON EBAY, AMAZON, OR ALIBABA it could lower listings revenue or growth. But that won't grab headlines.

  • Wedbush failed to discount vintage or inspired merchandise. Instead lumped it in with counterfeiting.

    Lets take Disney for example.

    Lots of listings fall within the inspired category. Such as Disney inspired lettering for names, etc.
    Lots of listings fall within the vintage category. Items that are older than 20 years.
    Some items are upscaled disney items (enhanced).

    No one is selling fake diamond rings on Etsy. Knick Knacks and crafts are often given a pass because hard to prosecute unless there is direct trademark infrigement. (usually counterfitting merchandise a company sells). Inspired merchandise doesn't usually fall into that category.

    The physical idea of counterfeiting has to do with Beats headphones, Louis Vutton handbags, Rolex Watches, Oakley Sunglasses. None of these items are on etsy. I can tell you for a fact that a lot of these items are on Ebay, Amazon and Alibaba right now.

    Wedbush is dead wrong. They are known to cater false coverage to hedge funds. Hopefully they get short squeezed this time around would serve them right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It will be interesting what price targets they give Etsy.

    Commissions on the site are currently 3.5% (lots of room to increase), by comparison Ebay is 10% and Amazon is even higher.

    The site would be a perfect fit (takeover target) for Yahoo, Google, or Microsoft. Neither of them have succeeded in eCommerce and all have tried. Buying a niche site like this for even $5 billion would give them access to millions of sellers and tens of millions of buyers.

    Ebay and Amazon are flooded with nonsense listings. Hard to find anything useful. It takes hours to find anything interesting on Ebay or Amazon. With Etsy and their listing standards the site is more concise and much easier to find cool stuff quick.

    Only other IPOs that had confidence to give their users shares in recent memory are Dave and Busters (PLAY) and Google and both of them did very well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy