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Prosperity Bancshares Inc. Message Board

aceputseller2000 1900 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 6, 2012 10:36 AM Member since: May 26, 2002
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  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Nov 6, 2012 10:36 AM Flag

    DTG-I am thinking that the odss are better than 50-50 that FTC approves.... but even if FTC blocks the deal, the story won’t end there. We will have to see what the FTC says and how they frame their decision. Just my opinion.....wondering how you guys are seeing it

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Nov 1, 2012 8:16 PM Flag

    AT- I agree...and am also talking my book.....This deal was as solid as they come in my opinion. At times like this I wonder why I spend my time with arb at all. I remember MT felt like that last year (and I did too to a degree) when rock solid deals had spreads that blew up.....If DTG and NXY are going to keep me up at night well is it all worth it? Yes it is risk arb I know but I dont play the riskier deals because I choose to sleep at night....I am still in DTG and NXY and expect them to close...not sure the market agrees with me...but moving forward regardless of the outcome I am going to rethink my arbness........

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Nov 1, 2012 12:23 PM Flag

    Sounds like you bailed at a good time MT-. I'm still feeling the pain here...should know soon as tender expires Monday and the FTC deadline is 10 days after....wouldn't be surpried to hear from FTC one way or another next week, perhaps late in the week after the election.
    Prices seem to be telling us that the deal will be blocked...10 bucks down in a week or so.......but who knows...the market doesnt always get it right....If this is blocked doesnt anyone have a thought as to the odds of Hertz winning the suit? I have no idea......
    If we are bocked where does DTG trade down to....hard to say....price has been held up by merger...but guidance rasied today by company.....and who knows does AVIS come back if this is scuttled?
    There was thought of Hertz buying Dollar and not Thrifty as a way to get deal done......
    Still in and suffering.......

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Oct 20, 2012 3:42 PM Flag

    DTG-I am surprised that this hasn't been approved yet. As bad as Hertz seems to want DTG I imagine that they would be willing to throw another small bone or two to get the sign off. Also can't imagine the date would be extended again, meaning that less than a month left here.....still feel just a tiny chance of this falling through.....Agree?

    NXY-Boy until yesterday this seemed to have a pretty high chance of going through (in my opinion of course). First a canadian telecom deals gets blocked Friday.....and then Saturday Canadian officials stop the Progress Energy merger. The Nexen deal makes great economic sense...but now who knows if that will be enough. The US cant block the deal though they can in worse case forced CNOOC to divest Nexen's US assets (I believe they account for 9 percent of Nexen).....Any thoughts on percentages that Canada approves this deal?

  • aceputseller2000 by aceputseller2000 Oct 20, 2012 3:37 PM Flag

    DTG-I am surprised that this hasn't been approved yet. As bad as Hertz seems to want DTG I imagine that they would be willing to throw another small bone or two to get the sign off. Also can't imagine the date would be extended again, meaning that less than a month left here.....still feel just a tiny chance of this falling through.....Agree?

    NXY-Boy until yesterday this seemed to have a pretty high chance of going through (in my opinion of course). First a canadian telecom deals gets blocked Friday.....and then Saturday Canadian officials stop the Progress Energy merger. The Nexen deal makes great economic sense...but now who knows if that will be enough. The US cant block the deal though they can in worse case forced CNOOC to divest Nexen's US assets (I believe they account for 9 percent of Nexen).....Any thoughts on percentages that Canada approves this deal?

  • aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Oct 20, 2012 11:22 AM Flag

    Yes I believe 3/4 of Nexen's assets aren't in Canada

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Oct 18, 2012 9:25 AM Flag

    AT-
    Yeah the DTG saga has been going on forever it seems.....Today's pushback to Nov 16 is frustrating.....a decline today is understandable but I am surprised by the extent of the drop....Hertz has been working closely with FTC..hard to believe after all the time invested by the Hertz that they won't end up with DTG...maybe an additional concession needs to be made....who knows

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Oct 3, 2012 2:15 PM Flag

    Anyone see an arb here? 4 bucks in dividend.....Is anyone playing this at all?

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Sep 5, 2012 12:18 AM Flag

    testing to see if this new system works.....

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Aug 16, 2012 11:34 AM Flag

    Yeah I had some problems posting as well. It seems like it has been fixed

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Aug 14, 2012 11:21 AM Flag

    AT- agree that spreads would be the way to go for SHAW but they are quite illiquid. THe Jan 14 30 put can be sold for 2 bucks, which seems like a good sale to me. I have half a position on SHAW at this point. Meanwhile with recent closings I havent had fewer positons since 2008. Top three ARBA, CBE, and AGP

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Aug 2, 2012 1:25 PM Flag

    There have been plenty of cases where the acquiring company structures a merger in a way that bypasses shareholder voting of its stock

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Aug 2, 2012 11:26 AM Flag

    Hi. I asn't talking my book...I was explaining why I bought the stock. My feeling is (and it could be wrong) that CBI wouldn't put a clause in the MA which stipulated that its shareholders had to approved if it didnt feel very sure that they would. Of course with the stock down since the agreement the potential is there for some shareholders to change their minds.....This is all just my opinion of course....and good luck to you

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Aug 1, 2012 10:51 PM Flag

    Lots of boxes to check here....I would think CBI knows that they have enough votes from their shareholders or they wouldnt have gone through with the merger...would have liked to see a much larger breakup fee.....and not thrilled by the financial hurdles in the deal...but with the 24 percent AR 15 percent of which is total return I put on halfa position today....hopefully I will feel confident enough at some point to add the second half

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Jul 30, 2012 12:41 PM Flag

    .12883 shares of CBI plus 41 cash....

    nice AR

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Jul 23, 2012 2:19 PM Flag

    Any thoughts on PEET?

  • aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Jun 20, 2012 11:46 PM Flag

    Anybody get Doody's Silver picks? I'm away this week and I can't seem to access it on my cell phone.

  • Reply to

    Looks like $28 payout has many risks

    by mara_serena Feb 29, 2012 9:35 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 May 9, 2012 5:22 PM Flag

    testing

  • aceputseller2000 by aceputseller2000 Apr 24, 2012 12:11 PM Flag

    Option volitility exploding...it never feels good to watch a stock you own go down in size and volume where there is no news out there.....To Google and the media this transaction has essentially closed.....someone forgot to tell the traders

  • Reply to

    OT: - RDN MTG

    by johnofstock Sep 13, 2007 2:36 PM
    aceputseller2000 aceputseller2000 Dec 28, 2011 11:44 AM Flag

    Sorry I meant to say I am short bcsi JAN 14 15 strike puts

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