We are also coming off two relatively strong POMO days. One small injection on Thursday and nothing more until next Tuesday.
Great news! China also kicked in $81 billion in stimulus, which should give us another boost today
Here's what's bothering me:
1. USD/BRL still hovering near recent high.
2. There was a big POMO day yesterday and a moderate one on Monday. There is a small injection on Thursday but nothing else until next Tuesday.
3. The Fed meeting today and tomorrow pose a lot of uncertainty and risk.
4. If Scotland votes for independence, its going to jolt the currency markets and create more uncertainty.
Agree, this is holding pretty strong here. OTOH, you need to keep a close eye on the SPX reaction to the Fed this week. If US markets go down, Brazil will likely follow.
My point exactly, Austin. I think we just put in a short term bottom though. We have a couple of days of POMO on Mon and Tues that should give us a boost early next week.
This pre-election panic dominated before Lula was voted in also. VALE is actually holding up very well on the BVSP today along with my other holdings EBR and GFA.
This will reverse just as quickly as it went down, but we could see another $0.15 slide in the USD/BRL if the dollar strength doesn't reverse soon. What's really making me more nervous than anything is that the SPX and DAX are looking tired. If we get another "correction" in US markets, EMs will likely sell off hard as they tend to do.
You guys need to start watching currency exchange rates if you're going to dabble in EMs.
USD/BRL spiked 1.44% so far.
Nice moves RQ. A few of my posts during the past couple of days have disappeared. A lot of Brazilian stocks seem to have bottomed, but the currency took a big hit this AM.
A couple of macro-economic considerations:
1. New poll shows Dilma now tied with SIlva in runoff.
2. Moody's lowered Brazil's outlook to "negative" on concerns of low growth. S&P did the same in March. Both agencies continue to rate Brazil on the lower end of investment grade.
3. USD/BRL had a bad day, which probably reflects the combination of the news, but also tends to happen near turning points.
No doubt. I could see trading MCD too. My comment regarding fundamentals was really geared toward their U.S. posture more than anything.
Wow. That is small. Wise to use this to supplement your dividend holdings. I like to swing trade long, and sometimes resort to ETF shorting vehicles when opportunities dry up. I'm pretty bad at shorting, though, and tend to break even more often than profiting.
Filled out my GFA position at $2.71. The weekly has worked itself into a tight wedge that will have to resolve soon. I see the BB at $2.68 providing likely support on the downside as well.