Agree, this is holding pretty strong here. OTOH, you need to keep a close eye on the SPX reaction to the Fed this week. If US markets go down, Brazil will likely follow.
My point exactly, Austin. I think we just put in a short term bottom though. We have a couple of days of POMO on Mon and Tues that should give us a boost early next week.
This pre-election panic dominated before Lula was voted in also. VALE is actually holding up very well on the BVSP today along with my other holdings EBR and GFA.
This will reverse just as quickly as it went down, but we could see another $0.15 slide in the USD/BRL if the dollar strength doesn't reverse soon. What's really making me more nervous than anything is that the SPX and DAX are looking tired. If we get another "correction" in US markets, EMs will likely sell off hard as they tend to do.
You guys need to start watching currency exchange rates if you're going to dabble in EMs.
USD/BRL spiked 1.44% so far.
Nice moves RQ. A few of my posts during the past couple of days have disappeared. A lot of Brazilian stocks seem to have bottomed, but the currency took a big hit this AM.
A couple of macro-economic considerations:
1. New poll shows Dilma now tied with SIlva in runoff.
2. Moody's lowered Brazil's outlook to "negative" on concerns of low growth. S&P did the same in March. Both agencies continue to rate Brazil on the lower end of investment grade.
3. USD/BRL had a bad day, which probably reflects the combination of the news, but also tends to happen near turning points.
No doubt. I could see trading MCD too. My comment regarding fundamentals was really geared toward their U.S. posture more than anything.
Wow. That is small. Wise to use this to supplement your dividend holdings. I like to swing trade long, and sometimes resort to ETF shorting vehicles when opportunities dry up. I'm pretty bad at shorting, though, and tend to break even more often than profiting.
Filled out my GFA position at $2.71. The weekly has worked itself into a tight wedge that will have to resolve soon. I see the BB at $2.68 providing likely support on the downside as well.
Something about MCD sales slumping 25% in Japan in August after a safety scare. I don't like the fundamentals on that company at all at these levels.
You definitely have a better stomach for these leveraged plays than I do. I pretty much broke even on my BZQ/BRZS campaign. A couple of things to keep your eye on if you continue to hold BRZS:
1. Moody's downgraded the credit today.
2. New polls show Dilma now tied with Sliva in the second round.
3. Sharp currency drop today.
#2 is clearly bearish, though I think we'll see a buy the bad news rally when Dilma finally wins on Oct 20th.
#1 and #3 tend to mark turning points to the upside. There is like more volatility to come in whatever case.
OTOH, we have a couple of POMO days (today and tomorrow).
I think you're right about GFA support being at the lower BB ($2.67) I'm seeing other signs of diagonal support on the daily ADR and local shares as well.
I'm watching PCLN pretty carefully here. I like the sideways move at the lower BB, oversold RSI, and underside wicks. Could be good for a 10% move up to the top of the BB.
VALE is looking pretty solid from a technical perspective. There are some really good posts on the MB from cash.mcall laying out the fundamentals.