tech metrics lined up to say the market is happy, but who knows how fast it'll go or where it'll end up...
-- happy there was $3 / share cash and $4 on assets. With even a few gas stations = place to optimize profit on biodiesel.... GLTA .
I agree with Marcino... (although it doesn't necessarily always hold for XIN...) ---- lots of ways to explain it, but bottom line is the price at which the option writers pay out the least (it was $5 for XIN and since there were more calls than puts, closing slightly below 5 was most advantageous). (Strike Price Pegging, Max Pain (same as strike price pegging), Real Pain (strike price for minimal payout for options written since the last options maturity date). Google real pain or max pain theory for more info --- studies show it doesn't work across the board, across the market -- but in some situations it helps explain behavior. XIN this month definitely could have been one of those....
Short interest is not climbing. Essentially static since the runup of 600K shares from 800x to 1400x between 11/29 and Mid December.
From my vantage point -- stock is in low volume holding pattern because there are lots of longs who believe the company is real and lots of shorts who believe it's not.
Interesting - as both could use a dip their advantage - and such a dip would create buying pressure from both sides at some point (eg if I shorted at $0.95, if the stock went to $0.50 -- I might close to hedge my bet. If I'm long, $0.50 looks like a pretty cool entry point to load the truck ---- This happened in early december when the meeting was a week away and it resulted in a doubling of the stock price form 50 to 100.
GLTA to long and short ---
Long hoping it goes back to 50 cents really soon. (because I think we're going to get information from the company on the financials pretty soon).
3rd reason for short to rise.... stock momentum and rise --- folks sold short between Dec 4 and Dec 9 at $0.90 to $1.00 --- could have absorbed the volume (remember everyone thought financials were 1-2 weeks away).... Those shorts are still in the money, bought recently and could make sense to them to trade on the momentum.
Volatility -- buy sell / shares / puts / calls to ride the volatility up and down...
Buy and hold - and go to the beach --
Easy to quantify the 2nd for last year, the first - obviously has a variable result...
Buy this time last year = about $3.50 / share.
Sell end of December last year = about $5.30 / share
20 cents dividend (is that the right number for the year)
Net = start with $3.50 / share. End with $2/share extra - less 2 transaction fees....
2/3.5 = 57% return. Broad market = 20-40% return.
I'm sure at least some who weighted and waited XIN in their portfolio activity last year beat the market (which, of course, itself had an awesome year) -- I know of at least one who did.
Any thoughts on best way to do it this year?
Thoughts from others? -- Did Fund Window Dressing cause this bad boy to whipsaw +/- 20 cents and are we at the end of the whipsaw? --- Just noticed there was a spike buy of 120K shares on Dec 31st -- Stock went up by 20 cents and bounced for a few days. 120K spike sale just after the first of the year (again, within an immediate time slot -- and way out of whack with surrounding volume at that moment.) - Stock went down, has been bouncing down 20 cents for a few days. May well regress back to 5.30's as near term stability. Thoughts -- if so, would seem it's sooner rather than later....
Best interest of shareholders may be to get the nuisance lawsuit closed. consistent strategy and actions over the last few years, aiming in that direction...
we've been at the bottom edge of the multiyear channel for a bit now... Any predictions on how long to make the jumps up to various resistance/support levels?
Thread to zero in on true value -- lots on this board have been around for years -- let's bring up details into 1 thread & see if we can get a bead on value supportable by facts....
To start the process -- here's a suggested outside boundary range $0 to $15 / share.
- Cash on Hand
- Growth from time of last known (Auditors/Sherman said 2010 was OK from a cash perspective)
- shares and any dilution
new high (low volume..) --- Do we close above .90 today to celebrate the blizzard of 2014... GLTA
unusual volume and much tighter bid-ask than we've seen lately.... Does it suggest something afoot? Thoughts?
perhaps some are digging in for blizzard in Northeast US. 5 day chart on this end shows stock rising (60 to 70 to 80 cents), not moving down. Am I looking at it upside down?
Whitegod, Happy New Year & hope you enjoy posting thoughts elsewhere as there won't be a need to do it on this board anymore.
Market cap stays the same - about 390 million @ $5.35 / share. Debt is higher - but historically was not high. US building (421 Kent) requires assets in US dollars -- they have access to US dollars now. As investors, we have US assets that US courts could attach if necessary.
This could be a great entry spot for someone to buy Whitegods 8000 shares --- we are sitting at about the 200 day average. The stock has been channelling from a low of the 200 day average to about 30-40% higher over the last few years. Jan - April tends to have a peak in value, as does October. Nov / Dec tend to be low.
As we all know, past trends don't equal future trends.
I looked at the open complaints. Marcino is correct the final building is not yet approved -- here is the note -- "Development Challenge Process is pending Zoning Approval. For any issues, please contact the relevant borough office."
Not clear whether this is expected or unexpected at this point in the development process. Also, not clear if this would keep pre-sales from beginning in the spring. There is definitely site work going on (based on curb site in NY).
Thanks! Adding Avenue was the key. While at the site - I looked at the codes -- The complaints related to fencing and debris from demolition. Resolved late November. Some others brought up, but no violation found. Sounds as if the complaints were around time site cleanup was occurring.
tried to check the website. put in 421 Kent as street address and brooklyn as borough -- came up as not on file. Marcino - did you access it differently?
Buyers in NY are going crazy -- 2 fronts - financial and creative US and in addition - foreign buyers.... Recent magazine article described narrative and selling process --- ego as much as value. Luxury condos in NY becoming more desirable way to store wealth in the form of an asset -- more fun than gold.
Good news for XIN, aiming for luxury Chinese market....