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PHAZAR AO Message Board

adeelmd 185 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 11:31 AM Member since: Apr 6, 2004
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  • Reply to

    gonna bounce

    by harrypyeeter Jun 30, 2015 9:16 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 30, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    If you sold any CEMP yesterday, that qualifies as a weak hand, Don't feel bad about it, just don't do it again. Remember, they have better chips than swks, offer better at cybersecurity than cybr, and make better drones than AMBA. Plus, they are launching a new music streaming service that is going be better than apple or spotify!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 2 Gonorrhea now published

    by kiddo1428 Jun 26, 2015 1:01 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 29, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    bump

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Think we have scene the lows

    by liebel53 Jun 26, 2015 11:30 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 26, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    I agree with you, but for 10 people who hides money in the mattress, there is at least one who wants to put it into a stock. I can easily see a flight from european equities and US stocks with strong international presence to US based healthcare and biotech.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Think we have scene the lows

    by liebel53 Jun 26, 2015 11:30 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 26, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    more than that, when will people realize that healthcare and biotech are IMMUNE to greece? People weren't selling off biotech in January when oil was bottoming. The rationale I HOPE plays out is that when and if Greece doesn't happen, even cash will get hurt because that would mean interest rates are not going anywhere near term. Where do you put your money except in US healthcare and biotech?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    History Shall Repeat

    by golongin2008 Jun 22, 2015 11:32 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 25, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    bump

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Long time CEMP holder.

    by jrs1476 Jun 24, 2015 3:14 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 24, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    If a deal had been reached between creditors and Greece, do you think CEMP would be down 7% today?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd adeelmd Jun 24, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    It's Greece. Greexit means markets down = biotech down = sell off cemp. Closing above 38 yesterday makes me believe we are still in breakout territory, meaning I think we will be making higher highs and higher lows instead of the lower highs and higher lows we were making before. I like the bounce back from the 50 day, but 33 could be possible by the end of the week (and likewise 39-40 are just as possible)

    I don't fully understand the connection, as biotech are technically the most immune to Greece, but the correlation is there; nothing else has changed since yesterday except chances of a Greek deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Stifel PT $57

    by enjoythetour Jun 23, 2015 7:31 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 23, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Thanks a lot! I am "assuming" that their $57 model doesn't take ex-us sales, sales for taksta, and sales for other indication like urti (or even UTI) into account. This is fun for me because it not only gives us a real life evaluation of the company, but also gives us some insight on what the market is essentially ignoring.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Stifel PT $57

    by enjoythetour Jun 23, 2015 7:31 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 23, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    I suggest people search $cemp on twitter to read at least the first page of the stiftel report. They estimate 10% of the pediatric zithromax market, and suggest potential inclusion of solithromycin in idsa/ats guidelines due in 2017. They also believe a well resourced partner would be better to market solithromycin for the wide variety of indications for which the drug would prove relevant; but say that the company can go it alone if need be. Nash and copd are not included in the PT and could represent "substantially greater upside".

    If anyone has access to to full report, some additional details would be nice, especially if TAKSTA was included. Has any analyst priced in the possibility of this being used for URTI, or are all price models basing this off the pna market only?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd by adeelmd Jun 22, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    There is a snapshot of a Roth note on twitter (can't verify the date). They reiterate a $42 pt, but then say "upside to our target is ex-us, pediatric, and Cempra's secondary pipeline compount Taksta"

    What' a load of #$%$? Yeah my price target for appl is $40, with the upside to my target being iphone sales.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Makes sense now why they amended deal with Celg. MM and HPV, now there's two anti-cancer treatments that we knew nothing about a few weeks ago. Anyone want to bet there wont be any more before the end of the summer?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BLUE is oversold

    by adeelmd Jun 21, 2015 3:03 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 21, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    but juno is? rcpt is? pbyi is? 18 months before approval, with ccald approval coming before that. i'm just saying that if that's the thesis, then no biotech clinical stage biotech is worth their market cap. Might as well short the entire ibb.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • this is a question for short sellers, really. Blue has an RSI of 46, and we all know what has happened EVERY time the rsi gets this low for blue (look at the 1 year chart). There is also no imminent data release pending that could have bad data. So while I understand shorting blue at 190+, what is the thesis for shorting at these levels at an RSI that is so low and no near term catalyst?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Almost every long on every yhoo msg board talks about price manipulation as a reason their favorite pick is down that day. More seasoned investors talk TA. This post is meant to propose a thesis that looks a little more behind those factors to try to determine what the real reason is behind CEMP's price swings. What changed yesterday to give us 7% and why is CEMP holding up pretty well today seeing how the market is red? I think it goes a little bit deeper than simply tracking the IBB or another stock. IMHO, CEMP moves up and down based on whether or not people think there will be a biotech correction or boom in near-term.

    CLDX shows a very similar chart to CEMP and probably trades on the same factor (not recommending buying or selling cldx). This also explains why IBB usually tracks with cemp, but sometimes the two diverge. If the general market thesis is that biotechs are due for a correction, CEMP goes down no matter what the averages or IBB does and conversly, when sentiment is that biotech is going to sizzle, CEMP will go up no matter what the averages do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LISTEN TO THE DEALS!

    by i.short_stocks Jun 18, 2015 5:08 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 18, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    Excellent.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • in the morning. Bound to go up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Solithromycin

    by jcv51 Jun 17, 2015 10:05 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 18, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    The hope for us longs is that by the time those results are near, we will have already broken to new high and be approaching 50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cemp after ignite2 data

    by gullibleguy Jun 18, 2015 9:13 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jun 18, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    I think all abx stocks will rise and fall according to how ttph moves. It will be the "leader" of the sector immediately before and after data release.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd adeelmd Jun 18, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    My main concerns with blue at the moment are related to Greece and the overall market. Since a greexit probably means no rate hike in 2015, and a greece deal means a rate hike in September, will the market now rally on a greexit and go down if a deal is reached? It''s hard to know how the market will behave now....

  • adeelmd adeelmd Jun 18, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    nice. pick a disease in which a majority of patients die before they reach eight years of age (CCALD) and compare it to diseases in which a majority of affected patients reach adulthood. nice try. Let me know how many 20-something ccald patients you can find.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy