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PHAZAR AO Message Board

adeelmd 124 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 6, 2004
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  • Reply to

    calm down

    by adeelmd 16 hours ago

    Also, I still believe that non-inferiority is the goal because that is what the study was designed as and will be enough to generate 1-2 billion sales. If superiority is proven in the IV trial, we are looking at a 2-3 billion sales short term. I can imagine a scenario where a narrowed label would help expedite approval. If that were the case, cempra would have just gone for gono indication and just avoided CABP altogether. I am sure the FDA could have suggested such an approach before pivotal trials were designed, but every indication from mgmt appears that they are aggressively pursuing 1st line indications.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes aapl is going to $10 and nflx will be a penny stock soon. No stock is worth anything anymore. Everyone will loose their jobs as interest rates go up to 54% because of Ben Ghazi. China is about to break up a la USSR because it is only growing at 4%, not 7%. You are still not getting my blue shares!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It feels like every stock out there is not worth the paper it is printed on. No stock, no matter how much of upside earnings surprise they deliver is going up. The only biotech stocks that have gone up recently are only because they HAD to, due to an acquisition or fda approval. Regarding, MS hold rating, analysts clamor to be the ones that call the top, or pick out something that all the other analysts missed. If they agree with consensus, no one would care about their calls, and if they are wrong, people will just forget.

    There is near full employment, low commodity prices, low interest rates, modest growth, and a dow trading at historically low p/e levels. For people to think that the downturn will continue much longer is ridiculous.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cemp has held up well considering the market destruction over the past week. 5 trillion dollars in world market cap flushed because China might grow at 4% (not 7%). That's twice the GDP of the UK! Dow is now 700 points off its low and more likely to turn green than retest 15119 anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CEMP IS A BEAST

    by adeelmd May 29, 2015 5:49 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 20, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Seems like everytime their is a market downturn, people think it means something regarding CEMP. Where was CEMP last time nasdaq was below 5000? It was trading at $36.27. Then there are people who claim that CEMP stock wont go up until AFTER data comes out. So sell on the rumor, buy on the news? That's usually not how it works in biotech.

    Look, Oil is crashing, there is a currency war going on, and companies better than CEMP such as aapl and dis are getting demolished. When CEMP made a 52 week high back in March at 40.92, it promptly fell down to 30.30 and languished in that trading range until it broke out last month to $46.99. Today, Its again a little over $10 dollars from its 52 week high, and again due to a bad overall market, and nothing relating to the soli trial or Cempra.

    Except this time, we don't have to wait six months in a trading range. IV data will be out in TWO months tops and PDUFA will come December, early Jan. When Congress is back in session this September, there will be renewed calls to pass the CURES act as well other legislation that will only help CEMPRA. Finally, A lot of large cap biotechs are hungry for new acquisitions, and a biotech acquisition can occur at anytime.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • According to flyonthewall, Aug 12 Roth note said that Blue's SCD revenues significantly limited by GBT, and would see wekanees until ASH in December. According to Streetinsider's reporting on the SAME Roth note, the analyst said that if recent weakness is due to GBT, blue should be bought and reiterated a $192 PT. The analyst also added that prior trials involving oral SCD treatments have failed due to side effects, and that GBT is testing patients who do not need transfusions. How can the same note have two completely different press articles?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley Coverage.

    by silverold Aug 13, 2015 12:27 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 14, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    fwiw, @asclepiacap on twitter has the MS analyst report, plus a bunch of old cempra press releases that counter the analyst thoughts. Might have to go back more than few posts to get the original report.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley Coverage.

    by silverold Aug 13, 2015 12:27 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 13, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    Any analyst who comes up with 1.8 billion peak annual sales, and then sets a price target of approximately 2 billion market cap is just plain making up numbers. If I was going to put a $40 PT, I would have pegged peak sales at 500-600 million range. Based on MS own peak sales estimates, a $60-$70 PT would be more accurate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Solithromycin and pseudomonas

    by adeelmd Aug 12, 2015 3:15 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 12, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    I follow him too. Out of all the anti-cemp opinions I have read on the net, he poses the most intelligent ones. I think amoxicillin and augmentin are fine abx and will be used for many years, but solithromycin will take its place among them. The guidelines will eventually be revised to include solithromycin if the pediatric trials are successful. Those guidelines are older than most people on this forum.

    Most amoxicillin and z-packs are given as empiric therapy for what eventually turns out to be self-limited viral infections. While some might argue solithromycin wont be used in this population, I argue that when a physician is presented with a mild infection that is "probably" viral, their main goals are to make sure the patient gets better the first time, everytime. Even insurance companies would rather treat 1000 out of 1000 patients with soli rather than risk one of them coming back to the ER or having to be admitted because their infection turned out to be resistant to whatever el-cheapo antibiotic they chose.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A couple of people here and on twitter have said that solithromycin does not kill pseudomonas. I can't find any evidence of that. What I did find was an article showing that soli does kill pseudomonas, and that macrolides as a class may fair better against pseudomonas in VIVO compared to in VITRO (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22573850).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd by adeelmd Aug 12, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    per S-1 Filing: "The development of Tuceresol, a hemoglobin modifying compound that was observed to have anti-hemolytic and anti-sickling effect in SCD patients was discontinued by Burroughs Wellcome and Co due to immune-related effects" GBT440 binds to hemoglobin molecules and may have similar side effects.

    There is only one BLUE!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd adeelmd Aug 10, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Don't listen to me (or anyone else on this board), just look at the management team and draw your own conclusions. David Oldach left GILD in 2011 for this company, when he could have just ridden on the success of HCV. Prabha has brought four antibiotics to market including clarithromycin.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the shorts are playing

    by tonysteri Aug 10, 2015 1:06 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 10, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    bought more today. I've come to realize irrational sell-offs are just part of CEMP's style. Oral phase 3 is complete and the analyses is out there. IV should have completed a few weeks ago and we are just waiting for the number crunchers to go through the data.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd adeelmd Aug 6, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    I agree, people coming on cnbc today telling everyone to sell dis and buy nflx are about 8 months too late. There's no reason DIS can't charge nflx more, or use another distribution channel. There is no reason ESPN can't offer streaming subscriptions for a la cart gen-x users.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Did you get caught

    by stilllondgo Jan 15, 2015 5:11 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 5, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    bump. It's a good read if you bother to go through the required clicks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    i see same ttph play

    by stock_lurker Aug 5, 2015 1:00 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 5, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    I don't see ibb going down anytime soon. It just bounced off the 50 day while AGN and GILD are shopping for more than one acquisition a piece. Plus, NFLX & AMBA are too high, AAPL is scarily low, and China is the new Greece.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Prabhas presentation

    by kiddo1428 Jul 31, 2015 11:03 AM
    adeelmd adeelmd Aug 3, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    please don't the insult the sith by saying pharma"jedi" is one of us (after all, radiology is a "dark" art). He has no understanding of the force, light or dark.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adeelmd adeelmd Jul 31, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    his comments were very much like macbeth; full of sound and fury and signifying nothing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Request for scientific discussion

    by options_leaps Jul 30, 2015 5:10 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jul 31, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    Soli is active against gram negatives, that's the entire point of the gono trial! They have not found a bacteria that soli does not kill, whether it is positive, negative, or neither (ie mycoplasma).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Request for scientific discussion

    by options_leaps Jul 30, 2015 5:10 PM
    adeelmd adeelmd Jul 30, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    I appreciate that someone willing to dig into the details of this company is willing to put up coherent arguments that are negative. Agree that no C. Diff is strange and can't really be explained. Thousands of patients have been on soli and not one has got it yet, so it is rather strange. Maybe it's luck, maybe there is a mechanism that can't be explained; but thousands of treated patients isn't a small number.

    I think it might be beneficial to look at this abx from a clinicians perspective. A Dr. might prescribe moxi for someone below the age of 18, but only in extreme circumstances and would never do it for a pregnant patient. In patients with PNA, a clinician might opt with current standard to save $$, but it is more than likely they would rather spend the extra $$ on soli in order to save days spent in the hospital. Even if reduced mortality in port III and port IV does not prove statistically significant, there is enough of a numbers gap to make it borderline malpractice not to give the superior abx in these patients, especially if there are long term sequelae.

    The valuation of this company is the main reason I am in it. According to Roth, PAS of 2.9 billion in 2023 (not counting ex-us sales, CF, NASH, pregnancy, TAKSTA) puts this at a forward p/e of 0.68. Compared to other biotech stocks, that is a very reasonable risk/reward ratio. Name one other biotech that is this close to approval and has such high sales estimates. Also, big pharma is interested in this, the same way they were interested in cbst, i see CEMP as being superior.

    At the end of the day you have an abx that has no known bacterial resistance and is safe in pregnancy and pediatrics. There's potential for pipeline in product with NASH, COPD and now CF. And all of that is coming from a stellar management team that has a history of bring blockbuster drugs to market. There are plenty of #$%$ clinical stage biotechs worth there weight in short gold, but CEMP isn't one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy