Now we know where the sellers are coming from. If ETRM ever gets its act in order where they start publishing some bullish news I would expect strong rally as shorts run to cover. I don't know what they see to short this stock, my guess is they bet and got it wrong and now put more money hoping FDA rejects VBLOC, which it will not.
I raise my target forcast from $ 10 to $ 30 based on the following:
a) Inability of diet pills to treat obesity issue in USA
b) Obosolence of stomach staple surgery
The market is wide open to ETRM with not one competitor in sight.
Launch of VBLCO will be done in Quarter ending in December 2014, approval of device will be in the week of September 15 to September 19
The launch will be done in the countries of USA, Austrialia, Middle East and Europe.
The infrastructure is in place with doctors and clinics. ETRM needs a well train staff of sales people perhaps 30 at most.
Sales target to hit between $ 1 billion and $ 3 billion per year.
Patients treated will be between 100,000 and 300,000 patients.
Price of device will be $ 10,000 and, is to be covered by insurance for a slight premium increase.
Earnings per share will range from $ 3 per share (base) to a high of $ 12 per share.
This is the adelfig report for those interested.
just my honest opinion
If we had investors whom believed in their investments we would have been over $ 10 by now but we live with the reality that most of the holders of this stock are your ordinary farmers with grade 3 education and have no guts to hold.
You honestly believe ETRM is fairly valued at $ 98 million?
I don`t know what competitors like Medtronic are waiting for, I would launch bid at $ 6 per share, nice premium for them, cheap acquistion for Medtronic and huge potential to bring in lots of money if properly marketed around the world.
Just read off the press wires and also on this board that ARNA CEO just sold 40% of his holdings all in one shot and, on a declining price hitting new lows. This is a sign that pills are flopping, following VVUS track record and delay in approval in OREX pills.
FDA is putting a hold on pills, it looks like. It don`t sell.
MARKET is now WIDE OPEN for ETRM....no competition at all. Knudson pretty smart, has built up the VBLOC licenses which will represent significant patent value as bidding war develops for ETRM.
ARNA and VVUS may also make a bid for ETRM.
Lots of interest here....
If Baker brothers is indeed loading up we will be over $ 5 in no time. Perhaps crew run dream is true.
Not nice. We are at the bottom of the 2nd inning and you have already thrown in the towel. Wait ntil the 9th inning before pronouncing judgement.
To all the hypocrites you say I am pumping, do me favor, when price does go double digits, make sure you give the additional profit you called pumping to charity. Put your words where your mouth is.
Can you post a link to what this someone said? I looked at Baker Bros, $ 6 billion in assets and as of March 31, 2014 I see no ETRM. Perhaps June 30, 2014 report when it is out. They specialize in buyout positions I think.
The fact that ETRM has not pushed the VBLOC in either of the markets of Austrialia, Middle East and Europe preferring to have all approvals in place while awaiting FDA shows a strategic plan to sell the company. Knudson has a track history of build them and sell them, mostly to Medtronic. Knudson does not operte companies for profit.
The value of the VBLOC patent that can be marketed to other uses around the world is easily $ 900 million.
The fact that there are no VBLOC sales has left the door open to a potential buyer to market VBLOC as they deem it properly instead of having had ETRM give it a try and done it right or incorrectly.
Targeting the Vagus nerve is the new hot biotech idea and we are in the middle of this new innovation.
I remember once working on a file where one of my clients was quietly acquiring empty residential lots of land in the middle of nowhere. It seemed like he did not know what he was doing. Once he accumulated all private lots he was owner to a few acres in land. What people did not know was that a highway was going to be built next to this land. He then converted all of the land from residential to commercial. He went around and then shopped his land to a big anchor like an Walmart who was interested because the whole land came in one piece. When Walmart purchased part of the land he built a shopping center next to it using his land as collateral and obtain huge funds from the bank.
All to say that he spent $ 100,000 acquiring this land by using options only to the title, while he shopped it around. When deal was finalized he closed his sale price. At the end what you must know is that with $ 100,000 he was now sitting on a $ 10 million shopping center.
Why do I say this? Because it gives me the impression that ETRM is doing the same thing. Putting all approvals in order, in all countries without tarnishing it with any sales and encouraging another to buy it out.
My guess is that the buyer is MEDTRONIC.
I think that 45 days before FDA decision we being RALLY. So by my calculation if FDA decision is expected by September 15th, we can expect rally to begin on August 1 which by the way coincides with earnings date.
Part of the problem is that ETRM sucks big time with marketing. If shorts needed a great partner to drive down the stock they would hire ETRM management. Instead of encouraging they discourage people. How?
a) Before criticial FDA Panel, on a Friday afterhours they announce new ATM for $ 25 million
b) Following approval by FDA Panel, they say nothing and even cancel press conference
c) You declare yourselves bonues and raises while keeping total silence
d) Your secretary does not answer the phone and if you call there is no call back.
e) You put out no vision for the future, playing along as you are totally lost with sales
f) You provide absolutely no explanation for non-sales in Austrialia, Europe and Middle East
g) You leave people in the dark on timetables regarding FDA approval
h) You show 24 month data to a select few at the FDA panel while others have to wait
i) You have insiders sell when stock rallies telling market you have no confidence in a higher price
j) Instead of burning shorts, you sell shares to them so that they can cover comfortably.
That about sums it up, one should ask management how many shares they are short?
Just my honest opinion of course of what I see,
Tell me honestly, see how people quickly get discouraged once price drops every day for 30 or 45 days. Would you prefer this or my pumping as people call it? At least I got under the shorts skin, in this manner the shorts get under the longs skin.
Once FDA approves VBLOC which should be by mid September 2014 (3 months from FDA Panel date), I expect to hear that ETRM will go green light to Austrialia, Europe, Middle East and USA all at the same time.
ETRM has played it safe not wanting any data to interfere with FDA approval. A nice launch in all areas would be a good coordinated effect.
We know that Austrialia is saying there is demand, Middle East doctor said the same thing however he wanted 6 months of testing before going all out. USA will be faster.
A target of 100,000 patients around the world is attainable at $ 10,000 per device or $ 1 billion in sales.
That would translate into $ 3 per share or double today's stock price. At 10x earnings you get $ 30.
Thanks for the link. I read the article on their website. Article is currently dated in June 2014.
I guess management will now begin the process of pushing sales. They had stalled this while awaiting FDA approval. FDA Panel approval is the green light.
As I stated many times previously, who in their freakin mind would have stomach staple surgery if you have VBLOC as a option. I would certainly try VBLOC first due to less invasive procedure and no side effects plus keeping my organs.
Folks, September 15th is around the corner, enjoy your summer vacations and when you come back we should quickly have FDA approval. Once that is done the doors to MONEY opens itself up. Even obtaining a very piece of the obestity market, we trade at $ 30 per share.
What are you waiting for? Time to LOAD UP....
Mankind was FDA Panel approved April 1 and FDA approved June 27th, so less than 3 months.
I would suspect similar timetable so say Monday September 15th, 2014 from June 17th, 2014 FDA Panel date approval.