Try to understand the concept of 100 million obese Americans. That is you target market for VBLOC. Given that pills and stomach staple surgery have done little, the market is open for VBLOC to conquer it all.
We don't need 100 million patients. I will be conservative and say that we take only 1% and over a 10 year period. That means 1 million patients. I further break that down to a ten year period and say 100,000 patients per year.
The device will retail at $ 10,000. With 100,000 patients per year it translates into a $ 1 billion per year in sales for 10 years using my ultra conservative technique.
At the FDA Panel board ETRM had 100 letters from qualified nurses all testifying of the need for VBLOC. Each nurse serves several doctors. Imagine the scope of the doctors willing to use VBLOC. ETRM had no trouble getting nurses on board, it will even be easier with VBLOC when you talk dollars and cents with doctors, more revenues for them, more patients, more follow-up visits hence bigger houses, longer vacations and happier wife.
Now that you have seen where we are going look where we are:
a) ETRM has a $ 110 million market cap (Is that a steal or what)?
b) 9 million shorts need to cover which is about 14% of the float
c) 60% of the shares are in institution hands
d) Selloff of last week will return the same buyers who panic to buy back, first come first serve
e) 15,000 institutions now are given green light to buy ETRM based on favorable Panel vote
f) Articles in seeking alpha and others now turning bullish
g) 3 month rally pending into FDA approval as FDA rarely goes against Panel
h) VBLOC technology got boost in the arm and now is attractive BUYOUT
The pending rally is simply delayed a little. Once people realize that a WIN is a WIN, confidence will return. First in will benefit. Institutions will be buying for the next 6 to 8 weeks, millions of shares.
Let me tell you what happened in RMTI to compare with ETRM. RMTI announced phase II results and there was a question on efficacy, very safe but efficacy an issue. It opened up only a little from the $ 3 range. The shorts and the criminals had tried to crush it, bear raid and so forth just like here. After good results they continued with their trash on efficacy. This only stalled the rally for a few days for the investors to overcome their fears.
Once they did as a PASS is a PASS in any way it comes, stock began to rally, institutions began to enter and I saw that stock climbing every day for 6 weeks hitting new highs. It went from $ 3 to $ 16, a 500% increase.
I see the same thing here. Do not shortchange yourself, do not sell. Those who did sell in the past it is time to load up before institutions walk in the next few days. Afterwards we march higher and higher and higher to the double digit level.
Those buying now are buying a gift with NO MORE RISK and assured APPROVAL into a billion per year market that will belong all to ETRM.
Do not make the mistake of selling too early. It has just begun to rally. Sometimes we want to trade for something else but have a winner in our hands. The institutions 15,000 of them are now open to buy ETRM.
RMTI had same muted response as there was one item in their data with efficacy which cast some doubt so for a few days those who were short kept pointing to this and it caused a little bit of hesitation but soon entered the institutions as a PASS is a PASS and is not a failure. They started bidding up the stock and it went from $ 3 to $ 16 in 6 weeks.
It will happen here too as the troubled shorts will try to push efficacy vote of 4 to 5 but what counts is the overall 6 to 2 vote for APPROVAL. A PASS is a PASS and institutions now have the green light to LOAD UP. Previously it was a gamble now they are assured when it comes to explaining their exposure. They have FDA Panel of experts as backup.
Good. I think price is being held back a bit to let the $ 2.50 June call expire worthless. That is alot of money for the MM to keep as there are 32500 options or 3,250,000 at .30 cents sold or about $ 1 million. They will let it run once this is out of the way.
We can now breathe properly and look forward to FDA approval which is assured.
I saw this type of reaction on RMTI. It had a muted initial reaction almost as if no one heard of approval then, institutions began to walk in and it rallied so hard for 6 weeks from $ 3 to $ 16. The same will be here.
There is a little hesitation from the damage of last week to investor pyschology however once that passes and it does, look out. It is a delayed reaction is all.
Given stock is illiquid and most people to not have access to afterhours movement can be muted but come tomorrow where there are 15,000 mutual funds and institutions whom each want a piece of ETRM plus shorts needing to cover you will see rally for many many days. Doubt is over, greed is in.
Watch as institutions begin to load up. It doesn't happen after hours but starting tomorrow you will start seeing huge buy orders of 50,000 shares to 100,000 shares. Add a handful of institutions each buying a few million shares along with shorts who need to cover and we have a massive rally for many days ahead.
The vote was strong at 6 to 2 with 1 abstention. The safety issue was impeccable at 8 to 1. Efficacy was always an issue as it is new but what counts is overall recommendation and the FDA rarely every goes against Panel decision.
This is a very good decisions and institutions are going to be loading up going into FDA approval. I saw this in RMTI, after the initial pop stock rallied for about 6 weeks from $ 3 to $ 16. It will be the same here.
Do not be foolish to sell early as there are 9 million shorts caught the wrong way. The stock is illiquid so they have to buy and there are no SELLERS.
For what they did to you last week, watch them BURN.....
Thank-you. Had me a little concerned at first as position was large but you have to believe in yourself. Congratulations to you too. Great job zeeman.
Thanks Zeeman for truly taking the time to feed us live with comments. It is almost like following a hockey game. From the tone of the comments since it began, first harsh then slowly toning it down to a realization that there is not much choice out there for obestity and FDA is seriously concerned. The panel have to live in reality too, pills don`t work, bariartic surgery is not for everyone. VBLOC fills a void and it is this void that ETRM is pushing real hard. Yesterday I predicted 8-1 in favor. Given comments earlier on thread that only 2 do not see device as effective I will say 7-2 in favor. A clear vote of confidence for FDA to approve. I am certain the 100 letters and public testimony had an effect. It is nice to hit protocol numbers in a perfect world but we live on earth in an imperfect world where obesity is a MAJOR problem. Anything that helps should be given a chance. I think the 5 year plan to put patients in a data bank for follow-up will soothe any concerns. Future generations of VBLOC can be tweeked in the future to become MRI compatable. CONGRATULATIONS LONGS for your confidence, your patient, your perserverance and endurance. Truly remarkable to be able to help people.
Thank-you for posting, much appreciated. The fact that the panel seems to be fishing for data like does nausea and pain contribute to weight loss. I can understand question if it was a limited period but for 18 months, come on.
A split panel vote is still good news as two negative articles had written stock off completely.
Hopefully common sense will prevail and panel will gives thumbs up. Usually doctors are tough with questions it is their nature but in the end common sense still has to prevail. There is nothing perfect in life.
If it was then panel was not needed.