Lots of money about to come in US markets including ETRM, hang on to new highs:
SYDNEY (Reuters) - The euro was deep under water on Friday having suffered its steepest daily fall in three years after the European Central Bank stunned markets by cutting interest rates and embarking on a trillion-euro asset-buying binge.
The aggressive shift sent short-term bond yields into negative territory in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria, giving investors an overwhelming incentive to sell euros for higher yielding assets elsewhere.
That stood in stark contrast to the United States where upbeat data only reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to wind down its stimulus, driving the dollar higher and sideswiping oil and gold in the process.
Stock prices in Europe climbed to new records in response, though Wall Street succumbed to a bout of jitters ahead of the U.S. payrolls report due later on Friday.
There are 7.5 million shorts that simply can`t get out of their position and it is getting more dangerous day by day as any news from FDA with approval will send them all 7.5 million to cover, with no sellers, so a $ 12 stock price.
If you remove the same hands trading shares today (which is short to short for appearances only) there is 0000 shares sold. The same yesterday with 1.3 million shares sold. The longs have understood and are no longer selling shares or trading around the core.
Oozhee22 has run out of amunition and doesn`t know what else to say. He is Ernest Marmer by name. He bashed ETRM on efficacy starting from last year and has not succeeded. He said FDA would never accept PMA application and it did. He said that FDA would ask for another trial and they didn`t. He said FDA Panel would reject VBLOC and they didn`t. He even wrote an article on seeking alpha, which is more like seeking trash, that FDA panel would reject and again wrong. He was saying pills would dominate and results of VVUS, ARNA have been disappointing. He said OREX would be approved and it was rejected. Hence he has a PERFECT record to date.
Now he calls for FDA to reject VBLOC, which we all know it means APPROVAL.
I suspect approval is imminent between 2 weeks and 6 weeks at most. Better load up cause we are gonna SOAR once approval is in.
Shorts are really starting to get nervous as longs refuse to sell to them, all they do all day is trade back and forth their own shares to try to get longs to sell. It isn't working and there are still 7.5 million shares short, enough to send this stock to $ 12 per share much like DNDN did.
I have noted that both pill companies and bariartic surgeons are terrified of VBLOC. Why is that? VBLOC is new revolutionary obesity solution which will put to shame the pill companies and render bariatric surgery OBSOLETE.
The critical article yesterday was about as st*upid a critic I ever read. Sure bariatric surgery makes you lose weight and is more effective when one removes your internal organs themselves. What a solution, we cut you open and remove your stomach, next it will be your lungs, your heart, your legs. If people are given a choice no one will opt for bariatirc surgery, it is that simple. I would not and neither would you.
This Universe is built on CAUSE and EFFECT. We know that oozhee22 is trying real hard to cast doubt (cause) hoping for a plunge in price (the effect). It ain't working. Now you must ask what is the MOTIVE, just like in police work. No one bashes without a MOTIVE. So it can be a fired employee, a disgruntled investor, a paid basher or, working with institution so they can cover shorts, or just INSANE. The best thing is to do your homework yourself and not listen to me or oozhee22. I ran my numbers and my $ 180 per share target is REASONABLE.
Afterhours trading is 7,000 shares. Now this is REAL BUYING, see how it soars just on one side of trades.
Today's volume of 1.3 million shares was just shorts back and forth, actual volume was probably 0.
I will give my two cents worth analysis.
a) It could be material news in the works to which some are privy.
b) It could indicate possible buyout.
c) It could be pending FDA approval
d) It could be that the shares sold and bought today were just shorts swinging back and forth hoping to spark a selloff as they need to cover and, now that it failed they are covering.
e) It could be pending analyst upgrade.
f) It could be partnership news
g) It could be news of insider buying.
h) It could be oozhee22 who has gone beserk and is buying.
Not yet. I want the price to stabilize a little. I also wanted to re-read what was said in the medical journal.
I understood the motive for criticism after re-reading. The bariatric surgery as I had expected will become OBSOLETE with VBLOC, that is why they were comparing results. No patient in their right mind offered VBLOC will opt for stomach removal, no one.
No, I have not sold any shares, still sitting on six (6) digit figures and contemplating whether I should purchase additional stock as approval is fairly close. Might go with a small order of 40,000 to 50,000 shares.
Today was a bear raid with big money trying to push it down while SMART MONEY is trying to accumulate.
Unfortunately for them with ADEIFLIG has made it very difficult for them to scare people since most realize that the $ 180 stock price is attainable.
Hang on, they need to cover soon enough...
I did a little research to see how many bariartic surgeries one doctor does per year. I went to UMass Memorial Medical Center to obtain some information. In 2012, 4 surgeons did 4,000 operations. That is 1000 patients per doctor. Remember that bariatric surgery is much more complicated than VBLOC so doctors could possible double those numbers.
So simple math: 13 health centers at average 4 doctors per health center at 1000 operations per year gives 52,000 VBLOC procedures just as a starting point. At $ 10,000 per device we are speaking of sales of $ 520 million of which 40% goes to bottom line or $ 200 million. With 200 million shares outstanding you get $ 1 per share in earnings at 30 x earnings is $ 30. Now remember this is just the starting point and I am playing it conservative. Doctors can do more than 1000 procedures per year and, Mayo clinic has alot more than just 4 doctors, they had 4,000 in total with residences too.
Enjoy the read.
UMass Memorial Medical Center offers a variety of programs and evaluation for bariatric (weight loss) surgery, which is known to be the most effective and long-lasting treatment for morbid obesity and many related conditions.
UMass Memorial received the Healthgrades 2012-2013 Bariatric Surgery Excellence Award and in 2012 was ranked #1 in Massachusetts for overall bariatric surgery. Our four surgeons together have more than 30 years of experience and have helped more than 4,000 patients reach their weight-loss goals through safe and effective bariatric surgery.
We know that ETRM will begin marketing their VBLOC in 13 health centers and cost of launch will be limited since infrastructure is in place. Does anyone know the size of the other 12 Health Centers aside from Mayo Clinic.
This is what I got for Mayo Clinic and it is huge:
Staff physicians and scientists: 2,158
Residents, fellows and students: 2,899
Allied health staff (clinic and hospital): 29,166
Tota staffl: 34,223
Question is: How many of these physicians will perform VBLOC surgery?
To get an idea, how many bariatric sugeries do they do a year?
Are the other health centers just as big or close to it. If yes, we are talking of a pool of 20,000 physicans and scientiets, not all for bariatric surgery for sure, but a good number none the less bringing in thousand of patients.
I am getting excited with prospects of success as the more research one does, the more I come to the conclusion that this is by far the stock of the year for 2015 in terms of performance and revenue and, earnings per share.
I am afraid that Medtronic will launch a bid before we can soar to my $ 180 target price...
The $ 10,000 figure comes from the company as I actually called them to inquire. It is a ballpark figure but close enough.
In terms of patients, you project 50,000 patients, which I respect as it is your position. However I disagree as there are presently 300,000 patients per year who have their stomach removed in a barbaric procedure where they have no choice since there is no alternative.
If you were one of those 300,000 people per year and, you are given a choice between removing stomach with drastic changes to your life + serious side effects versus keeping your stomach with no changes to your life style + close to 100% safety, which would you choose?
So as a starting point, we will have 300,000 patients as all of them will switch once word is out.
With the rest, you have to remember that there are 200 million patients and 20 million whom are eligible on day 1. That is a huge market, beyond comprehension. Once word is out on safety you can expect a SURGE in patients, that is why I put figure of 500,000 patients, climbing up to 1 million patients.
Obesity is a SERIOUS problem in the USA and projecting 50,000 is truly mocking those whom have this problem for no one wants to be an elephant on legs if they have a choice especially when 200 million are obese. At 50,000 patients you are speaking of hundreds of years before obesity is controlled. The issue is pressing today and within 10 to 20 years issue needs to become under control. Do you know the tremendous costs insurance companies face with 200 million obese people? They are going to run to cover this procedure as it will bring down significant costs.
I have decided to do an analysis of earnings per share going forward, just as I did with CSIQ, RMTI, DNDN and so many others, where I called a price only to be mocked, only to see it soar past my estimates.
The immediate future of ETRM is in VBLOC for obesity treatment, in the future VBLOC will be tested for diebetic and hyptension markets both huge.
With regards to obesity market, there are 200 million people whom are obese in the USA alone. Of this amount 20 million are severely obese, if nothing is done, they die. On a yearly basis 300,000 people have bariatric surgery to remove their stomach out of possible 20 million due to safety concerns. The 300,000 people per year are not covered by insurance.
It is reasonable to expect the safety record of VBLOC to attract the bulk of the 300,000 patients from bariatric surgery plus adding to this amount as the pool is 20 million to start and most are staying away.
I will keep numbers simple and say that VBLOC will easily hit 500,000 patients per year out of the 20 million available and, with time as procedure is better know to attract 1,000,000 patients per year from the available pool of 200 million people.
The device retails for $ 10,000 and carries a 75% profit margin, bottom line will be 40% once selling expenses are removed.
500,000 patients per year is Revenues of $ 5 billion per year of which 40% goes to bottom line or $ 2 billion. Assuming 200 million shares outstanding you have earnings of $ 10 per share at 18 times earnings you get to $ 180 stock price.
I expect a nice bump next week to the $ 1.60 to $ 1.65 as institutions come back in September during strong obesity period.
I expect approval, latest mid October 2014, so now is the time to LOAD UP...before the spike up.
Expect Ernest Marmer to write a negative article on seeking alpha.
Expect Fuerstein to do the same a few days prior to FDA approval.
Expect it to be perfectly timed as they try to instill doubts: efficacy not met, small sample size, insurance will not cover, management are crooks, dilution, bonus, etc....
You know the drill,
These are the dumest crooks I have seen in a long time.
There is a reason why oozhee22 has come around. He is like the small cockroach that appears once in a few months, once envelops are receivable as retirement does require some liquidty. The fact that he is here is direct confirmation that the same institutions he represents are going to be big buyers, either covering short position or establishing new ones. You can`t buy 5 million shares when no one is selling without first hiring a board clown to entertain people by trying to instill fear.
Those who have been around long enough has seen this movie a few times over.
What this confirms is that we are going to break to new highs and probably hit $ 4 before FDA approval.
Insurance companies are going to love VBLOC as it significantly will bring down health care costs. For a One time payment, these save payments for the rest of the life by having healthy people.