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Magal Security Systems (MAGS) Message Board

adeiflig 639 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: May 2, 1999
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  • Reply to

    TIME TO LOAD UP (2nd chance)

    by adeiflig 5 hours ago

    Of course I read it. That is why I have remained bullish. The fact that Kevin Douglas who is a major shareholder and very successful is investing as I do has given me even more confidence.

    If people want to sell then let it be. When we soar, it will soar for 1 year.

    jmho

  • To all those whom are seeking 2nd chances, now is your time to load up at a ridiculous low market cap valuation, which is after receiving FDA panel approval and almost a shoe in for FDA approval, targeting a huge obese market.

    Wealth is created with time by: LOADING UP and EXPANDING TIME FRAME for sales.

    Market for obesity is $ 144 billion per year. At .005 % penentration it is $ 700 million in sales per year.

    Do not lose focus on sales which will drive this stock to double digits, if not triple digits.

    Those wise buy now,

    jmho

  • So if I use his manner of investing, obesity market is $ 144 billion per year in health care costs.

    20% chance of capturing 20% of the market
    30% chance of capturing 10% of the market
    50% chance of capturing 5% of the market

    So, (.20*28) + (.3*14) + (.7*7.2) = 60 billion possible market valuation

    He discounts to 25%, but lets say I discount to 5% gives $ 3 billion

    So with stock trading at $ 80 million he sees valuation at $ 3 or $ 30 per share per 5% discount, my numbers, per his numbers $ 15 billion or $ 150 stock price.

    This is when he did not sell when he was up 300%, because it was pocket change.

    I agree with him and have come up with similar numbers.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    K. Douglas

    by crew_run 18 hours ago
    adeiflig adeiflig 16 hours ago Flag

    Very good point. He bought at 90 cents; I bought at $ 1.14 and neither sold, so this should tell investors that long term confidence is there. Innsbrook is also heavy into this stock and so are others. Look at market cap, it is a joke at $ 80 million!!! It should be 5 to 10x that at this moment.

    jmho

  • adeiflig adeiflig 16 hours ago Flag

    True they have got out, but guess what? They didn't get out yet. There is close to 7.5 million shorts on ETRM which need to cover. All it takes is one match and guess what, we open at $ 12.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    Market Cap $ 80 Million (pretty ridiculous)

    by adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 3:54 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig 17 hours ago Flag

    I already mentioned that I own a significant chunk of this stock in the six digit figures. I bought in lots but average price is $1.14. I am contemplating adding more now. What I invested is only a portion of what I have. I have made significant returns on other positions.

    The technic for wealth is you find one or two stocks and then you load up with insane levels. When stock soars you make an insane amount of money. This is the only way I have beaten the market and follows down the path of Buffet style of investing, one or two stocks at $ 5 billion each.

    My investment period is not 1 year and I have high tolerance for swings. In case of ETRM over the next 5 years I see this stock soaring to insane levels as sales take off on VBLOC plus other applications to come in the future (ie: diebetic and hypertension). I am not a trader so whether we make a low now has no effect on me. What matters is where it is going to be in the future when sales ramp up and what is the top when market is fully penetrated.

    Trading back and forth a few thousand shares for pocket change brings only stress and nothing more. I never made any money doing trades only when I bet big did I get big.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    Market Cap $ 80 Million (pretty ridiculous)

    by adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 3:54 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig 19 hours ago Flag

    I already put that out there numerous times. I bought in September 2013 at about $ 1.14. I was one of the first to see before a rally ensued which brought the stock to $ 2.60. I should have probably sold at that level being up 128% however I felt that was insufficient reward was looking closer to a 1000% to 1200% return as being reasonable.

    I have not sold any of my position and believe in the future of VBLOC. I find the stock is a steal at these prices and I am thinking of loading up some more.

    I think approval is in the bag and, we should easily open up near the $ 5 level, was hoping closer to $ 12 per share.

    If you look at CSIQ I owned that stock at $ 3.75 when people were throwing it away much like here. 18 months later it is closer to $ 41, an 1100% return, if I had stayed all the way.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    Market Cap $ 80 Million (pretty ridiculous)

    by adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 3:54 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Thanks for advice,

    I don't discourage easily and am keeping my confidence in both my due diligence and in the companies fortunes going forward. You are right that shorts keep pounding on it as greed knows no limits but at one point, it will become too cheap even from a short point of view.

    The analysts have a target of about $ 10 million in sales in 1st year. This means we are trading at multiple of 8 times first year sales. In 5 years these same analysts see sales of $ 300 miillion so at 8X sales you get a $ 2.4 billion company or $ 24 stock price.

    One thing I know is that stocks will trade in anticipation of future earnings so even if we discount $ 24 per share price in 5 years to today, it is worth more than $ 1.19 where we are at now.

    Most I guess are betting on FDA rejection, even though it has never ruled against a FDA Panel meeting.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    Market Cap $ 80 Million (pretty ridiculous)

    by adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 3:54 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    In terms of comparison, OREX trades at close to 8 times ETRM market cap, VVUS is trading at 5 times ETRM market cap and, ARNA is trading at 8 times ETRM market cap.

    To put it in reverse, ETRM trades at 1/8 of OREX market cap, 1/5 of VVUS market cap and, 1/8 of ARNA market cap.

    Yet, ETRM will most probably generate significantly more revenue per year.

    Brains and money do not go along.

    jmho

  • Do people even realize what they are selling or do they just act with their eyes closed. ETRM is carrying a $80 million valuation. Does anyone bother to look at this at all?

    Companies who are going out of business or bankrupt carry higher valuations. I don`t look at the stock price, I look at the market valuation to give me an idea as to what I am buying.

    Where on this market can you buy a company for $ 80 million, so close to approval and that will generate significant revenues going forward. We are trading at 1/5 of 1 time sales.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    FDA Approves 1st Medical Device in 10 years

    by adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 8:46 AM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 18, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Can you explain why you do not like these types of postings where I speculate on the future. Give me a concrete reason as I don't understand your concern. I said it was a future headline of what I saw.

    jmho

  • Now that FDA has said that interest rates will remain on the floor for a very long time, you can expect those who were expecting crash to flock back into stocks, some of it will find money here. VVUS soaring today which should give ETRM a little lift as all these stocks trade together in a basket type (ie: obesity investors)

    jmho

  • This is what future headline will look like:

    FDA approves first medical device in 10 years to treat obesity. The device VBLOC made by ETRM results in 24% EWL and is maintained at 3 years. This is a significant competitor to pills which have disappointed of late as doctors refuse to prescribe pills due to side effects. VBLOC will be launched through 13 health centers of which Mayo clinic is the biggest and the corporation has stated there is a waiting line for their product. As a side benefit VLBOC provides benefits for people suffering from diebetic and hypertension, two deadly diseases. ETRM is SOARING on the news up 300% to $ 4.75 on volume of 43 million shares.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    6 month chart, DOW up +6%, ETRM down -49%

    by sillyoldqueen Sep 17, 2014 6:47 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 17, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    Hi oozhee22, nice to have you back. Given that you identity is blown with penny_dreaddful to oozhee22 to sillyoldqueen to your real name ERNEST MARMER, why not cut the garbage and come out clean. I guess if you are here we should be happy as it means TIME TO LOAD UP.

    You are correct that ETRM has been a dog of late and I won't even defend it. However we can do same analysis next year and, Dow may be down -5% and ETRM +500%.

    Have your fun poking at people, Your days are numbered.

    jmho

  • adeiflig adeiflig Sep 16, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    I would tend to agree with you. I will explain why.

    The device itself will cost at most $ 10,000, there is a 75% margin on it and, there is no infrastructure. The rest of the cost of $ 5,000 to $ 10,000 is for the 30 minute surgery and out the same day. It reasons that there are some FAT people who do have FAT incomes so not to introduce does not make any sense since margins are high and cost of introduction is very low. The cost involved is to educate the surgeons on proper procedure. The doctor, hospital staff, hospital building, materials, clients and so forth are already there.

    So what is the motive for not introducing and getting sales? I would reason that ETRM probably thinks it is better to defer sales and be a more attractive buyout candidate than go at it themselves and risk everything on the line before even getting FDA approval.

    Knudson is 66 years old. Do you honestly think he wants to run around at his age selling this device?

    Given that he does have a track record of working in an industry where he saw thousands of companies fill a need and then attract buyers, it reasons that he will do the same here. Old dogs will have old habits. He did in the past sell a company.

    Given that Medtronic is a short drive away, that he does have Medtronic staff on payroll, it would reason that he is simply preparing the company for Medtronic buyout once approval is in. Medtronic would be foolish not to buy a device, the only one to be approved in 10 years, which a huge profit margins where they have easy entry into the market. The purchase price they pay will refund itself within a year or two.

    Queston is: Are the investors of ETRM patient enough to see this through?

    jmho

  • Down, down, down, down, down, down,Down, down, down, down, down, down,Down, down, down, down, Down, down, down, down, down, down,

    ===================================================================================

    At least we can say we have fair market which ensures equilibrium of buyers to sellers, so trend for next 6 months

    ====================================================================================
    Down, down, down, down, down, down,

  • I owned AVNR, had my whole family bought at $ 3.50 range, we eventually sold as it lagged a bit; today I look it is close to $ 12.

    Goes to confirm, stick to your guns when you believe in something and the market is off.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    recalibrated PPS post approval

    by tiktokstock Sep 16, 2014 1:15 AM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 16, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    You made it so far, wait a few more weeks, and once approval is in, it will be a steady upward rise. Even if you sell on first pop, it will keep going up for months as institutions load up.

    Have coincidence, pray too as this helps.

    jmho

  • Boy if this is the way some men treat women, in the same manner as ETRM once in a blue moon up strong only to sag down for months on in, then I recommend it use VIAGRA. It makes happier women and, of course happier investors.

    If I had to draw the performance of ETRM is would resemble an unperforming "p8enis".

    Note: I had a dream where I saw in the newspapers huge words ETRM, 5 pages of news, where it mentions 1st device in 10 years to be approved for obesity and it is revolutionary. Big change in way to tackle obesity article said by taping in on vagus nerve, to rewire body.

    jmho

  • Reply to

    Obesity pills getting CRUSHED (Karma!!!!)

    by adeiflig Sep 15, 2014 1:06 PM
    adeiflig adeiflig Sep 15, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Why? Because you own OREX, ARNA and VVUS, having a vested interest following the oozhee22 line of thinking, not wanting to see pills get trashed.

    Pills are out the window, there is no market for them, doctors won`t prescribe them since patients have a host of other medical issues and, pills are not for healthy people who are fit.

    So who is left, 0-0 = 0

    Notice how your friend oozhee22 took off with his head between his tails, how he vented of OREX being so great, it just turned out to be trash.

    Sell your OREX, ARNA and VVUS position and load up on ETRM before it RALLIES hard or, listen to oozhee22 he has been great so far.

    jmho

MAGS
4.37-0.25(-5.41%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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