In June 2014 I was going to buy EDAP had ETRM reacted properly by which I mean had it surged which it did not. I would have used additional profit for EDAP investment. EDAP was trading around $ 3.20 around low valuations like ETRM around $ 120 million for a company with a prostate FDA date of July 31st. Notice that since June 15th, stock took off of EDAP and got close to $ 6 per share, a double and not even FDA approval yet.
I say this because it does appear that investors in biotech are momemtum type of investors. They had let EDAP drag on the floor for 6 months at $ 100 million valuation and then 6 weeks prior to vote it doubles with no trouble at all.
I believe ETRM will do the same once we can have an idea of FDA date. Say it is Sept 30th, then following EDAP example one needs to load up by August 15th.
It is quiet period so those with brains are buying but the followers or momemtum guys who truly pay market prices will only come once date is available and close. At that time I predict price might easily hit the $ 5 range without even trying and before FDA date and, you will be asking what happened all of a sudden.
There is nice accumulation as the base in set in the mid to low $ 1.50 level and the highs to the $ 1.60 level. As you can see we are going sideways and it is an accumulation phase.
The catalyst which will start the next run, and there will be a NEXT is the 24 month data which is extremely bullish. In the past ETRM would first show the data to FDA and upon their approval they would release it to the public. The 24 month data was shown to the FDA Panel on June 17th and it was bullish however FDA has not yet consulted it.
Assuming that ETRM filed this data with FDA by June 30th, which was after their celebration for obtaining panel approval, one can expect that FDA will look at these numbers within a 45 day period, say by August 15th before giving go ahead to release to the public.
If this date is say August 15th or close to it, we should be getting the data. Once numbers are known and which are strong, I expect spike in price as we begin RALLY into FDA approval process. Approval could either be late September or mid October 2014, hence a rally which begins August 15 could reasonably be expected as we walk into new highs and price in the possibility of a buyout.
I am glad you noticed it. A total of 10 firms own 50% that is incredible concentration in just a few hands. They probably talk to each other since positions are so big.
Stock is already illiquid, now that you know 50% is in 10 hands and 20% is short needing to buy, there is only 30% of shares left, say 1/2 of this is in strong hands that means there is nothing left for institutions. That is why games are played and why we will rally hard.
Go to cnbc type in ETRM and look under ownership, add both top institutional owners and mutual fund owners you will see huge concentration in just 10 hands.
Interesting!!!! I included the mutual funds which are both insitutions and mutual funds. The numbers are mindbogling....only 10 firms or insitutions own 50% of ETRM stock, add to this 20% which are short and you have 70% of the float which is locked up....
Matter of time before we EXPLODE.....with only 30% of shares in circulation, it won`t take much. The 24 month data will ignite the flames, to be released I say by earnings report on July 28th, 2014.
I agree. DNDN did it from $ 3.75 to $ 22 open, I saw CSIQ from $ 3 to $ 45, RMTI from $ 3 to $ 16 and so forth.
The extremely large concentration of shares in just a few hands, 40% in 10 hands + 20% shorts which means another big bunch of buyers, is setting itself for an explosive run up. I think institutions will keep load up and would not be surprised to see them owning somewhere in 70% range and up. A few more big buyers of 5 to 7 million shares and they will have cornered the market on ETRM.
The shorts are dreaming if they think they will get out of this one without getting tremendously hurt. Signs are there, better to start covering as 24 month data is around the corner.
That will be the spark that starts a new rally to new highs. If I were short I would cover before horse begins to run especially since 40% of shares are in just 10 hands and they are cornering the stock for what I see is assured BUYOUT from Medtronic.
Connecting dots is making an assumption that is not there in facts. The FACT is 10 persons or individuals own 40% of ETRM shares and another 20% are on the hook being short so ready buyers. It won't take much for stock to explode with such a huge concentration of shares in just a few hands. It is what we call cornering the market. Stock is already illiquid, add that now 60% is in strong hands and you don't have much shares left for new buyers. Any news or article or surge in buying will send us quickly up.
Incredible that a total of 10 persons or firms own 40% of ETRM. Add to this the 20% which are shorts as one BIG BUYER on the side lines and I think we will have fireworks soon enough.
The 10 persons or firms wouldn't b speaking to each other like on a Friday night buyout dinner discussions, hahaha.....they must know something, concentration of shares is in very tight hands.
It would be a nice payoff for them....
The share price will be determined by the earnings per share. The market is wide open for VBLOC to be offered to patients around the world. ETRM does not have to make any capital expenditure since infrastructure in terms of doctors, clinics and hospitals are there. Also the device retails for $ 10,000 meaning manufacturing will be contracted out for now.
The only thing which ETRM needs is a terrific sales force which can promote VBLOC as an alternative choice in the obesity market. Once one doctor is on board, it is the doctor whom will recommend the device to hundreds of patients.
With a sales force of 30 people, they can easily hit 500 to 700 hospitals in one year and close to as many doctors if not more.
The market numbers for the obesity market 100 million obese Amercians of which 20 million are truly obese and urgently need the device to avoid a host of other problems.
A target of just 100,000 patients per year is $ 1 billion in Sales.
A target of 100,000 patients is 1% of the eligible patients. Even getting 1/2 of 1% you are speaking of 50,000 patients and $ 500 million in revenue.
It won't be that hard to sell VBLOC especially when obese patients have no other choice but die if they do nothing.
Now we know where the sellers are coming from. If ETRM ever gets its act in order where they start publishing some bullish news I would expect strong rally as shorts run to cover. I don't know what they see to short this stock, my guess is they bet and got it wrong and now put more money hoping FDA rejects VBLOC, which it will not.
I raise my target forcast from $ 10 to $ 30 based on the following:
a) Inability of diet pills to treat obesity issue in USA
b) Obosolence of stomach staple surgery
The market is wide open to ETRM with not one competitor in sight.
Launch of VBLCO will be done in Quarter ending in December 2014, approval of device will be in the week of September 15 to September 19
The launch will be done in the countries of USA, Austrialia, Middle East and Europe.
The infrastructure is in place with doctors and clinics. ETRM needs a well train staff of sales people perhaps 30 at most.
Sales target to hit between $ 1 billion and $ 3 billion per year.
Patients treated will be between 100,000 and 300,000 patients.
Price of device will be $ 10,000 and, is to be covered by insurance for a slight premium increase.
Earnings per share will range from $ 3 per share (base) to a high of $ 12 per share.
This is the adelfig report for those interested.
just my honest opinion
If we had investors whom believed in their investments we would have been over $ 10 by now but we live with the reality that most of the holders of this stock are your ordinary farmers with grade 3 education and have no guts to hold.
You honestly believe ETRM is fairly valued at $ 98 million?
I don`t know what competitors like Medtronic are waiting for, I would launch bid at $ 6 per share, nice premium for them, cheap acquistion for Medtronic and huge potential to bring in lots of money if properly marketed around the world.
Just read off the press wires and also on this board that ARNA CEO just sold 40% of his holdings all in one shot and, on a declining price hitting new lows. This is a sign that pills are flopping, following VVUS track record and delay in approval in OREX pills.
FDA is putting a hold on pills, it looks like. It don`t sell.
MARKET is now WIDE OPEN for ETRM....no competition at all. Knudson pretty smart, has built up the VBLOC licenses which will represent significant patent value as bidding war develops for ETRM.
ARNA and VVUS may also make a bid for ETRM.
Lots of interest here....
If Baker brothers is indeed loading up we will be over $ 5 in no time. Perhaps crew run dream is true.
Not nice. We are at the bottom of the 2nd inning and you have already thrown in the towel. Wait ntil the 9th inning before pronouncing judgement.
To all the hypocrites you say I am pumping, do me favor, when price does go double digits, make sure you give the additional profit you called pumping to charity. Put your words where your mouth is.
Can you post a link to what this someone said? I looked at Baker Bros, $ 6 billion in assets and as of March 31, 2014 I see no ETRM. Perhaps June 30, 2014 report when it is out. They specialize in buyout positions I think.