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Central European Distribution Corp. Message Board

adjag7 214 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 21, 2014 1:57 PM Member since: May 27, 2003
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  • For those of you who haven't been burned by these scams before, the reason why there was a $44.1 million "private placement" for preferred stock is because the common stock is soon going to become worthless. If you don't believe me, look up the history of Central European Distribution Corporation (formerly CEDC). I personally lost $30k due to a similar scam that played out.

    I have no position in DLIA and thought it had significant potential when Tracy Gardner came on board. Unfortunately, DLIA has been playing these games ever since her arrival and the management simply cannot be trusted.

    Mark my words... DLIA will be taken into bankruptcy, the bondholders & preferred stockholders will reorganize under Chapter 11, DLIA will come out with an IPO in 2-3 years after bankruptcy restructuring with no debt and a more solid balance sheet, and common stockholders will be wiped out.

    Good luck to all...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Hold on... we are on our way. Once we get to $.70, then we will be at a point where some real investors with long-term horizons can actually invest in this stock.

    In the interim, I hope that none of you were dumb enough to buy recently. This POS and their management still have a LONG way to go.

  • Wow... I've been following this stock since the beginning of August and thought that I missed out on the buying opportunity here. Thanks to the U.S. Government, I can now get in at a cheaper price that I ever imagined. That being said, I'm only starting a small position here.

    Bottom line... U.S. default is coming and I'm 90% cash right now (very conservative position for someone in early 30s). That being said, there is absolutely no change in ACRX fundamentals or business model to warrant the 25% drop that we've seen in a few short days. Given the market's tendency to overreact on both sides, I don't think we're done going down yet (I see support at $8.50 and then around $6.50). I don't think we see $6.50, but $8.50 is a certainty at this point.

    Goal - 5,000 share position long

    1. Order to buy 500 ACRX @ 8.65
    2. Order to buy 500 ACRX @ 8.40
    3. Will buy 2,000 ACRX @ $8.20
    4. Will buy 3,000 ACRX @ $7.73 (200 Day MA)

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Fall cleaning is all

    by d442125 Sep 13, 2013 5:24 PM
    adjag7 adjag7 Sep 16, 2013 12:02 PM Flag

    Rather than doing a "private placement", they could have done a stock offering to allow all current and potential shareholders an opportunity to buy DLIA rather than manipulate the stock price (see runup from ~$1.05 to $1.83) and then conduct an "inside job" to do the private placement.

    Bottom line... if you look at my previous posts, you will see that I invested in DLIA a long time ago and have been following the stock since may when the Gardner announcement was made. I had planned on buying in with a larger purchase ($600k) but then watched as DLIA stock was manipulated up... and then down.

    As I said in my previous post, anyone buying DLIA right now is a fool. If you want to get in, wait until $.70/share, which is where DLIA is headed in light of the dilution, poor management performance, and lack of transparency.

  • With today's deal, Tencent & Baidu will fight for search superiority in China and QIHU will get the scraps. So much for QIHU momentum.

    Why didn't QIHU management just pay the money??? Stupid, stupid, move.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Fall cleaning is all

    by d442125 Sep 13, 2013 5:24 PM
    adjag7 adjag7 Sep 15, 2013 8:57 AM Flag

    Why don't you save yourself some money by selling now and buying back when DLIA hits $.70??? If you don't believe it will happen, just watch.

    I'm not saying that DLIA is a bad company or that the current management team is bad. All I'm saying is that they have been less than transparent in their actions and they are being punished by the street. As a result, this will not turn around until DLIA management "shows us the money" by generating substantial results.

    If you know the Wall Street game, I guarantee you that DLIA will tank at least 1 more quarter (i.e. to allow the insiders to load up) before this thing takes off (if it takes off). Therefore, why hold the bag?

    Good luck dude.

  • Well, after watching IBN fall off a cliff the past few months, I decided to buy this morning (albeit I missed a better entry point a few days ago). In order to insure my position, I went in with the following:

    IBN - Purchased 500 shares @ $30.30
    IBN - Purchased 5 Sept 2013 PUT Options with a strike price of $30 at $.90/contract (for downside protection).

    While I would have liked a lower entry point, I reviewed IBN's earnings report again and their financials are rock solid. In my view, this is a classic market overreaction to a sound financial services firm that happens to be one of the largest in India. Of course, it is silly to invest in anything these days without some protection, which is why I got the puts as well.

    If your time horizon is more than 1 week and you're willing to hold IBN over the intermediate, medium, and/or long term, this is a great buying opportunity. However, if you're day-trading, then please ignore my post since it won't make any sense to you.

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • adjag7 adjag7 Aug 28, 2013 10:58 AM Flag

    Bronxjoe1,

    Look... as a former DLIA investor (I'm one of the few who actually made money on DLIA almost a decade ago now), I really would like to see the DLIA turnaround be successful. That being said, there are some questionable things that this new management team has done, including the manner in which they conducted the stock offering. Additionally, this last earnings report was absolutely horrendous, legacy inventory or not. In fact, if you do the math, DLIA would be better off by completely writing off the legacy inventory (i.e. throw it all away) and start fresh. Combined with the fact that there is at least 1 more quarter of this #$%$, there is absolutely no reason to invest in DLIA right now.

    Look at my previous posts. Wait for DLIA to drop into the $.70 - $.80 range and start buying there for a long term hold. In fact, if it gets there, I will join you. Ultimately, I don't want to see longs on this board lose another 30-40% on their investment in the short term.

    Good luck to all.

  • Wow! I've seen some BAD earnings reports, but the stinker that DLIA management just put up is very bad. If I was long, I would watch out now. Looks like management is trying to tank the company so that they can reorganize it under bankruptcy protection, which means that common shareholders will be wiped out.

    Good luck with this one...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Wow! Now, I get it!

    1) Some DLIA insider manipulates and artifically inflates stock price with ~1.5 million share purchase (~$2 million) to jack up price from ~$1 -- $1.30 -- $1.70.

    2) DLIA management covers their #$%$" by issuing a "performance update" and making it clear that there is no material improvement in performance due to the need to work through inventory.

    3) DLIA announces stock offering.

    You know, this is what is wrong with the stock market and companies like DLIA these days. If Management was simply honest and forthcoming, then I (and many others) would have happily invested in DLIA and brought in more money than any secondary. Unfortunately, this crooked company is just like the rest of them, as "insiders" and others "in the know" act illegally on information that is not available to the public and the "little guy."

    To the idiot who jacked up the price the other day, I am going to try to short the #$%$ out of this tomorrow. Let's see who has more $$$... good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Well, I want to congratulate those (unlike me) who did buy into DLIA. Obviously, there are some insiders (or "illegitimate investors") who are taking this company for a ride. I've poured through the financial statements and, once again, reviewed the management guidance from... a few days ago that indicated that DLIA still expects to see poor results until they work through existing inventory.

    Neither today's ~20% run-up nor the double since I started watching DLIA in May makes any sense. If it pulls back, then I may get in. However, I cannot tolerate the pure manipulation that we saw today (zero-sum game).

    Good luck to all. If anyone actually has a real clue as to what is really happening at DLIA and why the stock has run-up on bad news, I'd certainly like to hear it. I'm sure others would as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Interesting run-up in DLIA

    by adjag7 Jul 8, 2013 10:59 AM
    adjag7 adjag7 Jul 8, 2013 4:30 PM Flag

    Question... how much do you think Gardner was involved with J. Crew's success compared to Mickey Drexler? Obviously, Tracy was a part of the team and her credentials are great. However, I don't think she turned J. Crew around all by herself.

  • Reply to

    Interesting run-up in DLIA

    by adjag7 Jul 8, 2013 10:59 AM
    adjag7 adjag7 Jul 8, 2013 4:29 PM Flag

    Interesting comment. However, I don't think Gardner will "settle" for a private equity buyout at $3.00. I was reading an article earlier today on how she left J.Crew to "spend more time with her kids." That lasted all of 1 1/2 years before she came on to DLIA. I don't think she would have made the sacrifice again unless she wanted to "hit it out of the park" with DLIA.

    As of right now (with her 750,000 shares), she is making a cool $750k for every $1 that DLIA climbs. If she successfully turns it around, then $5-$10/share is not out of the question. Therefore, why would she settle for $3?

    If only the DLIA financials looked better, I'd jump in and load up as well. However, I was just burned by a company that had better financials (more assets) than DLIA that declared bk due to significant debt and insufficient cash flow. This shouldn't be trading the way it has the past few days, so someone knows more than I do...

  • I'm still on the sidelines and watching, but I am trying to figure out why DLIA has run-up from $.90 to $1.30 on no news. Any ideas?

  • Reply to

    DLIA results & financial statements

    by adjag7 May 30, 2013 5:31 PM
    adjag7 adjag7 Jun 6, 2013 11:48 AM Flag

    I agree entirely. I also believe that Tracy has the ability and the potential to turn DLIA around. That being said, she needs time and she needs money.

    While I'm sure that everyone will be patient with Tracy (quite frankly, DLIA is lucky to have her). However, where is the money going to come from? That is the big uncertainty here. If the money was available to complete the turnaround, then DLIA is worth closer to $2 right now and could reach 5-10 over the long term. However, without the funds and resources, bankruptcy is on the table.

    Ultimately, I would really like to invest in DLIA because there is the potential for a real turnaround here. Unfortunately, I simply can't justify it based on the current condition of the company. I'll continue to watch from the sidelines until we get some more information from management and improving financial numbers.

  • Well, DLIA managed to sell the Alloy subsidiary for $3.7 million in cash + $3.1 million in liabilities. This total value is a little more than 50% of the reduction in DLIA's available cash over the past 12 months. While I'm not sure if DLIA management could have expected to receive more for a unit that they openly wanted to divest, $3.7 million confirms that DLIA will have to go back to the market at some point to obtain additional funds in an effort to achieve a turnaround.

    Combining DLIA's precarious cash position with the market (many of the retail apparel co have issued disappointing earnings), I still think we go down from here. I will wait for $.70/share.

    Good luck to all.

  • Hi all,

    Well, I finally had a chance to look at DLIA's financials and they look ugly... much uglier than I thought they would. Obviously, the formal appointment of Tracy Gardner as CEO was no surprise to anyone who has been around DLIA or has researched the company. As a result, Tracy's announcement was considered a non-event.

    Back to the financials, though. With no clear indication on potential buyers of Alloy, a dwindling balance of cash & cash equivalents (down from $12 million to $3.6 million... really?), the $1.5 million bank loan on the books, and eroding shareholder equity, I can't justify buying DLIA here. While I believe that Tracy can turn DLIA around over the long term, she can't do it by herself and without resources. Unless she gets some private investment, I don't see how DLIA avoids bankruptcy.

    I will continue to watch DLIA and may take a small risk if it heads to the $.65 - $.70 range (where I think it is headed). However, I can't in good conscience buy here nor would I recommend anyone else do so for that matter. Of course, my opinion would change completely if DLIA receives a cash infusion (I think they need $25-$30 million in order to give Tracy the resources that she needs to turn this around).

    Good luck to all...

  • Hi,

    I invested in DLIA years ago and just started to look at it again as my daughter is now old enough that she is gaining interest in Delia's. I was impressed to see Tracy Gardner jump over and I always invest with strong management teams. That being said, I don't know if DLIA has the cash to allow Tracy to turn things around without some external investment.

    Does anyone here know anything about DLIA cash flow, cash on hand, and external investors? It looks like all of the information I was able to find is dated. As it looks like the call is on 5/30, I may wait until then to buy in... if I can get a clearer picture on the financials.

    Good luck to all.

  • I've been riding SOHU up and down since 2005 and I must say that this most recent ride up has been the most fascinating. While I didn't get in at the bottom (I bought 1,000 at 41.25), I must say that I'm getting a little altitude sickness here and have decided to sell and take my $25k profit.

    I'm sure that I'll buy SOHU again in the future, but it needs to come back down into the low 50s again so that it can build a more solid base for long term appreciation.

    Good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Ye Yaw..... The MUD slinging continues

    by harboursnug Nov 27, 2012 2:48 PM
    adjag7 adjag7 Nov 27, 2012 3:13 PM Flag

    Actually, this is the most intelligent thing I have seen so far. Rather than continue writing dastardly and derogatory letters, Mark Kauffman has simply stated that the points mentioned by the CEDC Board of Directors and Special Committee are inaccurate BUT HE IS NO LONGER GOING TO RESPOND WITH LETTERS!!! Additionally, Kauffman has again urged the CEDC Board of Directors to call a special meeting with shareholders to discuss CEDC's current state.

    If only Roustam Tariko, Russian Standard, and CEDC kept this "letter-writing" campaign behind closed doors, the CEDC stock price would be closer to $3.00 than $2.00.

    This is the "calm before the storm". Let's see what happens next.