Use of the work "compelling" is interesting because a dividend is compelling based on its yield. A stock with a $50 value with a 2.00 dividend (or less than currently paid) is compelling also (4% yield) or a $40 stock with a 2.00 dividend (5%) is even more compelling. Note the statement does not appear to commit to maintain the current dividend.
Where as the part of the statement on achieving cash flow neutrality is more black and white.
The valuations are crazy for the next 2 years even if one assumes they will meet 2.99 in 2016 which looks unlikely with the trend. Something will break eventually in terms of price of oil or the stock.
I am surprised COP has held up so well (relatively speaking). We will see how long it lasts as the oil price falls further. As a pure upstream, earnings for COP don't have much support (2-3% production growth and cost cutting) unlike the big integrated companies which can offset with their downstream operations
The dividend only goes so far.
Follow the weekly oil inventory reports (API and EIA), when those start to drop or the Saudi's change their mind on their production, we will see a change in trend. For now the trend is clearly down. Not to say there won't be a few bumps along the way (i.e the last 3-4 days).
Oil production experts don't expect inventories to start dropping for 3 + months.
That's nonsense, as soon as oil pops up above 80-90/bbl for a few months all the shale oil production comes back. Its the new swing production pending growth demand (which ain't happening for at least a few year)s.
Get used to