We have a reported 3.7% real GDP with falling S&P 500 profits and revenues in the 2nd quarter (Factset and Zacks). Does not make sense and you cannot blame that on inventory build when most of the US economy is services..
Sounds like China "funny" data.
I am waiting to start until about 35/bbl. I don't see anything fundamentally changing on supply/demand until the December OPEC meeting at the earliest. Seems we should see another bounce soon and then a final leg down.
According to the most recent reports I have seen (1-2 months ago) they 550-600 billions left in cash reserves (USD). At their burn rate of the last year, that will last 2+ years.
Crude in the 30s this winter looking more imminent barring a war or hurricane disrupting supplies.
The Saudis and others cannot survive (it's an "expensive kingdom" to maintain) either until 2019 at these prices, they will back off a lot sooner than that. I think they have already burned through 25%+ of their reserves in the past 9-10 months. So they probably can keep it up another year (mid-2016) and at that point pretty much all the small US shale drillers will be bankrupt or bought out and Russia will be on its knees (falling production) due to no capital. That's was likely their plan from the start. They re-establish/increase their market share and prices rise.
Looks like the only roadblock now for the Iran deal is the Senate. With international support the pressure will for the agreement to go forward.
barring a war or hurricane to change the production, lows still to come. Any bounces will be short-lived.
See today's IEA report and projection for the next 12 months.
Demand will be peaking soon (refinery production) and global oil supply continues to grow.
Setting up for an ugly 2nd half for oil prices with a bottom in December. Barring an unforeseen break in supply (war or major hurricane) in the meantime.
and think about this, if mideast oil production (and drilling- see the weekly BHI data) is rising to a record level, the US is still producing at a record level and Iran is still pumping (and they are see production data) and they are under an embargo where is it all going?
If you look at the details Canada added 18 rigs (15 oil and 3 gas) so, there was net increase of 11 rigs (18-7 for the US ) in this week's report for North America.
First one of those in a while. Appears to be completely ignored by the media..