Demand will be peaking soon (refinery production) and global oil supply continues to grow.
Setting up for an ugly 2nd half for oil prices with a bottom in December. Barring an unforeseen break in supply (war or major hurricane) in the meantime.
and think about this, if mideast oil production (and drilling- see the weekly BHI data) is rising to a record level, the US is still producing at a record level and Iran is still pumping (and they are see production data) and they are under an embargo where is it all going?
If you look at the details Canada added 18 rigs (15 oil and 3 gas) so, there was net increase of 11 rigs (18-7 for the US ) in this week's report for North America.
First one of those in a while. Appears to be completely ignored by the media..
Something has got to change if they are going to meet their stated goal and #1 priority and that's assuming the price targets for crude are met. Looks like they have little if any margin for error with the stated spending plans.
See today's Barron's article.
Nobody is talking about the filing today by COP for the new debt?
See Morningstar for the details on the Fitch analysis and Edgar for the filing details.
The proposal got a A rating and a "negative outlook" from Fitch.
I see nobody talking about it (maybe I missed it) but has anyone else noted the falling railcar traffic the past few months and this week (report released today) shows it went negative yoy for the first time in a long time!
This is one economic parameter Mr. Buffet follows closely.
Based on what they have stated on the past 2 conference calls "cash neutrality" by 2017 is #1 priority but a "compelling dividend" is 2nd priority. It will be interesting to see what the cash flow situation is next quarter. Hate to see them tap their credit line to pay a dividend.
They will pay a dividend question is how much? If their intent is to continue the level it is surprising they are holding on the announcement.
Its all reduction in imports (-950,000 bbls/day), look at the details, US production was down a whopping 4,000 barrels/day. Could very well bounce back next week if imports go back up.
Wonder where all the excess OPEC production (I read 2 MM bbl/day plus is going)?