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China Housing and Land Development, Inc. Message Board

advisorcfa 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2015 5:12 PM Member since: Sep 27, 2011
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  • advisorcfa advisorcfa Apr 28, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    Well, I'm not sure if you are "agreeing" to what I actually said. There simply "is no cash available" for a dividend or buyback. It's not that they have better things to do with cash - they have already spent all of their available cash [practically speaking].

    What is particularly concerning, as you incompletely pointed out, is that the major thrust of SPU's "expansion strategy" and the primary use of what was formerly a cash hoard, is in "the kiwi business". However, Kiwi revenues in 2014 sank 24% on an absolute basis, and on a relative basis, it fell from about 12% to only 8% of revenues. So, it seems a complete waste of capital to be "building out capacity" for a business segment where their sales are tanking and they have admitted they have difficulty sourcing raw fruit (specifically kiwi).

    Seems pretty fishy.

    And, your assertion that they "are profitable" is suspect when you consider that their A/R exploded in 2014 yet they barely took a reserve against doubtful accounts. Remember ADY, FEED, YUII or any number of other Chinese stocks with phony A/R or undisclosed discounts, or undisclosed product return risk?

    SPU is very cash flow negative. "Profitability" will not be known for some time until A/R is converted to cash and not converted into some boondoggle with $249,000 per acre land use fees and multi million consulting fees. Farm land in California's Central Valley is less than $50,000 per acre.

    We'll see...maybe.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • advisorcfa advisorcfa Apr 27, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Withholding comment on this company's prospects, management (in)competence, or this stock's prospects, the opportunity to start paying dividends or to launch a share buyback has passed.
    The bulk of their "available" cash has either already been spent on their "expansion projects" or will need to be spent to complete them.
    The opportunity was prior to committing the $70million+ to these projects. The (only) hope now is that these projects deliver significantly increased revenues at significantly increased net margins. Such a prospect is far from a certainty given this company's track record.
    A takeover by a Western company is unlikely imo.

    Sentiment: Hold

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