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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

ae_savant 1180 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 11:46 PM Member since: Jan 14, 2000
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  • BRG is making me want to kick my own #$%$ since I didn't buy it late August. Instead I bought stupid HHY and held my PSEC and FSC when I should have sold during that month and loaded up on BRG.

    I pick BRG cause I happen to like trading dividend equities more than non-divy ones. I just like the idea of being paid to hold, should it come to that. But sometimes I just am to frickin' slow acting on the sale of those that reach premium prices and don't have the cash I want to jump into a more promising one that has been beaten down and has value written all over it.

    What have you done stupidly lately?

  • Reply to

    A totally FLAT market and the IPO of BABA

    by thewisejman Sep 8, 2014 1:10 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Sep 8, 2014 11:40 PM Flag

    As a contrarian perspective, I would maintain the market should be doing better than it has. Compare the economy today with what it was anytime in the last 5 years and we shouldn't be as herky-jerky as we are.

    The big driver right now that causes volatility is foreign policy and namely, the empty suit in the White House. Under ordinary circumstances where there was confidence in US leadership and the much better economy we have today compared to last 5 years, we should be enjoying a 2013 rate of return.

  • Reply to

    J-man and others........thoughts on HHY...?

    by keltus1952 Sep 8, 2014 2:25 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Sep 8, 2014 11:34 PM Flag

    Picked up 1K shares at about $10 and am down maybe 1% which should be made up in a couple dividends. Got into it because it was mentioned here, needed a CEF as I don't have any, was also at a discount to NAV, found the distribution to be attractive, wanted to add to bond funds as with Europe easing (German 10 yrs now fetching 90 BPs), I don't see the Fed raising rates so long as Europe is lowering them.

    But am not charmed by HHY and think I will just get back to even and sell. For me it is simply a hold as I expected it to respond better to the macro changes than it has.

  • Reply to

    Your winners today?

    by frigator Sep 2, 2014 4:37 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Sep 2, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    OMG - and each day you seem to post another doomsday prediction about the end of the market. Do you even read your own posts about the market should have corrected 447% in the last 3 months?!

    Seriously J, who bothers anymore to keep track of what you believe about the market's macro movement?

  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    Agree. And hi to you blair.

  • Reply to

    Slick not buying? Why?

    by thewisejman Aug 26, 2014 3:29 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    Agree. I'm always been long PSEC but from a trading perspective, the slate has been wiped clean. Today was what I call an 'encumbered' trading day. If you bought today you also should have sold. Tomorrow is an open market day and a test of who has more confidence - longs or shorts.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on $10.38 low of the day................

    by xx369 Aug 26, 2014 7:14 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    Yes, I understand that happened and the 10.50 mark as well as 10.56 (NAV) serve as support. We are at 10.56 now.

    Short positions sold off today in anticipation of the x-div date (tomorrow) and tomorrow may well draw in more buyers after the price is adjusted - to 10.45, below the 10.50 line.

    Tomorrow is a new day for shorts who don't have to worry about the 11 cent xdiv monkey. And, the PPS will open below 10.50.

    It will be a new day unencumbered by the looming xdiv and it will start below technical support. It will be interesting to see if it draws buyers or if more longs fold.

  • Reply to

    Bought more mcc

    by frigator Aug 26, 2014 3:55 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    I think it's good also. That is a good price for it and given the disappointment and drama with both FSC and PSEC, finding alternative BDCs trading at discount is prudent.

  • 1. NAV is at 10.56
    2. X-div tomorrow at 11 cent cost to short shares
    3. Bargain shares available to buyers with x-div adjustment

    Look for shorts to close positions as trading ends today.

  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    I agree and this is all good as it provides some basis for being optimistic going forward.

    The negative news though is not just earnings which was a 25% miss (.32-.25) but the decline in NAV from 10.68 to 10.56 where it shed 1%+ of its value and the observation by others that PSEC relies too much on nonrecurring sources of revenue which make it susceptible to these surprises.

    Hopefully the large deals over summer will pay off next quarter. This quarter's disappointment may prove to be a buying opportunity that pays off during the holidays. In any event, I am long and am likely to add shares if there is a sharp discount but otherwise holding shares for the next quarter report.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Analyst: est. 32 cents a share earnings

    by lespaulz24 Aug 25, 2014 4:17 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Buying if it misses. I expect next quarter will better show the impact of the large deals completed this summer. This quarter may just cover the 32 cents. Just.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Take them skiing in the high country this winter so they will consider App State - good value, small classes, fairly conservative campus, not expensive yet a good education.

    What's more, you get to keep them close but not so close they will mind. Given you live just 'off the mountain', they will be within an hour's drive to visit home; something very useful for both them and you and often understated in importance. Still, it is far enough that they are on their own and can have a separate life.

    I'm a management professor and the concerns you raise about college education are spot-on and you do have to shop for a 'whole package' deal which goes beyond tuition cost and includes potential proximity, campus culture, and actual pedagogy delivered by professors rather than grad assistants or by professors in 350-student lecture courses.

  • Reply to


    by swampoppawpaw Aug 25, 2014 9:02 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Hi cwn600, We met at the MSN board years ago when MSN did the last of its special dividends.

    That was very fun and I recall turning some 50% in a matter of hours and you trying to disabuse people of how the special divy was not a gift - yet so many do not understand.

    Good luck to you.

  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 20, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Thumbs down for you.

    'DD' - you can't even spell DD much less do it. Yeah, you are among the worst short tools on this board and your posts read like they were written by middle school cheerleaders. You're welcome.

  • You can pretty much put everyone, including me on ignore, and just follow his posts.

    Or you can entertain yourself and read the screed posted by shorts. Things like "Buying at 3 cents!" "Going BK tomorrow!".. and other great insight to help you decide on how to lose your money.

  • Reply to

    This MARKET is waiting for an excuse to TANK

    by thewisejman Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 14, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    There's no news that should affect the stock price that I am aware of. Recent earnings were positive and like you said, it's a BDC darling.

    I wouldn't give up on it. I also think the rpice here is good and you can flip it around $18 plus maybe get a nice divy while waiting. I've held it before where it seemed to stall and then suddenly, for just as little explanation, it starts rising steadily.

    Might be there are so many SPOs going on that they are drawing cash reserves so TCPC has stalled for that reason?

  • Open the $SPX chart and plot 20 & 40 EMA and 50 DMA and you can see 20 & 40 EMA were passed today and 50 DMA lies at 1956, just 1 point away from today's close. That serves as initial resistance now but once passed, likely we have had our 'correction' and start consolidating with it as support. Also request the RSI and MACD for $SPX as these are the major signals I tend to use to understand the market from a technical perspective.

    Also encouraging is the on balance volume which has been rising consistently the past week - a trend contrary to most corrections where the OBV would indicate a trend of heavier selling than buying. This also supports the idea that people ARE buying any up movements in the course of this dip. The OBV is very compelling as it is a volume trend analysis and it is showing a strong bullish trend in volume - volume on up days exceeding those 'sell off' days, even in the face of having lost more than 2 months of gains and of course, all the bad press that this market has drawn from propeller heads.

    Relative strength also passed 50 today so that is also a positive sign for the market. Finally, the MACD is at a crossover point with a sharply accelerating positive trend line.

    All these major stochastics are at a key turning point.

    We'll see if the test of the 50 DMA confirms this emergent bull or whether we are in a sideways or downside bearish correction.

  • Reply to

    This MARKET is waiting for an excuse to TANK

    by thewisejman Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 14, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    If you didn't pick up some TCPC during the last SPO, the price now is attractive for a fundamentally sound BDC.

    OAKS is attractive at this price level (11.20s) also if you are looking for a REIT.

    Otherwise, cash isn't the worst place to be as there are many SPOs happening and there may be some good opportunities. Seems like everyone and their cousin is doing SPOs now.

  • Reply to

    NCT spo

    by frigator Aug 13, 2014 1:12 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 13, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    I think NRZ is the better of the two and 6.20 price is attractive.

    Sold my NCT and not planning to acquire more anytime soon.

  • Reply to


    by thewisejman Aug 11, 2014 10:31 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 11, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    I think MCC is still a buy. HRZN is maybe a bit weaker buy but still has some room. FULL is down and attractive at these levels.

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