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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

ae_savant 12 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2015 1:26 AM Member since: Jan 14, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Retirement income

    by frigator Apr 20, 2015 10:50 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Apr 20, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    There no safe harbor options available to new retirees that provide reasonable ROI. Those have traditionally come in the way of pensions, social security, rental income, and bonds. Bonds are threatened with the new rate environment. For most everyone only social security and rental income qualify as safe harbors with a return. At least that is what I figure upon my own retirement.

    Other than real estate which returns rental and so is responsive to inflation, there is only speculation available. My own situation is one where I expect to retire early and rely on SS at 62 years, pull in rental income, and draw upon my equity investments - my bond allocation is approximately 15% bc there is no money to be made in bonds.

    So like most everyone, I will have the majority of my assets invested in equities and sparingly in bonds - a healthy portion in real estate that generates rental income and is managed by professionals who skim 8% off the top.

    Equity allocations follow Paul Merriman's modified FAMA 3-factor model (he calls it the buy and hold portfolio) and it has worked reasonably well for me. My problem is the lack of discipline in following it as about 1/2 my equity exposure is individual stocks - largely BDCs, REITs, and other dividend shares. I'm correcting that and hope to move toward 75% of my equity portfolio being invested in ETFs and mutual funds that correspond to Merriman's approach by the time I retire. The other 25% will be in those dividend payers and some speculative shares that are available at the casino.

    No very good solutions exist. My dad used to be able to pull in 5%+ CDs but we won't see that unless the US gov't wishes to spend its revenue on interest on the debt. So we have to roll the die and assume higher risk at a time in life when we wish to contain risk as much as possible (and still not exhaust our savings through draw-down.

  • Reply to

    MCC and PSEC

    by frigator May 4, 2015 11:58 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant May 4, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    I forgot to add MCC to my list of misery. Are business loans so easily available now that BDCs can't make any good deals? I mean, what the hell.

  • Reply to

    Retirement income

    by frigator Apr 20, 2015 10:50 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Apr 21, 2015 1:38 AM Flag

    Yeah. If one wants to pull 10% and 6% dividends only because the pps deteriorated 40% in 6 months, that's a plan.

    *roll eyes*

  • Reply to

    Market up, my BDCs down

    by frigator May 1, 2015 1:28 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant May 1, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    Market sucks right now. No good signs, just a muckety-muck.

    Am wondering if I should take the 22k loss on FSC, the 27k loss on PSEC, the 10k loss on JMI, and the 18k loss on ARR and just give the finger to the BDC and REIT sectors. Course, having a few drinks tonight makes it easier to wanna do that.

    I've had much better return with lower dividend paying ETFs than these deep in pocket high yield issues. I don;t like the idea of investing in 2-5% dividend payers bc I don't believe the risk is mitigated in any single-issue stock. I am becoming more convinced that ETF, at least now, are safer and better fit for me.

  • Reply to

    todays action

    by frigator May 5, 2015 1:29 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant May 5, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    Only placed an order for more NRZ as it declined to 16s but didn't get any. Otherwise, watching this mini-meltdown as I lost some 20k+ in a day.

    Earnings are due for many of my issues so am not jumping ship - anyway, never made any money jumping ship but have recovered from stormy seas.

  • Reply to

    Retirement income

    by frigator Apr 20, 2015 10:50 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Apr 21, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    I agree. NYMT is a good one and I have it. My regret is that I also have ARR, FSC, PSEC, and JMI but not enough NYMT or NRZ.

    NRZ is the best performing high-dividend payer out there right now and most promising one for the near future.

  • ae_savant by ae_savant Apr 22, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Picked up a small position with 300 shares in FV - a momentum ETF that uses relative strength as basis of share representation and rebalances based on RS each week. Costly at .98% fee but has outperformed S%P by some 40% since summer 2014 when it appeared.

    Have read some good articles also on this ETF and am also looking at other 'strategic ETFs' that can be bought and sold based on macro variables in the market and to compliment my buy and hold core ETF portfolio.

    What do you think of these new ETFs that depart from traditional sector and asset allocation angles?

  • Reply to

    Dogs of Dow Stratergy

    by mr.phil2u Apr 22, 2015 2:51 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Apr 22, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    Correct.

  • Reply to

    Dogs of Dow Stratergy

    by mr.phil2u Apr 22, 2015 2:51 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Apr 22, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    I think ETF is the way to pay that.

    There is also a new ETF that appeared which invests in only the IBD top 50. I think it started trading today. FFTY

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/innovator-ibd-50-etf-makes-140002590.html;_ylt=AwrC0F_78TdVCnYAPy.TmYlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByMDgyYjJiBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--

  • Reply to

    OT: pay cash or finance

    by frigator May 16, 2015 5:14 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant May 18, 2015 1:19 AM Flag

    From what I know of you frigator, you are retired and have a modest income from private loans and you have found that revenue from that source is increasingly constrained. Meanwhile, like most of us posting here, you have acquired a laudable level of wealth that permits you to struggle with wants and not needs.

    I could be i n a similar situation, though retirement is in my own hands and I m pulling in 6 figures while working. When the gravy train ends, I will be similarly situated and likely looking for a new abode and making a decision that resembles your own - so for me, your dilemma is actually one that gets me to think beforehand.

    What I know given my own experience is that I would prefer a situation of debt that is easily assimilated into my current lifestyle - that would likely mean paying some 50% in cash and assuming the remainder in a mortgage. Mortgage rates are very good right now and I think even playing solid, conservative, low-growth dividend companies will produce yields comparable to any 15 year mortgage (say 3% roughly). If you had an equal amount in Proctor and Gamble or Clorox some other very conservative dividend player and it didn't appreciate in capital gains, it would wash out the cost of your mortgage interest.

    So I would try that. I don't think all debt is bad and some measure of debt is actually functional as it permits you to maintain a credit score for subsequent purchases that require some debt assumption. Plus the interest on your mortgage would tax deductible and that is a small advantage to consider. All in all, it may be an advantage to assume some debt as it can be written off, maintain your credit rating, and be an amount that doesn't challenge your current lifestyle.

    Let us know what you do and good luck!

  • Reply to

    NRZ raised qtr dividend

    by thewisejman May 14, 2015 6:50 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant May 18, 2015 1:26 AM Flag

    Great stock. Love the action of NRZ and only regret not buying and flipping shares as it ranges across 70 cents or so over the last month. NRZ is a keeper.

  • ae_savant ae_savant May 18, 2015 1:23 AM Flag

    I think you guys should be at the race track. First, place, show, anyone?

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