I feel pretty good about $65m of EBITDA this year. Operationally, momentum is with us.
Assuming so $65m * 5x EBITDA Multiple = $325m Enteprise Value.
Assuming $150m Net Cash would be $475m of Equity Value.
Fully DIluted Shares of 42m would equal = $11.31 per share.
And we would still be wildly undervalued vs. our peers who we seem to be gaining ground on.
$80m of EBITDA in 2016 is doable which would be $13.81 per share (est)
They just projected $3.75 - 4.00 for Q2. Street expects $3.78. I would bet they would beat that.
Plus the stock is valued at 11x PE. This is with Defense at a Trough.
So if JLTV or MSAV come in. This think is going to skyrocket. I love this stock right now. Absolute steal. You basically are getting an option on that business for free.
Why not? BAE Systems bought Armor Holdings - a massive US military truck maker.
And yes, the division is dead. And no, no one will buy them anyways.
Guys, this is a small step in replacing Ford and CAT. They lost a lot of business with both of these two. This is a non-event.
Stock price is negative during his tenure. The market is up massively over this same time. Berman has failed us. We need new leadership immediately. He has destroyed to much value for too long to be given a hall pass.
Why? AM General was worth $1b in its heyday. If OSK got this contract, it would be a game changer.
Analysts have a $60 target without the contract. Add $20b of Revenues and it adds up.
Shareholders like myself and others spoke up and demanded change. We know have an activist shareholder as I desired. We know have a buyback as I desired. Now we need new mgmt or a sale.
You on the other hand blindly cheer on their incompetence. You even now are singing dr. Pats accomplishments.
Get to work and demand change
So you don't blame the mgmt team that has the worst stock performance for any ceo and cfo that has been together this long? Instead you do nothing and watch them destroy value while being paid handsomely- great strategy typ
Mr. Soon isnt the cause of the stock going down to begin with. JAKK management did that on their own. The notion that Mr. Soon has any clue whats going on with this company though is laughable. He is down 30% on this investment over the past 3 years while the market is up 30%.
He is well respected (but not because of his toy knowledge or his financial markets experience). The interactive toys his firm has completed to date have been a COMPLETE FAILURE. The Tow Truck has been successful but this has little if nothing to do with Nantworks.
Dr. Patrick's connections at Disney have nothing to do with JAKK's success at Disney. To say otherwise is simply fraudulent.
His investment hurts for 2 reasons. 1) He is not active and does not hold our inept mgmt team accountable. That is a big negative. If you owned 20% of a company, wouldnt you speak up if the company was in disarray. 2) I know with 100% certainty - because I have been actively reaching out to other firms - that many activists and other investors will not invest alongside a wealthy asleep at the wheel 20% investor. That is a fact.
I respect and admire Dr. Patrick. He is not the reason this stock is down over 50% over the past several years. But his presence has not helped one iota either.
1) Do your homework. I have been long JAKK for several years. Ignorance will not be rewarded on this board and you seem to have a lot of it.
2) If you dont like the brutal truth, then find another Board. Many of your fellow posters will gladly attest to my bluntness. But I have been pretty accurate regarding this stock over the last year. Mr. Soon is very wealthy. I am sure he is very bright. He didnt get that way by his stock picking or his knowledge of the toy industry.
He bought in years ago. If he wanted to buy the company, he would have done it by now for 1/2th price. His mere presence in this stock scares a lot of investors away. Activists and other institutions do not want to coinvest with him since he has so much power. If they knew him and his investing prowesses, perhaps, but he is simply an enigma to them and they aren't going to roll the dice with him.
I mean the guy owns 20%+ and has no Board representation. Enough said. He is asleep at the wheel. He should have been overseeing management all these years instead his silence has enabled mgmt. to continue its ineptness.
Where in the Sam Hill have you been? He bought in at $11 and took the stock down to $5. And until diluton occurs he owns 20%+
He should stick to cancer not toys. He's one of the primary reasons we are in this debacle.
Perhaps I am biased. But I perceive Popeye's as a second class restaurant to Bo. Its clients, locations, and food are all superior. No reason at all for this stock to trade at a discount to Popeye's. May take some time, but this will reverse itself nicely. That's the equivalent of RC being more valuable than Coke.
The loss will be smaller year over year in total and that's all that matters besides what the street estimates. Get a clue. Focus on things that matter.
The same thing could be said for SHAK and FIT and every other IPO that skyrockets. The fact is underwriters like underpricing these things. The stock is still up 50% from its IPO price. BO will be fine. They wont be doubling and tripling locations every year which eliminates the doubling of stock prices, but they also wont be as susceptible to major valleys either. People like these places a lot and that isn't going to change anytime soon. Slow and steady - fine with me.