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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

aeishh 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2014 10:02 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2009
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  • aeishh by aeishh Jul 30, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    $230m Enterprise Value / $44m of EBITDA = Cheap

  • Reply to

    I Believe Golong Is Right.

    by silverold Jul 29, 2014 2:01 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 29, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Clearly some financing activity will occur but that's not new news. Its been priced into the stock for a long long time. this is simply the fact that there is no news to create demand. Shorts rule in such a void.

  • aeishh by aeishh Jul 22, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    At an Enterprise Value of $4.9b and about $460m of EBITDA, this seems pretty cheap in a vacuum and especially given its peers multiples. VF is far greater than this.

    I agree same store sales need to improve to ever get back to where it was but what if they dont its still a solid $50-55 stock. Brand is powerful - people pay through the nose for this stuff. International growth and growth in male segment alone could be powerful.

  • Reply to

    Real worth

    by djlresearch Jul 11, 2014 1:53 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 11, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    They do have a lot of Debt. But they also have a lot of EBITDA. The Term Loan is not due until 2021. They have more than enough time to pay off the Term Loan. Obviously, this all comes down to the Mariano's stores. If they are hit, its a $20+ stock. If they just tread water, its $0.

    Dominick's just disappeared and thats a massive hole for everyone else to fill. Yes, Walmart, Costco, Meier and Target are all here. But that is a completely different market. Jewel is actually migrating that way too. Whole foods is also a different market. Instead, you have Mariano's going against Pete's, Treasure Island, Caputos, and Sunset. I like Marianos chances against them.

    I dont choose between Target and Mariano's. And I dont think many people do.

  • Reply to

    Ok, it's moderate-buy-back time....

    by longfcell Jun 24, 2014 11:36 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 11, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Long-

    How on earth can you say there is a risk for a secondary? They have a $20m untapped line.They also will be EBITDA positive this year. Why would they sell equity as opposed to tap their bank for $20m.

  • Reply to

    BWEN's first profitable quarter.

    by lucky_trader2003 Jun 25, 2014 12:24 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 7, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Your ignorance is overwhelming.

    How is their balance sheet weak with no debt currently? Their balance sheet is fantastic.

    The cost of these lines is already known and is far less than the cost of equity. The cost of equity is about 14-16%.

    Whoa. Glad everyone here gets to witness your ignorance firsthand. I guess this is your shtick though. Go around to message boards and talk about secondary offerings.

  • Reply to

    BWEN's first profitable quarter.

    by lucky_trader2003 Jun 25, 2014 12:24 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 25, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    I am not debating their margins or the quality of the company.

    I am taking issue with you spewing nonsense about a secondary offering causing dilution. That was a very ignorant comment. Agreed?

    You have to admit companies with untapped lines of credit typically do not go out and sell equity.

    Humor us, admit you were wrong.

  • Reply to

    BWEN's first profitable quarter.

    by lucky_trader2003 Jun 25, 2014 12:24 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 25, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    They also have $30m+ of inventory. They buy the inventory thus creating the payable. It then takes time to turn the inventory into a receivable. Given their backlog and the long lead time to make a tower, this makes intuitive sense.

    But forget that. Lets examine your point. So, you are faulting the company for paying vendors in say 45-60 days but getting paid by their customers in 30 days? This is called excellent working capital mgmt. Every CFO strives for negative working capital.

    Furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge they have $20M of untapped credit lines.

    Wake up. If they didnt have a massive backlog, I may entertain your argument, but this is preposterous.

  • Reply to

    BWEN's first profitable quarter.

    by lucky_trader2003 Jun 25, 2014 12:24 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 25, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Rubbish. Please tell me you have something more than this you shorter. They have $11m in cash and $20m in bank capacity. They dont need $31m in cash anytime soon. Dream on, buddy.

  • Reply to

    Long term

    by subduded2000 Jun 23, 2014 10:03 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 23, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    They have the orders and backlog, they just need to execute. Aside from complete ineptness, they should at a minimum be cash flow neutral. They also have NOLs to cover all their income so Taxes are zero.

  • Reply to

    Long term

    by subduded2000 Jun 23, 2014 10:03 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 23, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    Yes, but they also have untapped borrowing capacity from the lines of credit. No dilution coming anytime soon. Plus they should be cash flow positive operating wise for at least the next 18 mos.

  • Reply to

    here come the bashers....

    by cjgrz Jun 6, 2014 10:49 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jun 6, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Except you also have $700m of debt. So the valuation is $950m not $250m. Slight mathematical problem. And with all the Caputo's and Pete's and others coming, competition will be fierce.

  • Seems to me the Mariano's can keep growing all they want but as long as these anchors in Wisconsin are holding us back, the stock is doomed. How many years will they keep attempting to reform them? Get rid of ASAP. Not good sign that Willis Stein dumped all their shares. If they really believed had promise, no chance they dump

OSK
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