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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

aeishh 128 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2015 3:06 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    JAKK & Patrick SOON-SHIONG

    by networthdev Jun 24, 2015 3:51 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 28, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    IF Soon was to buy JAKK, why wouldn't he have made an offer when it was in the $5 range and the stock was trading below cash value? Now he would be interested but at nearly 2x price. You are simply dreaming. Like you said he is a smart man. If he wanted this company he would have bought a while ago not now that the price has gone up.

  • Reply to

    JAKK & Patrick SOON-SHIONG

    by networthdev Jun 24, 2015 3:51 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 28, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    This is the same man who has taken an absolute bath on this investment. He is an absentee investor. The only reason the stock is even at $9 is due to Oasis and they are an activitist meaning they want him to shape up or ship out.

    If this was a cancer company, I would agree with you, but a tiny toy company he has proven to know nothing about.

  • Reply to

    Rachesky purchase of NAV

    by mrmarketman Jul 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 28, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    There is a better chance of CAT buying Navistar than any menaingfull GM deal. GM will be happy to sell Navistar made medium duty trucks with GM's name on it. And this will amount to about 100-200m of sales per year. Move on. Immaterial.

  • Reply to

    Rachesky purchase of NAV

    by mrmarketman Jul 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 27, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    They are definitely looking for M&A. And they will definitely find one at around $12-15. My guess is that he Icahn is getting OSK to come back to the table.

  • Reply to

    BOD buying

    by huntingdogboone Jul 24, 2015 10:27 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 27, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    This guy was also buying the stock in the 30's.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 23, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    Incidentally, while we will have to wait for the Q to prove this. I find it hard to believe the $1.6m in earnings is even related to China. In Q1 it was so immaterial they reported Zero. Now it goes to $1.6m of NI. I doubt it. This is most likely related to Nantworks/Dreamplay not China.

    Again showing us your overwhelming intellect.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 23, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    Listen, you didnt want me to call for a buyback. I did and the stock went up and stayed up. Cross that off, whats next, new mgmt. Stock will go up $2-3 if that occurs. We need that to occur. This should be a 6-7x multiple stock not sub 5. It is sub 5 because of B&B. Get rid of them and then we will take off. I also am not sold that this thing is going to stay up here. The one thing going for us is the buyback may prevent sub 9 prices. We cant just suck our thumbs up here. We need to still demand change. We are only at $9 because of these idiots. We were at 9 in 2000 also - look how that worked out for this team.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 23, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    Says the man who endorses the longest running worst returning mgmt team in public markets history.

    I have no idea about the JV. But if it was recurring, I would think they would have mentioned it.

    Lets all remember CC is down for another $1.6m in earnings from the JV in Q3. I would strongly say no to that.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 23, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    You do know nothing. The past means nothing. Is that why in Q3 2014, they increased all of their EPS estimates and Revs and EBITDA, and the stock went down 25%? If the past means nothing, then why look at the financials.

    I agree with Amy. They didnt raise guidance, they had $1.6m of nonrecurring EBITDA, given the past of this stock I see sub $9. But I will be glad to be wrong.

    You defend a mgmt team that has pillaged this company for 15 years while still not creating any shareholder value. Shame on you.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Very strange that no one asked about the JV income. Should we be expecting this every quarter from now on? Perhaps the Q will tell us. This was a rather large number - $1.7m.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    I hope you are right, but all it took was a BMO statement that the stock was fairly valued and we lost 15% on big volume.

  • Reply to

    Old wise owl say....

    by hopeful200 Jul 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    I am still in. Sold off 6000 shares at $9 premarket. Got in at $6.50. I am not complaining. Still have many more shares. I have been around this stock long enough to know nothing is easy. I have a feeling Ill see sub 9 still.

  • Reply to

    This is worse than Q3 2014

    by aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:09 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Sold some this AM. Still have a l lot. Income is income, but that is non-recurring income. If you pull it out, they missed. Perhaps, Q3 2014 was simply due to all the shorts. But Q3 last year was an amazing quarter and the stock got destroyed.

  • 1) You cite different ways you can grow - you haven't grown. Since you started at JAKKs, you have shrunk.

    2) There are no acquisitions that you can do when you trade at 5x EBITDA that will be accretive unless you buy them for less than that. And you consistently have paid more than that. An acquisition would be a death blow to this firm.

  • Reply to

    Beats by .05

    by keokeostwiz Jul 22, 2015 8:23 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Perhaps. This stock doesn't hold up well typically. Sales were strong. But missing by $0.04 is big. If it holds up despite this, that is a good sign.

    Why wouldn't these guys have put this out there previously? The JV income had to have been know ahead of time.

  • Reply to

    This is worse than Q3 2014

    by aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:09 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    They will have a good 2H. I agree. But this quarter was not good and the stock will go down. Unlike others, some people do look at the past to judge the future. Q3 2014, they raised guidance and the stock went down 25%.

  • Without the JV income, they missed by about .04. GM back in the 29%.

    Please Oasis put us out of our misery.

  • Reply to

    Beats by .05

    by keokeostwiz Jul 22, 2015 8:23 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 22, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Could get ugly today

  • Reply to

    Wednesday

    by jjwalker964 Jul 17, 2015 3:35 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 21, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Im probably being cynical on what happens tomorrow. But honestly guys, I think you are wildly underestimating what the Street thinks of this duo. This stock only 2-3 mos. ago traded below cash value. And not just for a day or two - for a sustained period of time. That is an amazing vote of no confidence. Things have begun to uptick thankfully - although I think people simply came to their senses, but its hard to sit here and not want the CFO gone for sure. He rejected Oak Tree, he authorized the buyback, he continues to issue the convertible debt at highly dilutive levels, he attracts no investors, and he butchers the CC's despite good results.

    We need a 6-7x multiple. That's not asking a lot when HAS and MAT are at 10x. Our CFO has no capital markets experience. He was sitting on $125m of cash at $6/share and waited to announce a buyback until it went to $8.50.

    I am amazed how forgiving you all are. I haven't been a shareholder for the past 15 years. I don't care about 2002. But I think it is fair to expect your highly paid execs to deliver or leave. This isn't that crazy of a concept except in JAKK world with all of you as shareholders.

    We trade below 5x EBITDA. Tier 1 Auto Suppliers with massive leverage trade here. We are growing promising story, we should be way above this. But we will not until we demand change.

  • Reply to

    Closing Price on 7/22

    by aeishh Jul 20, 2015 3:23 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jul 21, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    LOL - great way to invest. Ignore the past.

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