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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

aeishh 156 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 4:11 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    very little growth if any, divi next to go

    by pechstein.carl Dec 29, 2014 8:51 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 30, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Carl-

    Sounds like you have an axe to grind. Not growing is certainly not dying. Don't tell that to Phillp Morris or others. This company is a gem. Great dividend. Solid margins. Institutions are loading up.

    Too bad you are so jaded.

  • Reply to

    Worst Run Company Ever

    by aeishh Jan 27, 2015 2:15 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 30, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Look out below. I think this one will see Chapter 11 before $35. Real shame, American Icon.

  • Reply to

    Buy back the Stock!!!!!!

    by aeishh Jan 28, 2015 5:12 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 30, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    So a company with $52m of EBITDA and Net Debt of $80m +/-, no debt payments for 3 years, a $75m untapped line of credit, positive working capital, and you are forecasting for insolvency?

    SA - You really have to screen your writers.

    I couldn't make this stuff up myself. At least you have shown everyone your true intellect and motives.

  • aeishh aeishh Jan 29, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    As an equityholder it is concering that the company continues to see negative trends. Concerns lead to people selling. Try Webster's next time.

  • Reply to

    Buy back the Stock!!!!!!

    by aeishh Jan 28, 2015 5:12 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 29, 2015 10:28 PM Flag

    1) Its not my concept of "Net Debt". Its also a commonly used finance term used by Wall Street and Academics. If I have $2b in Debt but I also have $2b in Cash, do I really have debt? Google Net Debt. You may learn something. Another example, read the Convertible Notes Convenants - do they cite Debt to EBITDA or do they cite Net Debt to EBITDA? Ill give you a hint - I am right. Banks only care about NET DEBT.

    2) On 9-30-13 JAKK had $138m of LT Debt. On 12-31-2013 JAKK had $100m of LT Debt and $38m of ST Debt - since it was now due in less than a year. What in the hell are you smoking?

    3) Furthermore, AR went from $258m in Q3 to $129m - a decrease of $129m. That is cash generated. Some went to pay AP and some went to increase cash then went from $57m to $117m, an increase of $60m. Again what are you smoking. Cash went up! There is a document called Statement of Cash Flows - try reading it.

    4) Check any textbook - Enterprise Value of a Firm = Equity + Debt - Cash. Therefore today, Equity is $135m + Debt on 12/31 will be $215m and Cash will be about $145m (est). Value of JAKK will be about $205m +/-.
    With $52m of EBITDA that means the company is trading at just under 4x EBITDA. HAS and MAT trade between 8-10x EBITDA. So lets say JAKK is an inferior company and doesnt deserve such a valuation. Maybe it only deserves a 6x multiple. 6x $52m of EBITDA = $312m Valuation. Subtract out the debt of 215m and Cash of $145m and that leaves an equity valuation of $242m. Current Valuation is $135m. That means their is about $107m of appreciation out there or 70% upside.

    5) Keep in mind a PE firm can go to a bank and borrow 6x EBITDA. That means they could put no equity in and buy this company with no risk.

    6) Mgmt sux. And maybe Frozen declines somewhat next year. But even if we dont get 70% upside, there is a rock solid case for 30-50% upside.

    Stop embarassing yourself and SA with your uniformed posts. Its just shockingly unethical.

  • Reply to

    CD-VISION

    by jjwalker964 Jan 26, 2015 9:31 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 29, 2015 10:10 PM Flag

    CD-

    1) No one claims your article was the claim of the drop. Your article had no new information and numerous inaccuracies and misrepresentations. But that was your intent.

    2) You did tell people to sell their stock before some big unknown event occurred. You knew when you told people to do this that the big unknown event was simply your article. You misled these people for your own personal gain. Those are indisputable facts.

    3) Your article was written for your own gain and to prop up your MAT recommendation. Are we to honestly believe that prior to your current MAT disaster you had a 98% success rate as you claimed? Cmon. So clearly your articles are full of mistruths.

  • aeishh aeishh Jan 29, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Its not hard to find. Q4 2014 was worse EPS wise than Q4 2013 - despite higher revs.

    And Q1 2015 will be a bigger loser than Q1 2014.

    The stock is up simply because expecations for this quarter were beaten down. The trend is concerining.

  • Lowered Q1 Revenues and forecasting another loss while Street expected profits.

  • Reply to

    Buy back the Stock!!!!!!

    by aeishh Jan 28, 2015 5:12 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 29, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Bar-

    They have $300m+ of AR. They will convert that to cash. Some will go to pay AP but most of it will go to the cash account. At the end of Q4, they will have $215m of Debt and they will have about $130m of Cash so their net debt will be about $85m.

    This happens every year. Check the Q3 and Q4 cash flow statements from years past. The only thing that might hold it back is that Q4 will be strong so they may have even more AR than normal at the end of Q4 which means the cash will just come in now and show up on 3-31.

    Simple math.

  • Reply to

    Buy back the Stock!!!!!!

    by aeishh Jan 28, 2015 5:12 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Except that-

    1) Margins are strong at 29$ - and headed north
    2) Little Debt - $80m at 12/31/2014 which is why a buyback makes sense
    3) Positive Cash Flow
    4) And Frozen - which is a huge positive. That's like saying Iphones are keeping AAPL afloat.

    Ill give you inept mgmt.

    Other than that. You are spot on.

  • $10m. That's all. What else are you going to do with the money? Best return available!!!! Wake up Mr. CFO!!!

    Redeem yourself and your past poor performance. How can you justify a buyback at $20 and not at $6? Things have changed but not that much. If you the mgmt. don't believe in the company enough to be buying stock personally or as a company, how do you expect others too?

    Companies do not trade at 3.5x EBITDA unless they are going out of business? Your inaction means you agree with this. Spend the money!!!!

  • Reply to

    Worst Run Company Ever

    by aeishh Jan 27, 2015 2:15 PM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    1) Chinese buyers are good buyers and will not pay - so a buyout would be at $20
    2) What do they get by buying this other than distribution? You cant make these things cost effectively overseas and ship here. They have no technology to put into these things.
    Why would the Chinese think they are going to run this differently than NAV and beat PCAR and Freightliner? Can you see the average Truck Driver clamoring to have a Chinese rig? Not likely.

    If that's Icahn's play, then he is sorely mistaken.

  • Reply to

    CD-VISION

    by jjwalker964 Jan 26, 2015 9:31 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Investing in Convertible Notes with 5 year terms is a LT investment strategy. Shorting it the locks in this LT rate but minimizes their overall return. It is a conservative strategy. Flat out daytrading a thinly traded stock is poker. Two completely different investment strategies. No chance they are the same parties.

    There is no volume and the day traders and hedge funds are exploiting that. The convert affects the overall LT potential of the price to be sure. But it has nothing to do with the price behavior over the last 60 days.

    JAKK could announce a $20m buyback today - and should - and this stock would immediately go to $8-9 share. The shorts would lose out. Earnings will dictate what happens here.

  • Reply to

    CD-VISION

    by jjwalker964 Jan 26, 2015 9:31 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    The people who bought the converts are not day traders. At the end of the day, the underlying performance or economics of the transaction will dictate if this goes up or down. The fact that no instituions are buying has nothing to with the note holders.

  • Reply to

    CD-VISION

    by jjwalker964 Jan 26, 2015 9:31 AM
    aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    First, how you can be too hard on a guy who purposely wrote an article to grease his own pockets at your own expense? He was being completely disingenuous. He went on to message boards prior to the article going live telling people that some horrible event was going and to sell. He is a borderline criminal.

    The convertibles were a horrible idea. But keep in mind if they convert, $100m of debt also disappears. But we get diluted. I am not sure why you believe the have complete control over the stock though. They have no more control today then they did before the convert. The convert simply puts new economics into play with the dilution.

  • aeishh aeishh Jan 28, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    We have a new winner for dumbest post of the week. Every year nearly every company announces their earnings the exact same day - in Jakk's case the last Wed of Feb. They most likely need their auditor to sign off on certain elements of the financials and they aren't able to until February.

    Hundreds of companies wont report their earnings until February - it is irrelevant. If their China connection was in trouble, we would have heard about in the CC at Q3.

    Fnally, lets assume your ignorance was correct. Lets assume instead of $10m of EBITDA this Quarter, they made zero. That means the company is still valued at less than 6x EBITDA. Still cheap. That's the beauty of this thing. All of the bad news is already priced in.

  • Great Dealers and Brand and now run into the ground.

    Ford - Gone
    CAT - Gone
    Market Share - Gone
    Military Sales - Gone
    Parts Income From Engines - Gone

    Does anyone have a clue what Icahn is thinking? There is no end game here. The amount of time it will take to get share back is outlandish. Furthermore, as others point out, this is the high point of the cycle. Wait til the industry starts slowing down. M&A - Nope. No one needs them. You get nothing by buying them except distribution. I am sure the NAV dealers would love to take orders from the Chinese.

    That building out in Lisle is a monument to corporate greed and excess.

    How does one not just short this thing and ride it out?

  • aeishh by aeishh Jan 27, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Odds have to be increasing-

    1) AM General now is producing Mercedes Benz SUVs in Indiana -. a) They are teetering on bankruptcy and b) They will have their hands full making the Benz's - there is no way they can produce both credibly. Has to be big concern to DOD

    2) Lockheed lost their Manufacturing Partner midstream when BAE shut down Sealy. That would have been a tough facility to compete against. Now an unproven truck maker is making trucks for the first time in a non-truck facility

    Odds looking really good for OSK

  • aeishh aeishh Jan 27, 2015 9:11 AM Flag

    Good thing you list a lot of specifics. How do you define mess? And before you talk about all the debt? Remember they will have a ton of cash at 12/31/2014 from all the collected AR. Debt will be well below $100m.

    Financials-

    Growing Sales, Earnings and EBITDA - $52m
    Debt will be shrinking massively this quarter and be about 1.5x EBITDA - low
    Gross Margins will be 29-31%
    Cost cuts have taken hold

    Clearly, the Oaktree decision was terrible and mgmt.is terrible. But the underlying financials are extremely strong.

  • aeishh aeishh Jan 24, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    A) There are no pending lawsuits; this is an advertisement - nothing more
    B) Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities; they do have $250m of Working Cap as of 9/30

    You win this weeks award for the dumbest post of the week, Congratulations!

OSK
42.85-0.29(-0.67%)Jan 30 4:03 PMEST

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