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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

aeishh 159 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 minutes 51 seconds ago Member since: Apr 30, 2009
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  • aeishh aeishh 4 minutes 51 seconds ago Flag

    They would be wise to see how the stock performs after this call. If we see $6 again, expect a buyback. If it goes up, they can bide some time.

  • Reply to

    Look out below (yet again)

    by cuiny4k 2 hours 10 minutes ago

    Working Capital far Exceeds the Market Cap of this Company. They paid off AP and had to build up some inventory due to port issues.

    Not a big deal at all. And they could still announce a $20m buyback at anytime. Cash is the least of their concerns at this point.

  • Reply to

    Riley

    by hopeful200 15 hours ago

    You would think, but then again they would also be in deep do do with the SEC. Why risk it?

  • JAKK - 4.4x, and I am sure after tomorrow it will be below 4x

    Yet they still wont buy back their stock - instead they will go buy a company for 9-11x EBITDA and dilute everyone further.

  • Reply to

    Riley Downgrade

    by saltwaterdon 21 hours ago

    At $6 share, there is no reason to ever issue a sell. But moving it from Buy to Neutral is the same as a Sell.

  • Reply to

    Riley Downgrade

    by saltwaterdon 21 hours ago

    Well, there is the official kiss of death from JR. I would now sell everyone.

  • Reply to

    Riley Downgrade

    by saltwaterdon 21 hours ago

    The fact remains if the stock goes to $8 tomorrow, this analyst downgraded 24 hours before. That's a pretty bold move. It is extremely rare for an analyst to do this.

    This analyst is a joke anyways. But the fact that they did this 24 hours before means they they love to gamble, have insider info, or are just plain stupid.

  • Reply to

    Riley Downgrade

    by saltwaterdon 21 hours ago

    Very bearish sign. This analyst has little to gain by doing this and lot to lose. If they stock takes off tomorrow, their credibility is shot. You would think they would have to have some good info to justify doing this.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 19, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    Ok. But if you care to tell us why call option holders want the stock to go down, let us know.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 19, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    That's what I thought you don't know. Call me crazy but people who own call options typically like to see the stock go higher. I know that's hard for you.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 18, 2015 10:13 PM Flag

    Why on earth do they want to knock it down? Plus half the converts are at 9.50. Explain to us novices why? Be specific.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 18, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    1) People who invest in debt in hopes of owning the debt once a bankruptcy occurs are a very specialized investor class. If you think these are the same investors who bought the convertible notes, I do not know what to say. You are way off. Typically such investors buy the debt only when distress is probable. This company has practically zero debt and has no debt payments for 3 years. It is pure fantasy on your part.

    2) Lets assume your fantasy is correct. The Note Holders want to own the debt post foreclosure. Do the math. They put in $215m and then hedged about 50m. So they would lose $165m in a foreclosure. The company a few weeks ago was worth about $129m. So first, these note holders are going to have to put the company all back together again without cash and without the Frozen license and other valuable licenses and get to $57m of EBITDA like today just to break even or get a value similar to today, also, the company today isnt even worth $165m so why on earth would they think post bankruptcy with their efforts it would be worth this. This is simply one of the dumbest things you have said. And I normally agree with you.

    3) CC - Are you aware they have a $75m Revolver they haven even used? The worst thing about the 2014 issuance is - they never even needed it! They didnt need the money. They diluted everyone for no reason. Furthermore, if the best financing deal they could come up with was this, then they should all be fired. How much risk do these noteholders have or did they take? The company has $57m of EBITDA and less than 1x Debt. They could easily borrowed less or taken on a higher interest rate (8-10%)) and we would have been better off.

    4) I have consistently said this is a $9 stock. No more no less. I dont think it is undervalued. I think the CFO should be fired and I think posters on here who think the stock is going to $15 are delusional and I also do not believe the stock today is where its at because of the Note Holders.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 18, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    CC - Name a valuable asset of this company that will be left if they go belly up. AR will be gone and Cash and Inventory most likely. They have no brand nor IP. All of their license agreements will be nontransferrable and will be cancelled. I understand your point but its not valid here.

    If mgmt doesnt want them to convert, then they shouldnt have issued the debt and we all are screwed. If you truly believe mgmt is holding the stock down, we have real problems.

    There is no refiing this stock. It is simply too expensive. If you really are a convert holder and subscribe to the $15 price being thrown out there, it means your $215m of debt is now worth perhaps $370m. That is not going to be refinanced.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 17, 2015 10:38 PM Flag

    Einstein, go back and check the multiples when there was no converts. Report back.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 17, 2015 10:37 PM Flag

    So CC, then please explain to us all why now in the last 2 weeks, that the converts decided to go long?

    I agree they are hedging their position. I don't agree that they are actively trading the position daily to hold the stock down. Keep in mind they shorted 6m shares at say $7. So they make 42m if the stock goes bust but lose $215m. They have no reason to hold it down.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 17, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    $9 - Look back historically over the last 10 years and you will see this stock has always sold at a massive discount to its peers even when times were good. That's still good appreciation - nearly 30%. Ill take that, but I am not naïve to think anything over $10 is even remotely possible.

    $1 downside to $5 upside is pure nonsense. The downside is more than $1 as we have seen. Watch them announce an acquisition and you will see $4 in no time. And there is no $5 upside. This stock is not going to $12 unless Frozen 2 is coming out tomorrow.

    If everything you spewed were true, we wouldn't be at the current price. Oh I forgot the Converts all of sudden last week changed their tune - for no apparent reason mind you - and now decided to go long and let us make money. Keep drinking the kool aid.

    Praying for $9 but am expecting $6.

  • Reply to

    What happens after earnings on Tuesday

    by jrkkek Apr 17, 2015 1:46 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 17, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Agree with you 100%.

    And since the stock tends to be inversely correlated - and I am not joking - to JR, I would bet it goes down.

    Good chance the block trades were people selling their shares anticipating another massive decline on Tuesday.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Dwindling

    by aeishh Apr 13, 2015 4:53 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 15, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    If it were only that easy. Odds are against this only because of the CFO. Its the correct move, its the obvious move - but those are the exact same reasons it is unlikely.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Dwindling

    by aeishh Apr 13, 2015 4:53 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 14, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    So they are shorting why then according to you? You claim they are the reason we are stuck at $6

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Dwindling

    by aeishh Apr 13, 2015 4:53 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 14, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    Hedging the risk - fine. But they aren't in there everyday shorting 1000 shares. They put their position on back in June and July. They aren't actively daytrading like JJ suggests.

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