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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

aeishh 176 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 6:03 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Dear Mr. Berman,

    by aeishh Apr 30, 2015 4:22 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 30, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Not according to the public markets

  • The share price performance of JAKK over the past several years has been a complete disaster. When compared to its peer group and the broader indices, JAKK's performance has been woeful.

    By any objective metric, JAKK is severely undervalued. I am not certain if the investor community dislikes the management team or perhaps Dr. Soon's large stake, but regardless of why this is occurring, we do know it is a fact. And nothing is being done to remedy this issue and perhaps there is nothing that can be done.

    As a result of this, I think now is the time to take JAKK to the private markets. JAKK has no business being a public company. The costs of being public are large, the time involved in managing a public company is considerable also. In addition, your decision making will not be second guessed continuously.

    An offer of $10.50 should be easy to get. That is $450m or $320 less on hand cash - EBITDA multiple of 5.6x, very cheap but 50% appreciation for current holders. A Private Equity firm could easily finance such a transaction. Due to your strong operational performance, a compelling investment thesis should be easy to convey to private investors who would control 100% of the firm.

    Management would monetize their current holdings and be allowed to invest in the new JAKK as well providing significant upside again. They would also have far less to worry about absent the public markets.

    The convert holders can exercise and get bonus shares making their investment a profitable one. Current equityholders can finally see some appreciation. Dr Soon may be the only party to dissent but he is part of the problem here so we need to act without his approval.

    I urge you to consider this alternative and stop our suffering. Some sort of action must be taken to stop this value from being continually destroyed.

    Aeishh

  • Reply to

    Chart is set up for a bullish engulfing candle

    by heavy_air86 Apr 30, 2015 11:04 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 30, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    They have ample capital now to do a buyback.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by jjwalker964 Apr 26, 2015 6:21 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 27, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    You do realize cash isn't low? $5 share with more to come.

  • Reply to

    Sellers Rationale

    by rippingoodcookies Apr 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 26, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    So if they did say this back in q4 then you would commend them? Check the cc transcript, they did. Lol

  • Reply to

    Sellers Rationale

    by rippingoodcookies Apr 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 26, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Well that's actually good news then if they had great earnings and continue to forecast great earnings despite this. Lol

  • Reply to

    Sellers Rationale

    by rippingoodcookies Apr 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 26, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Cause that's how they have been doing it for 20 years and how all other companies report as well lol

  • Reply to

    we may get some serious MO now

    by anabolic44444 Apr 25, 2015 10:06 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 26, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Do you really believe this stuff you say?

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by jjwalker964 Apr 24, 2015 4:53 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 25, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Amen

  • Reply to

    BMO upgrade?

    by heavy_air86 Apr 23, 2015 12:39 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    JR - Are you a Board member? It is this type of attitude by the Board and Mgmt that got us into this mess.

    Goodness, not only are your predictions 100% wrong now you seem to think that doing nothing is the answer to incompetence.

    You have to be a Board member of JAKK. Poulsen, Sitkrich, maybe Berman?

  • Every shareholder should every day send one email to a Director/Manager, Large JAKK Shareholder, and an activist money manager encouraging them to invest and boot Mgmt.

    It is our only chance of a turnaround. Demand action! Upgrade $13 PT - down 1% - LOL

  • Reply to

    BMO upgrade?

    by heavy_air86 Apr 23, 2015 12:39 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Only JAKK, beat the estimates 3x in a row - stock goes down.

    Analyst upgrade - stock goes down.

    Can you imagine what would happen if they actually were performing poorly or got a downgrade?

    Terrible thought.

    Great graph in their 10K where the S&P 500 and their Peer Group share prices have gone up 150% and JAKK's is down 50%. Tells the whole story.Yet no mgmt. changes, no BOD changes, no change at all.

    Poster child for an activist shareholder or a business school case study on mgmt. ineptness.

  • Great opportunity for you all:

    $10/Share Buyout Offer with 43m diluted shares outstanding equals $430m Valuation

    $150m Cash on Hand About Now, so you are really only paying $280m.

    $57m of EBITDA today - you could most likely borrow 4-5x that amount from a bank. Lets assume 4.5x or $256m. Equity Contribution of $24m.

    Lets assume EBITDA grows 7.5% year for 5 years or $81m.

    The company is then either sold again or taken public at 6x or $486m. Pay off the debt which should be about $150m by then and that leaves $316m for the LBO firm which only put in $24m.

    I mean this is simply too easy. And while some may say 7.5% EBITDA growth is aggressive, I would argue it may also be light. But even if it is a bit aggressive, they still would make a killing.

  • Reply to

    JAKKS beat earnings 3 consecutive qrts.

    by jrkkek Apr 22, 2015 10:32 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    $39m Convertible Note Repayment
    $2m Revolver
    $24m Forward Purchase

  • Reply to

    Consider......

    by sgthoov Apr 22, 2015 5:25 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    Robbins Arroyo - San Diego

    Trying to find 1 or 2 others

  • Reply to

    Hasbro is buying Jakks

    by robertlouismock Apr 23, 2015 7:12 AM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Why not? There are probably over $20m in cost synergies alone plus the fact that all of JAKKS earnings will get multiplied by 10 instead of 4.5 right now.

    Its not Apple or Mercedes, but from a financial standpoint - it is a very prudent move. Egos get in the way sometimes, but the smart guys leave emotions out of it and do whats best for shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Consider......

    by sgthoov Apr 22, 2015 5:25 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 23, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    Your not adding in any of the warrants he has from Nantworks.

    But lets assume you are correct, so what? You cant honestly believe Patrick sees value in owning 20% of the company vs. 10% of the company so much so that he would rather his investment continue to suffer losses.

    Financially, he is better off seeing the stock go up and seeing his ownership interest go down.

    What is his possible motivation for wanting to see the stock price go down?

  • Reply to

    Consider......

    by sgthoov Apr 22, 2015 5:25 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 22, 2015 11:01 PM Flag

    1) his average cost is well below 11

    2) he actually got a lot of shares for free

    3) Patrick has demonstrated he could care less about this investment. Keep in mind he is worth over 10b

    4) Patrick's investment today is worth about 35m, if the stock goes to 10, his stock is worth 46m but his ownership percentage is only 10 percent

    CC I am losing all respect for you, your not this naive

  • Reply to

    Consider......

    by sgthoov Apr 22, 2015 5:25 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 22, 2015 10:56 PM Flag

    Are you insane? Who is adamantly opposed to dilution?

    Shareholders are going to hold down the stock through 2020 to prevent dilution?

    Are you insane?

  • Reply to

    Consider......

    by sgthoov Apr 22, 2015 5:25 PM
    aeishh aeishh Apr 22, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    Guys,

    Why in the hell would you short the stock preventing share appreciation that far exceeds any dilution? That's a new one. Lol

    And even if oak tree wouldn't have closed, they would have gotten a 5 percent breakup fee as is standard.

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