Free cash flow in the qtr could hit 70 million dollars (all expenses in and before capital expense) depending on how costs flow through!!
The other big news I see is the demonstration that the MM mill achieved 80% capacity for the month of June and exceeded rated capacity by 6.6% on one day. There maybe no need for an additional large piece of equipment.
Larry, without going into all the details and assumptions my spread sheet says 80 cents a share for 2015 at today's prices. The accuracy of this is the same as fortune telling. But the possibility is there.
This suspension probably will not last more than a month or two. But the project is so massive that anything that slows it down is good news for future copper prices. Start up was scheduled for 2017.
"Global production of molybdenum in 2013 reached a new high of 539.2 million lbs, up from the previous year’s record of 535.2 million lbs. Full year figures from the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) also show global molybdenum use at 537.7 million lbs, breaking the previous year’s record high of 522.5 million lbs."
Google IMOA news June 2014 for the web site article
Perhaps Codelco's best option is to cut production now to raise the market price for copper and go slow on development. Going underground looks very expensive and risky.
I tried to post the website of a presentation by China Moly Co. based on data by the research firm Woods Mackenzie but Yahoo deleted it. Google "china molybdenum co. northparkes presentation Woods Mackenzie" and download the presentation. It contains the data you are look for.
The writer doesn't mention TC but he does have a story on copper and mentions the rapid rise in nickel and moly prices this year.
Assuming TC starts to accumulate cash starting this quarter, is it possible and does it make sense for the company to start to eat away at the 7.375 security callable June 2014 to control the amount of cash on its balance sheet in the quarters ahead? Just asking for thoughts on ways to improve the balance sheet.
With the increase in moly price, the continuing ramp up of MM and the timing of payment for shipments made in a quarter, the reported earning per diluted share (now approx 225 million shares) could range from 2 cents to 17 cents per share. It will probably be closer to the lower number based on three shipments and not four but that is open and a risk to T-med holders who are short. The opportunity given for T-med holders to exit in an orderly manner is not without reason. IMHO
I think you have show very clearly that this offer is aimed at those entities who bought T-meds and shorted the stock and have been collecting "free" interest. As the conversion date approaches and TC profits improve, the risk to their large gains goes up and this offer eliminates that risk because they can lock it in today. TC must know how many would probably take this deal before making the offer. Getting rid of this short overhang on the stock is a great move IMHO.
Dragon, I agree. This gets the misunderstood reported short over hang out of the way and prevents a possible disruption to the stock price next may when the conversion would have taken place with the stock at presumably a much higher price.
Carl, it is that simple. I come up with a number similar to yours. In the detail, I may differ 10 million higher or lower on a line entry but it comes down to basically TC is a cash generating business of 115 million to 140 million dollars per year in 2014 based on the guidance.
I keep coming up with 115 to 140 million dollars of free cash flow for TC this year using their numbers. That should drive a target price of $5 to $6. TC is conservative and the analysts are conservative on top of TC numbers.
The danger for TC is that a raider would offer $5 for the company today. That is a large premium over the share price today but a steal for a company with the future of TC.
It's no chump change, but put simply, if another company has 1 billion in cash earning 1.5%, it can earn the equivalent of 9.5% by buying TC and paying of the debit. ( apparently early redemption is possible according to Ultra in a takeover). The $85 million in interest shows up immediately.
The $5 per share for TC would be likely be funded with a stock swap. The future cash flow for this new enterprise is then very high and moving higher.
The danger of a takeover is there and could come out of the blue unless TC management can get the stock price up to where it should be. IMHO
Yes, LME price now also listed as $30000/tonne for cash buyer up $1500/tonne from yesterday.
Mis, I have no more insight than you, and it would be a fantastic investment for TC to buy the T-meds back at the present price. I doubt that TC has the free cash to do it now. However some on this board have speculated that TC is projecting a year end cash position that is much lower than would be expected given the expected performance and have wondered where the money is going.
I also agree that the analyst number is a good estimate and is close to my own. The problem with quarterly forecasting is that companies can and do legitimately adjust the timing of recording expenses and revenues to manage the reporting of their performance to the market place. They like to meet or be a little ahead of the analysts expectations and if they can hold back something to ensure that the next quarter will contribute to a steady improving outlook, they will. I expect TC will meet the analyst numbers and that TC already has a profitable second quarter pretty well guaranteed.