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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

affirmed_78 58 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jul 25, 2012
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  • Reply to

    The shorts are still controlling this stock

    by nammuang Aug 28, 2015 3:19 AM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 17 hours ago Flag

    There are plenty of biopharmas doing quite well in the current environment, regardless of the recent correction. Those are companies with substantial top and bottom line growth. The problem here is quite simple - ATRS has not executed. If it had, there would be plenty of investors and funds getting in and driving up the stock price. The stock price has actually gone down while short interest has gone down. That doesn't make sense unless longs have been bailing at an even faster pace than shorts have covered.

    Enough with the conspiracy theories - quality companies get rewarded in their stock price. It's just that this is not a quality company - at least they have not demonstrated it yet. That fact that a company that loses money perpetually is still worth over $260 million speaks to the fact that the market may actually be being GENEROUS with this company.

  • Reply to

    Paul Wotten - the fun never ends.

    by whogo70 Aug 22, 2015 6:12 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 22, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Time will tell but even assuming these guys are in it for the right reasons, it's a major long shot that they get a product to market, and exponentially longer shot that they have commercial success. That's why in my opinion many of these small bios are dramatically overvalued. A market cap of several hundred million is nothing to sneeze at, yet in biotech it's the norm for any company with a compound or two in phase I or II trials. People need to wake up and realize that the odds are heavily stacked against the long side. For every ACAD there's a dozen that get wiped out.

  • affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 21, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    The market is a small child whining. The Fed needs to be the adult and learn to say NO. People seem to have forgotten that the market can and will go down at times. What's the big deal?

  • affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 20, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    It would be a nice one-day trade to the upside but if you really think 25 bps max of rate increase in September is enough to topple the U.S. economy, then that's not saying much about the U.S. economy.

    The real problem is with rates already at zero, the Fed has limited tools to address the next crisis. That's the real reason they want to raise rates - in essence, to reload. The other reason is to stomp out bubbles. Believe it or not, there are still lots of overvalued stocks in this market.

  • Reply to

    See today's SA article

    by foogie88 Aug 19, 2015 12:35 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 19, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    Very interesting article and a solemn warning to investors in small-cap biotech.

  • Reply to

    Chapman' article & Loko's post got me thinking.

    by whogo70 Aug 18, 2015 10:26 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 19, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    The only reason they would buy ATRS is if they believed QST could be a significant moneymaker. There isn't enough savings on the device work because again, ATRS produces at a slight margin over cost, and gets only minimal royalties.

  • Reply to

    Chapman' article & Loko's post got me thinking.

    by whogo70 Aug 18, 2015 10:26 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 19, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    Exactly. Even if epipen is successful, ATRS will still lose money or be right around breakeven without significant Otrexup growth and/or QST. And to answer Jimmy, they aren't offering to buy ATRS because they don't see any value in it, simple as that. Like I said earlier, ATRS does their grunt work and loses money overall. They're going to keep riding them as long as they can, unless they find a more profitable alternative.

  • Reply to

    Chapman' article & Loko's post got me thinking.

    by whogo70 Aug 18, 2015 10:26 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 19, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Probably because they can use ATRS to essentially outsource their device platform, knowing full well that ATRS as a company will have a hard time ever becoming profitable (without success from their proprietary products like Otrexup and QST). ATRS does the grunt work and basically gets paid pennies. I guarantee you TEVA has run the cost/benefit analysis of using ATRS vs. doing everything in-house and determined this was the way to go.

  • Reply to

    To those waiting for epipen approval

    by affirmed_78 Aug 18, 2015 5:51 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 19, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    I agree that epipen is more risky than Otrexup in terms of the AB rating. But how much more risky? And is it worth buying the shares? Those are the questions you need to ask yourself.

    To say that there are times the market hasn't gotten it right - I agree. But my point is the stock will go down significantly on an epipen setback. I think the upside could be as high as $2.50, downside could be $1. In other words I think the stock is pricing in about a 60% chance of approval. We'll never know one half of that equation, but we'll see the other half when news comes out.

  • Don't you think other investors are in the same camp? If so, why would the stock catch a significant bid on news that is expected? The market doesn't work that way. Just look back to Otrexup approval. The stock caught a little pop of around 10% which was immediately faded by most investors including ATRS management.

    On the other hand, news of a CRL would be very painful for shareholders. I just want everyone to be warned that there is limited upside (with a higher probability of occurring) and a big downside (with a lower probability of occurring). Generally, the market prices these things accurately going into risky binary events - there are no free lunches.

  • Reply to

    The institutions are loading up cheap

    by nealstockman Aug 17, 2015 3:51 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 18, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Now you're just delusional.

  • Reply to

    The institutions are loading up cheap

    by nealstockman Aug 17, 2015 3:51 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 17, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Any pop is likely to be faded if you're studying this stock from a technical perspective. There is a lot of overhead supply from shareholders desperate to salvage a small profit or just cut their losses.

  • Reply to

    short interest 8.3MM as of 7/31

    by rymankoly Aug 11, 2015 4:15 PM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 12, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    Not sure how or where you're getting that number. But you're talking about a stock that continually loses money, with no clear end in sight even with epipen approval. And the market cap is $300MM+. So can it go lower? Certainly it can.

  • affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 11, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    Housing I put into a bit of a bubble like stocks. Certainly fueled by low interest rates. Lately it has been driven by panic buying to lock in those low rates. That said, if you already own a home and have a mortgage rate locked in, it doesn't really matter what the housing market does.

  • Reply to

    This is a Strong Buy Now

    by brunoq_78242 Aug 11, 2015 10:26 AM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 11, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    Even with epipen approval, they may still post losses for the next several quarters. Right now they're riding high on the cash they just raised, but let's wait a year and see where things are at.

  • affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Gas has fallen probably 30% in the past year. I agree the price of food continues to rise. Then of course there's the ridiculous cost of healthcare and college which bring up an entirely different discussion. But aside from those items, I don't see much inflation. Personally, I hope the Fed raises - I'm a saver and enjoy a stronger dollar. But even if they do raise, I don't think it'll be much in the near term.

  • affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 11, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Contrary to what the Fed likes to say, the only reason they are considering raising rates is growing asset bubbles (like in biotech). The economy is not particularly strong, wage growth and inflation are minimal. The dollar is strong in relative terms, and we need low rates to refinance ever-growing gov't debt. So they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

  • Reply to

    OT AQXP

    by rymankoly Aug 10, 2015 9:22 AM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 10, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    AQXP has a tiny float , plus in this market any biotech with a chance in you know what of any sort of success years down the road trades at $300 million or more. Even ATRS does!

  • Reply to

    Revenue

    by andre_y_mb Aug 10, 2015 8:16 AM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 10, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    Correct to back out the LEO revenues. Those were deferred revenues, so the cash had already been received. The revenues were just recognized from an accounting standpoint due to the termination of their agreement.

  • Reply to

    This share price is ridiculously high

    by ietahdemc365 Aug 4, 2015 10:46 AM
    affirmed_78 affirmed_78 Aug 7, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Not only is drug pricing in a bubble, but stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations even considering these high drug prices. When both bubbles pop there will be tremendous pain. There's only so much that the consumer and insurance companies can bear, and I believe the long-term trend will be towards greater levels of choice, perhaps an unbundling akin to the media sector. Why would one CHOOSE a non-life-saving medication priced at $100k or higher? It just doesn't make sense. The current system is not sustainable.

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