I hate to bring this to the top, since it is mine.. But did anyone (longs particularly) have a comment? This might explain Orwin's quick "capitulation." On the other hand, like many other drugs, maybe it doesn't give enough of an indication as to possible revs.. Anyway, DOES ANYONE READ THE FILINGS around here? TIA..
Maybe... But the latest one I have available is a upgrade from buy to hold. Also, it you google zacks rating for AFFY, you will see the same thing.. But who knows.. Zacks changes their mind a lot, it seems. What I see is less than 3 weeks old.. They changed again?
Looks like they cut Takeda, not AFFY.. Pretty sure on 6/13 they raised AFFY from a sell to a hold (albeit a 90 cent price target).. You can get their research report free if you have a Fidelity account.
So the botom line is, even if it is found that Fresenius is to blame, and even if safer administering of Omontys is secured or labeled, the bottom line is (IMO only) that Takeda still might not find it worth the effort to bring this back, but will want the intellectual property. Be careful. Again, JMHO..
In addition, and this is worrisome also, Takeda could simply say that they are not brining back Omontys to the U.S. Thus, AFFY screwed, and Takeda gains what it can from Omontys outside US..... Per the 10-k, AFFY gets only 50% of the U.S. revs. Takeda gets the 100% of the world, 50% of U.S.... I pared down the number of shares I hold recently. This is not a gimme at this point. Those who suggest otherwise are not looking at this through Takeda's perspective. In the end, I think Takeda buys AFFY, and my guess is soon. However, it is not going to be for $5-$6 or more.. My guess is at best you might see a double or triple at this level at best, and Takeda writes this off.. Not trying to bash. GLTA.
Amgen will allow Roche's Mircera to be sold mid-2014.. The AFFY 10-K mentions this. It mentions the potential of Mircera to be the better alternative, even if Omontys is brought back to market.
I don't think so...I can see them pinning this to a buck on OE, but no even minor swings in between? The open interest at $1 isn't powerful enough to confine this to a buck at this time.. Somebody values this at a buck right now.. But why? jmho
Looks only like some high-ups at TBG making each other POA in their absence...Significance? Doesn't seem like much to me..
Not like there is debt out the wazoo with greedy bondholders making a play for the company. This is a pretty clean company with respect to debt and management issues. Not much to restructure. I'm sure TBG is not cheap. What exactly is their purpose, and why put them on the payroll if all Takeda intends to do is BK the company and steal the IP on the cheap ala godwinpeak... ?
Don't worry about good ol Orwin... I'm sure in a buyout Takeda will make things nice and good for him and his...... His selling some token shares for gas money to attend BOD meetings, well, pitiful, but not the whole story..
Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel on this transaction
I don't think he cares about making 50 cents a share on 16000 shares... But I do agree that it gives the hint that the investigation is going to be a long haul... He certainly would not transact this on the cusp of any bad news, we can be certain... We sit....
You're right. It ain't good... Unless he gets more from the tax loss than the recovery (if he knows) of AFFY..