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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine 165 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 1:55 PM Member since: Mar 28, 2006
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  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 17, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Yes, years.

    A perspective of what a company can do over years, and not simply what the next week holds, has made me a successful biotech investor. If you were to research my previous pseudonym, friendotd on YMB, you would find posts associated with many biotech companies that were bought out over the last 15 or so years. I used to get into knock down and drag out battles with posters who would largely hang back and take pot shots like "LOL... In coming years". They aren't around any more. Even the knowledgable and prolific shorts from years ago can't be found anymore. Only a handful of intelligent longs can I recognize when I stumble across them on YMB or other financial mbs. We have something in common besides our success: the long term perspective.

    Any newbies to biotech investing, please take note. While I have made some money on the short side, the bets that made me were long positions with companies where the downside was relatively limited (by experienced management, sound cash positions and technology validated thru good partnerships) and potential for extreme growth. I don't fight on YMBs much any more but a year or two from now you will still find me posting occasionally but "new to the game" and his ilk will be long gone, either broke or trying their hand at a new shell game.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 17, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    The future is bright for Hyqvia but AD is not a likely indication anytime soon. The neurological indications he discusses are likely to be certain kinds of MS and other demyelinating motor neuron diseases. Ig is approved for some now and used off label for others in this class.

    Remember that while Hqvia is clearly a best in class product, Baxter's plan is to broaden indications and sell it for a premium, at least until they can produce more Ig. The real revenue bulge won't come to HALO for several years. Not to worry,long term investors, stock price will eventually reflect future earnings. And those future earnings are substantial. I'm hoping HALO can stay independent long enough to enjoy all the fruits of so many years of labor.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 12, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    interesting find, fez
    it might find more pediatric use than I originally expected
    thanks

  • Reply to

    "Immunity Agreement" - Hingorani

    by occams_taser Oct 8, 2014 8:31 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 8, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    Thank you!

    LOL re: censors

  • Reply to

    cramer on stock market manipulation

    by davidshedivy Oct 8, 2014 12:35 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 8, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I am for it too - or perhaps for a tiny tax on every trade.. As it is, you just have to remember to not look at the tape. These programs are designed to separate us retail investors from our dollars. The financial industry here is the devil. The bulk of my portfolio is passive and I try very hard to resist the temptation to time the market.

    So, will we get a PR about tomorrow's conference? If so, before or after? If there is any new data presented, I'd guess after.

  • Reply to

    cramer on stock market manipulation

    by davidshedivy Oct 8, 2014 12:35 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 8, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Certainly, if the game is trading, the game is rigged. But, if you buy good companies and hold, and hold through market downturns and all the tree shaking, you can win. I just sold the last of my DRTX - a triple in 18 mos with tremendous ups and downs. It can look really bleak at times - even the week before buyout.

    HALO is a quality company. Have confidence in the fundamentals that have us here. We should be fine.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 8, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Efficacy won't be more than promising while a trial is underway.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 8, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    You are correct. Safety not yet established in children. Indicated for adults.

  • Reply to

    what is the new IP worth?

    by davidshedivy Oct 7, 2014 3:44 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 7, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    alien twin,

    I try not to blather too much, but allow me to blather a bit more. :-) My point is only that this test won't generate much in the way of revenue for HALO. Perhaps my words were too cute for some. I took the question to mean $$$ Some biotech investors new to the game don't understand the huge difference between the testing industry and the drug industry. I was trying to enlighten.

    As you say, this test is likely essential for future trials. You can imagine HALO needs a specific test that will give a reproducible result as part of any future trial that tries to distinguish (either pre or post randomization) HA status. The HA status in the current PAG vs AG trial is a subjective measure. I would guess that isn't good enough for approval if the difference between trial success and failure rests on HA status. I saw that as a shortcoming of this trial if, as some have speculated, HALO tries to Fast Track PEG for Stage 4 PanCan. Not so much of a problem, though, for a Ph2 trial that sets up a Ph3 trial using this tool... And, as I indicated before, it is likely to be a more important measure in NSCLC since that cancer has less HA association.

    fotd

  • Reply to

    what is the new IP worth?

    by davidshedivy Oct 7, 2014 3:44 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 7, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    I don't disagree with you. I shouldn't have sounded dismissive of the patent. The test is a necessary step in the development of PEG and possibly required for the upcoming NSCLC study.

    It's just that it shouldn't be considered a revenue generator. there is very little moat around the business of lab testing. If something has any kind of premium, it takes very little for a major, such as Quest, to offer a test that does the same thing. This test isn't about the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    what is the new IP worth?

    by davidshedivy Oct 7, 2014 3:44 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 7, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    Nothing if PEGPH20 doesn't work.
    Not much if PEGPH20 does work - since the revenues from the test would likely be dwarfed by drug revenues.
    It is nice, though, that HALO is following through on something they had said they would do.

  • Reply to

    Good, PR woke up !

    by alexandria_cairo Oct 3, 2014 1:18 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 3, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I don't see any buyout coming within the next 12 mos.

    Every potential player will wait to see some Ph2 results of PEG before any talks about a buyout. It is just too big a wild card. Pharma won't speculate and pay what it is worth without better data and we won't let our little company go for just the worth of the non-PEG products.

    My guess as to course over the next 18-24 months: I think the stock price will drift up as non-PEG revenue trickles in and ramps up, and then there will be some acceleration as we get close to Ph2 results. I think we could hit your 25 about then. Whether we double or more than halve afterward will depend on Ph2 PEG results. If things turn out as I've outlined, I will likely book some profits just ahead of the results but then hold a similar amount through the news release.

  • Reply to

    Baxter Q3 earnings Call 10/16

    by fezziwig2008 Oct 2, 2014 6:03 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 2, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Perhaps if you were a bit more experienced, new, you would have listened to some of the Baxter CCs or investor presentations where they say Hyqvia is NOT selling much in Europe. Baxter is short of Ig and until they have plenty (in a couple of years when their GA plant is up and running) they will be only selling as much Hyqvia as they can with premium pricing. In a few years, however, they will use their superior product to carve into their competition's market share. That is when you will see a pop in revs to HALO.

    Just another iron in the fire. Short now but keep looking over your shoulder. Those hot irons are adding up.

  • Reply to

    Final Tipping Point

    by rodious2003 Oct 1, 2014 10:22 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Oct 1, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    After dipping a toe in, I've been mostly waiting on the sidelines for a month now anticipating the data. This sort of action, in the days between when a few people might know some results and when the company expects to release those results, makes you wonder why the SEC can't simply look at a few days of trades in the most basic investigation. Should the trial results be dismal, I would expect a few letters asking for an investigation. Knowing how frequently these things happen, I wouldn't expect any prosecution.

    fotd

  • Reply to

    Any news of the actual HyQvia Launch in the US?

    by aniustudent Sep 29, 2014 11:23 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 29, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    yes, it is launched.

    I have tried and failed to post the link here a number of times. hyqvia has it's own website. go there to see the announcement.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 22, 2014 2:17 AM Flag

    And since Infante is an author of the paper I'd guess the subject was from Tennessee.
    Nice find, fezz.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 17, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    Nice. Eileen O'Reilly with pancreas cancer is top shelf. Very early and tiny neoadjuvant study but still nice to see PEGPH20 in another trial.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 16, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    moreover, the counterfeit drugs are the Roche IV forms. This has nothing to do with HALO.

    If you aren't already reading the Investor'sHub message board, check it out. Very good information shared respectfully. The ani... poster lasted about four posts there before his head was handed to him. although there isn't much activity when nothing is happening - speculation is at a minimum - the posters at IHub have a very good understanding of this company and no tolerance for BS

    fotd

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 16, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    umm - first of all - you are relatively new here and your obsession with fezz has caused a lot of good posters to stop posting here. You have enough intelligence to be useful but please try not to pick fights with every post.

    Regarding the Roche counterfeiting, FierceBiotech covered that and it doesn't involve the SC form and so doesn't involve HALO. Torres mistakenly thought it did.

    Counterfeiters in Europe are displaying a fondness for mimicking high-priced Roche cancer drugs. For the second time in 5 months, authorities there have uncovered fakes, and the two cases appear not to be connected.

    The Swiss drugmaker ($RHHBY) said in an email Monday that counterfeit vials of its top-selling blood cancer drug MabThera had been found in Germany. MabThera, sold as Rituxan in the U.S., is Roche's best-selling drug and the best-selling cancer drug in the world, with 2013 revenues of $7.78 billion.

    "Roche was alerted that counterfeit MabThera (rituximab) was detected in Germany by a German parallel importer," the company said. "Roche can confirm that all product associated with the batch in question was distributed by Roche to wholesalers in Romania. Once the product in question reached the wholesaler network, Roche has neither further control nor knowledge of the events that may have transpired." It said there was no evidence any patients had been harmed by the fakes.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Sep 16, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    twitter from whom?

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