Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine 155 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2015 8:10 PM Member since: Mar 28, 2006
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Totally off Topic - Windows 10

    by ynot966813 Aug 29, 2015 10:41 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    My 11 y/o son just did that with his computer. Easy switch back and everything works like before. Nothing lost. Windows 10 was a nightmare.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    In these days of immunomodulation, checkpoint inhibitors and better understanding of the tumor micrenvironment, it seems it is finally time for cancer vaccines. It's very hard, though, to know if anyone has any kind of investable lead in this field. Good luck with yours.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    thank you

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    ML,

    Are you free to comment on the Advaxis listeria HER vaccine? Thanks

  • Reply to

    The platform is in the eye of the beholder

    by wily.coyote Aug 28, 2015 7:55 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Twenty, or better, seems doable after ph3 elderly RSV, per Stan, a little over a year from now. That is about when they would need a cash infusion, assuming a reasonable deal for maternal RSV after upcoming ph2 results. Those who would be concerned about dilution, remember that would be less than ten percent of the float.

    Of course, this is pie in the sky speculation. But, my point is to consider what is possible if we aren't taken out.

  • Reply to

    The platform is in the eye of the beholder

    by wily.coyote Aug 28, 2015 7:55 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Irak..

    As shareholders, we really don't want further dilution. But a sale of ten million shares at 20 per would probably allow NVAX to continue to develop the nonRSV pipeline without hurting us too much. That could bridge the time it takes for RSV to generate real revenue.

    That said, a wise choice of good partners for various products would be the preferable route.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    Medimmune still has the culture of the disrupter. A partnership with. NVAX could be ideal if they wanted to complement their FluMist vaccine.

    Yikes, and it just occurred to me that FluMist is a live product and couldn't use NVAX antigen. Duh. I still would like to partner with them!

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 29, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    birdyvax,

    I would love to Novavax bring that paradigm changing flu ax to market. The speed of creation and the NA response are exciting. But, I imagine that from BP's point of view, it isn't anything too special yet. Most, if not all, fluvax manufacturers are working on their own quad vaccine, including FluMist. Because of the IgA mucosal protection, you might argue FluMist has the lead on growing future markets. They should eventually expand into the elderly.

    To bring NVAX flu technology to the fore would require an overhaul of a global program. How do you transition from here to there? My experience matches ML in this regard. BP isn't interested now. Should NVAX go it alone and start knocking at their door with a better and GROWING product in small markets, then they will value the technology.

    I would love NVAX to stay independent. Much like rooting for your favorite sports team and playing GM, I would enjoy playing Stan. He has so many moving parts to work with and has really set this company up to grow. The recent board addition of the CFO of a healthcare giant, and the hiring of a Washington lobbyist, suggest to me he isn't ready to sell anytime soon. What good are they if all he wants to do is flip RSV? BP has all that, in spades.

    As an armchair Stan, I'd keep elderly RSV and look to partner maternal. The BP partner would pay upfront $$ and agree to pay for development, marketing, sales and distribution. NVAX would keep low double digit royalties and be paid to manufacture the product.

    Although there are many partnership ideas, for quad flu I'd make sure I wasn't dealing with a direct competitor who might be interested in slowing development. For instance, I'd look to see if Medimmune might be interested in partnering for our quad flu antigens. FluMist has its own niche and could lever a product that came late that might contain different strains. Then, perhaps Medimmune might be interested in their own parenteral vaccine...

  • Reply to

    The platform is in the eye of the beholder

    by wily.coyote Aug 28, 2015 7:55 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 28, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    The subtext of this platform discussion is what NVAX is worth to BP in a buyout.
    The platform's worth can be fully realized, along with the non-RSV products, only if NVAX goes it alone.
    The problems with going it alone are myriad.
    Every biotech I've ever owned that was bought out I've felt somewhat cheated by BP because short shrift was given to wonderful products farther back in the pipe. Suspicion that management and insiders were enticed to sell out by offers of cushy positions at the new company, or last minute share awards, are always voiced on message boards. After going through this so many times, it started to dawn on me that the little company can only fully realize the worth of its platform (more often it is really the pipeline, not the platform) by staying independent. Think Genentech, Amgen, CELE, GILD...
    So, while part of me would do cartwheels if NVAX is sold this year at 24-30, a larger part of me wants it to go it alone. Remember, RSV is just starting its first ph3. They will need more cash to stay independent. After maternal results come in, I'd like to see NVAX partner that indication and keep elderly and all the rest for itself. They have an unbelievably mature management structure with a very strategic board. I think Stan and company can do it. But, if they sell out, I'll pocket the proceeds and move on.

    This is a great board. Been reading you guys since the fall. Thanks Wily, Lobster, et al...

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 27, 2015 9:37 PM Flag

    thank you, ML. I read everything you post on NVAX and disagree with nothing.

    I'm a physician who has been investing in biotech for 30 yrs and have learned over the years (sometimes the hard way) you are exactly right on this point. Moreover, BP won't give much value to anything not at least in Ph3. So, if a company can take their lead product to market without selling out, they will do much better in the long run; especially if they have a decent pipeline. Of course, that must be balanced against the go-it-alone risk that could leave owners poor if that lead drug gets tripped up. Sometimes one bird in the hand is better than ten in the bush. A classic fat tail dilemma.

    Regarding old vaccine employees, what happened (in general) to Dean L? He was always great on the phone. gone fishing? another co?

    fotd

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine by afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 27, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Good early data in the 16mg/kg IV dose; once per week for the first 8 wks. The excitement is coming from a decent chance this (breakthrough) will allow them to market before ph3. The trial for the combo drug that includes Enhanze is not yet recruiting.,

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 27, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    Perhaps they go it alone with elderly and other at risk adult populations and partner for maternal and/or infant.

  • Reply to

    Hmm, market at low tide and HALO

    by boar292hog Aug 21, 2015 3:56 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 21, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    Don't go on margin and you'll be fine. The world turns and the tide comes back. Always.

  • Reply to

    Monday will get worse

    by jack002812 Aug 21, 2015 4:16 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 21, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Maybe. But, here's the thing. While you are making bets on what the stock market will do day to day, many here are making bets on what a certain company will do year to year. The general market will hardly matter to HALO shareholders in six months if Ph2 PEG results are good.

    A decently knowledgeable biotech investor can make a more certain bet on a company (and a drug trial) than the world's best economist could ever make on the general market. And what chance do you or I have betting the larger market against the combined wisdom of the entire financial industry? In the end, such day trading is a loser's game.

  • Reply to

    Taken a beating but still overvalued

    by jack002812 Aug 21, 2015 12:01 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 21, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    Well, if you were short this week, you have done well. My investment strategies are buy and hold.
    You have likely made your money off the EFT traders. Most who know this company well are holding for the long term. GLTU

  • Reply to

    Taken a beating but still overvalued

    by jack002812 Aug 21, 2015 12:01 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 21, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    I did, this AM. The buy is much higher than my average price, but the share price is much more likely to be 50% higher than 50% lower in six mos.

    "anyone who owns this stock.." I own a ton.

  • Reply to

    Taken a beating but still overvalued

    by jack002812 Aug 21, 2015 12:01 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 21, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    What do you mean "they partnered PEGph20"? They have sold NO rights to the golden goose. they are simply allowing other companies to trial HALO's drug. What more could you want?

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 20, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    You are absolutely correct. Upon rejection, the bidding company could become "hostile" and make their bid known to the public. They would then try to enlist large shareholders in prevailing to the BOD to negotiate further.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine by afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 18, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    Does anyone know if their shares were converted from preferred at the IPO or did they purchase them?

    Also, why the ticker LIFE? Didn't that belong to a different, unrelated, company? A quick search of Yahoo's insider transactions shows data on a company run by Lucier Yahoo mistake, right?

    ....just doing my quarterly inspection of new cos and there is a lot here to intrigue. Seems expensive, though, and top heavy with management, for this stage of clinical development.

    Thanks for sharing whatever you know.

  • Reply to

    What value does Tom Ridge bring to ADXS?

    by gccarlin99 Aug 13, 2015 11:56 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Aug 13, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    correction: should read $180 million since leaving White House

GHDX
27.66-0.09(-0.32%)12:40 PMEDT